Survey USA--Governor--Kasich leads by 5, but among early voters Strickland leads by 9

[WI_DEM]

In Ohio, Attorney General Could Go Either Way, Governor is Likely GOP Take-Away, Senate is GOP Hold: 6 days till votes are counted in Ohio, Republican challenger John Kasich appears positioned to take the Ohio statehouse away from incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Strickland, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus. At this hour: Kasich 49%, Strickland 44%. But: among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Strickland has a narrow advantage (nine-points 52-43 is a narrow advantage?) Kasich will need to outperform Strickland among voters who have not yet returned a ballot.

Kasich leads in greater Cincinnati, Dayton and Columbus. Strickland leads in greater Toledo. The contest is even in greater Cleveland. Independents break 5:3 Republican. Moderates break 3:2 Democrat.

(as usual with Survey USA some of their demos don't make sense: I doubt Kasich is going to win 21% of the black vote, I doubt he is ahead with younger voters and I doubt that the contest in greater Cleveland is that close).

Senate Race:
Republican Portman Comfortably Ahead in Fight to Keep Voinovich's Senate Seat in GOP Hands: Rob Portman is well positioned to be elected US Senator from Ohio, defeating Democrat Lee Fisher, SurveyUSA polling shows. The contest is even among those who tell SurveyUSA they have returned a ballot (Actually Survey USA shows Fisher up by 3 among those who have voted already) but when all respondents are counted, SurveyUSA sees it today as Portman 52%, Fisher 37%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 6 weeks ago, Independents have moved to the Republican, who had led by 7, now by 17.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1f22648b-c2e7-4289-adc9-a634146d92c4

This poll seems to back up reports that dems have been voting in greater numbers in Ohio in early voting. We just have to keep up the GOTV work and if so I think Strickland can win the Governorship and the race for Senate will be closer than expected.

[Kdillard]

1. Hopefully Strickland can pull this off.

[peace13]

2. How in the heck can they know this stuff?

Unless...the machines will take care of the problem on Tuesday. Voting paper this afternoon. It has been living hell in Ohio for over ten years. We can only hope that Kasich does not pull or tear this one out or off!

[WI_DEM]

3. when they poll they ask if they already voted and if they have they count it

that's how they get their early voting figures.

[saltpoint]

4. Recommended with all good vibes for Ohio voters to

retain a good man, which they have in Ted Strickland.

And which they most certainly would not have in John Kasich.