Alaska Senate--another reason why McAdams may win--26% of Dems currently favor "write-in"

[WI_DEM]

(If it looks like McAdams is gaining ground--could he possibly rally many of those Dems back to him?)


The intrepid bloggers at Mudflats got their hands on this poll and published it. It's the first poll showing McAdams slotting into second place, as Republican disaster Joe Miller fades in the face of a terrible campaign, bizarre behavior, and embarrassing revelations. Note, this poll was also taken before Miller's latest scandal hit the front page of Alaskan newspapers.

Believe it or not, Miller's favorability ratings are 26/68, with 60 percent of that beng "very unfavorable". That's crazy unpopular!

Now check out the trend. I'm assuming that all the "write-in candidate" are for Murkowski. That may actually overstate her support by a point or so.

10/06 10/18 10/22 10/26
Murkowski (R) 31 32 31 34
Miller (R) 31 23 26 23
McAdams (D) 16 25 25 29
Undecided/Other 23 19 17 13



Like our previews poll, the "write-in" Murkowski lead is built in large part on Democratic support:

Write-in
Dem 26
Gop 40
Ind 29
Other 39
DK/Refused 41

Miller
Dem 1
Gop 39
Ind 19
Other 17
DK/Refused 14

McAdams
Dem 59
Gop 4
Ind 33
Other 27
DK/Refused 3



Yup, write-in gets over a quarter of Dems, which make up 16.4% of this poll's sample. Bring a;; those Democrats home, and that'd be a 4.2 percent shift toward McAdams and away from write-in. In other words, McAdams 33, Write in 31.

www.dailykos.com

[vaberella]

1. Didn't I say early on McAdams would take this?! Didn't I!!

:woohoo: I'm so glad.

[Beetwasher]

2. Yup, AK Is Most Definitely In Play!

Good news.

[elleng]

3. Good trend!

[Robbins]

4. Alaska

For awhile now I have thought a upset In Alaska was a good possabilty.Palin Is less popular than Obama In Alaska.Miller Is a
disaster with all that comes out.If Mcadams was no threat why are both Republicans and Murkowski going after him.

Alaska can be unprediable.While since gaining statehood only LBJ has been Democrat to carry It In 1968 when Nixon won Alaska Mike
Gravel was elected to the senate.In 1994 with a Republican sweep across the country Democrat Tony Knowles was elected Governor.
In 2004 Knowles was expected to unseat Murkowski.She won.In 2008 Democrats were expected to pick up a House seat here.Didn't
happen.Despite polls Ted Stevens barely lost.

As I keep saying 2010 at the end of the day may be 1982/1998 and not 1994 as the MSM wants It to be.

Also remember In Alaska Polls show Romney would beat Palin right now In the Republican Presidential Caucus.She could end up helping
Miller get the nomination but hurt him In General Election with all his other problems.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

5. K & R for a Scott McAdams victory! nt

[beac]

6. K&R! Great news!! n/t

[Cognitive_Resonance]

7. It was great to see the scene within the McAdams campaign office on Tuesday--

Wall-to-wall volunteers making GOTV calls. With McAdams moving into second place the Democrats who have been behind Murkowski as the lessor-of-two-evils now have a compelling case to come home and vote for Scott McAdams. He can and will win. The shock waves within the GOP are going to be off the chart.

http://www.scottmcadams.org/

[LiberalFighter]

8. Republicans should split their vote between Murkowski and that lady on the Ice Truck show.

She was on Letterman last nite and is from Wasilla.