"SurveyUSA included cellphones in its latest OR Gov poll & found a big difference(Dem Kitzhaber +8)"

[Pirate Smile]

@fivethirtyeight: SurveyUSA included cellphones in its latest OR Gov poll and found a big difference (Kitzhaber +8)

Kitzhaber pulls ahead in latest KATU News/SurveyUSA poll


Democrat John Kitzhaber and Republican Chris Dudley. (AP photos/Rick Bowmer)

PORTLAND, Ore. – Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Kitzhaber has pulled ahead of Republican candidate Chris Dudley by seven points, in the latest KATU News/SurveyUSA poll.

Out of 580 likely and actual voters, the poll found that 48 percent of those surveyed favored Kitzhaber while 41 percent favored Dudley, but unlike previous polls SurveyUSA also called individuals on cell phones with a live person. In past SurveyUSA polls, only a recorded voice conducted the interviews on landlines.

Kitzhaber did far better among cell-phone respondents than those called on landlines. He was 15 points ahead of Dudley among those users but only four points ahead of those called on landlines.

The poll found Kitzhaber gaining ground among men but Dudley leads among those who are “uniquely motivated” to vote this year and rarely vote during the midterms.

The poll found that Kitzhaber leads Dudley by 11 points among those who have already voted but the candidates are even among those who say they will vote. The pollsters note that Dudley will have to do better than Kitzhaber among those who have not yet returned their ballots to win.

http://www.katu.com/news/local/106348063.html

Well, there you go. A big damn difference.

edit to add - ummm Nate, I think that is +7

[Lisa D]

1. So interesting!

Thanks for posting this.

[Ferret Annica]

2. Good news, This makes me happy and I hope the poll is accurate

[neverforget]

3. We just voted for Kitzhaber today. May he beat that know nothing tall

dud of a basketball player.

[Arkana]

4. In Oregon, I'd imagine that cell phone difference is pretty considerable.

Makes you wonder what it is in other close races.

[depakid]

7. It is- and one would expect the differences to reflect urban rural preferences as well

which are rather pronounced in terms of irrational Republican party loyalty.

[Arugula Latte]

17. I know many, many liberals in Portland who only use a cell phone.

It seems to be becoming the norm, especially for the 45 and under crowd.

[Bluenorthwest]

5. Took our ballots to the elections office today

Which I love to do. Drop it off right there. My idea of fun.

[alcibiades_mystery]

6. Just as a curious historical note

John Kitzhaber's father, Albert Kitzhaber, basically invented the modern field of rhetoric and composition in the 1960's. So, if you've taken a "freshman writing" course since, say, 1973 or so, you've probably been influenced in some way by Albert Kitzhaber.

Sorry, but I just think that's cool.

[Dawson Leery]

8. What does Nate have to say about all of this.

Not that I really care anymore.

[FrenchieCat]

9. He can only look at the existing polls and analyze them......

as to what they, the polls, are saying as a whole.

In otherwords, he's pretty much useless.

[Pirate Smile]

10. This is what I found:

Still, given that there is some evidence of both a cellphone effect and a ‘robopoll’ effect, one wonders whether there are other states in which polling firms may be slightly underestimating Democratic numbers. This is one of the best and last hopes they have heading into Tuesday.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/29/sharp-changes-in-maine-oregon-governor-forecasts/#more-2897

[depakid]

13. There's a bit more to it:

The other gubernatorial race to show a significant change tonight is Oregon, where a new poll from SurveyUSA puts the Democrat, John Kitzhaber, 7 points ahead of Republican Chris Dudley. This poll reflects the largest lead that either candidate has had in any poll of the race since June, and is an improvement for Mr. Kitzhaber from SurveyUSA’s poll two weeks ago, which gave him a 1-point advantage.

Significantly, SurveyUSA included cellphones in their sample for the first time, and found Mr. Kitzhaber 15 points ahead among that demographic (versus 4 points ahead among landline users). It also found Mr. Kitzhaber leading among those who have already voted.

It is doubtful that the inclusion of cellphones accounts for all, or even necessarily most, of Mr. Kitzhaber’s gain; some of it is probably statistical noise, particularly given that the partisan breakdown in this particular poll looks fairly Democrat-friendly.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Gallup, Pew, CNN , CBS Include Cell Phone Users

The landline only holdouts are usually robocallers like PPP and Rasmussen.

[andym]

11. I've been very skeptical of the cell phone theory since the days of Dean in Iowa

when it was proposed that the polls were wrong and Dean would win due to the uncounted cell phone voters.

But this article is the first potential evidence that I've seen to say that it might actually matter.

[phleshdef]

18. The cell phone theory hold a LOT more weight when you are talking national usage in 2010...

...versus usage among Iowan Democrats in 2004.

[last_texas_dem]

12. Good news

I'd love to see the undercounting of cell phone-only folks end up being a major factor this year that shows the pollsters to have been undercounting Dems substantially when the final results come in. I wouldn't bet money that it necessarily will, considering that cell phone-only voters have no doubt been a substantial segment of the voting population for several elections now, but perhaps it will be one among several factors that have caused pollsters to overestimate Republican turnout/enthusiasm in their likely voter models.

[book_worm]

14. Pretty damn interesting! Oh, how i'd love to see mud on the faces of the pollsters/pundits

on November 2.

[davidpdx]

15. THANK GOD!!!!!!!!!!

This is music to my ears. I am an Oregon resident living overseas and got my ballot back to the county clerk three weeks early.

My vote was for Kitzhaber!!!