7 GOP Held House Seats where Dems have a good to fair chance to win

[WI_DEM]

The GOP needs to pick up 39 seats to win control of the House, however, if Dems can win several of these GOP held seats that are competitive that would mean the GOP would need to win 43-46 Dems seats to win control:

* DE-AL: The latest poll numbers show John Carney (D) leading Glen Urquhart (R) 51% to 36% in their race for Delaware's lone seat in the U.S. House.

http://whyy.org/cms/news/government-politics/2010/10/05/carney-holds-big-lead-over-urquhart-in-house-race/47435

*HI-1: In a year when voter discontent nationwide appears ready to toss out incumbents -- mostly Democrats -- U.S. Rep. Charles Djou is in position to retain his seat representing one of the nation's bluest states.

According to a new Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now poll, Djou holds a slight 3-point edge over Democrat Colleen Hanabusa, but it is within the margin of error -- a statistical tie.

In a telephone poll of 399 very likely voters in the 1st Congressional District, representing urban Honolulu, Djou was favored by 48 percent, compared with 45 percent for Hanabusa.

http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/hawaiinews/20101025_Djou_holds_slim_lead_in_congressional_race.htm

LA-2: Roughly one week from Election Day, Democrat Cedric Richmond is leading Republican incumbent Congressman Joseph Cao by seventeen points (49% Richmond / 32% Cao). In the past month, Richmond’s lead has grown while Cao’s share of the vote has decreased – indicating the momentum is with Richmond. Beyond Richmond’s existing double-digit lead, the 2nd District is poised to break strongly for Democrats up and down the 2010 ballot.

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM153_anza.html

IL-10: The third time may be the charm for Dan Seals and the Democrats. With incumbent Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) running for Senate, Seals looks like he might finally win this heavily Democratic district.

Seals has a 12-point lead over Republican Robert Dold, 49 percent to 37. Eleven percent of likely voters are undecided, according The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-poll-week-2/123969-district-by-district-illinois

FL--District 25: With the GOP's registration edge in this district eroding, Republican U.S. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart decided not to seek reelection, instead running unopposed in Republican-friendly District 21 nearby after his brother decided to retire from that seat.
Most observers consider GOP nominee David Rivera the favorite, but Democrats are optimistic about Garcia's chances and see this as one of the party's better shots anywhere in the nation this year to flip a Republican district. The D, a Democratic-leaning PAC and other outside groups have spent more than $1 million in opposition to Rivera.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/state/election-2010-six-house-seats-could-help-tip-989547.html


CA--03: Until now, the only office Elk Grove Democrat Ami Bera had sought was a student government post in his days as an undergraduate at the University of California, Irvine.

Today the 45-year-old physician is drawing national attention as he challenges incumbent Republican Rep. Dan Lungren in one of the most competitive congressional races in California.

Read more: http://www.sacbee.com/2010/10/22/3123344/novice-candidate-ami-bera-is-running.html#ixzz13TbdxN4j

WA--08: In an election for US House of Representatives in Washington State’s 8th Congressional District today, 10/21/10, incumbent Republican Dave Reichert defeats Democratic challenger Suzan DelBene 52% to 45%, according to this latest exclusive KING-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 3 weeks ago, the race is unchanged. Reichert has momentum among voters age 35 to 49. DelBene has offsetting momentum among voters age 50 to 64.

http://www.surveyusa.com/

[SCantiGOP]

1. add SC #2

That is Joe "you lie" Wilson's district. Rib Miller, who was a Marine officer in combat in Iraq, is running a very well financed campaign against him. Wilson usually doesn't win by more than 4-5% and many think this could be an upset. Miller is using the 'throw the incumbents out' theme against him. He's also bashing him for being in the top 10 in Congress for the amount of money he has spent on 'fact finding' trips, such as one to Hawaii (to view info on MIA's from Viet Nam) and one to France to, believe it or not, put flowers on the graves of US soldiers that died and were buried there in WWII.

[WI_DEM]

3. Great! anybpdy else who is aware of closer than expected GOP seats post them!

[tritsofme]

2. LA-2 DE-AL IL-10 HI-1 are the only ones really in play.

LA-2 and DE-AL are a lock, I would say IL-10 is a pure tossup, but in HI-1 Djou is probably a slight favorite.

[WI_DEM]

4. I've been reading quite a bit about that CA race

and I think there is a real potential there.