What Can a Down-to-the-Wire State Supreme Court Race in Wisconsin Tell Us About 2012?

[Purveyor]

ABC’s Amy Walter and Chris Bury report:

Assistant state attorney general JoAnne Kloppenburg—backed by liberals—holds a paper thin lead of fewer than 300 votes over state supreme court justice David Prosser, a conservative, in the non-partisan race. The margin is so narrow that a recount is inevitable. Judicial elections are normally dull affairs, but Wisconsin voters turned out Tuesday in record numbers--fueled by the state’s raging argument over Walker and his move to strip state employees of their bargaining. If Prosser loses he would be only the second incumbent Justice in over 40 years to lose a race for the high court seat.

So what does this all mean for 2012? The Badger state will be at the center of the political universe next fall.

To be sure, it’s always dangerous to read too much into one election. But, this wasn’t a typical down ballot election either. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel the Brennan Center for Justice at the New York University Law School estimates interest groups on both sides spent more than $3.5 million on TV ads in this race.

Even so, despite the strong showing of Republicans in the state in 2010, and Democrats’ success here in 2006 and 2008, this nail biter of an election shows that Wisconsin isn’t red or blue – but deep purple. Moreover, it indicates that this normally sleepy Midwestern state is going to be one of the most hotly contested battleground states in 2012.

MORE...

http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2011/04/conservative-justice-david-prosser-may-lose-wisconsin-supreme-court-seat-what-can-a-down-to-the-wire.html

[Vinnie From Indy]

1. hopefully it will tell candidates of all stripes that the American public

might be slow to rouse, but it is definitely pissed off when awakened.

[appleannie1]

2. It shows that when people get off their lazy asses and go vote, they CAN make a difference

[Mz Pip]

3. "Non-partisan race"

Hah! We should have non-partisan judges, but that horse left the gate decades ago. It hasn't been true in many moons. Maybe it never was true.

Of course this was a partisan race. The Walker folks pretty much said as much. so it's silly of walker to try to distance himself from the outcome of this. if WI was as thrilled with what Walker is doing then this race wouldn't even have been close; Prosser would have cruised to victory.

[jenmito]

4. Prosser was supposed to win EASILY before Walker came along, so I say this says very

positive things for us in '12.

[AnneD]

5. A throw election...

:shrug:

[FrenchieCat]

6. My understanding is that the Judge supported by Democrats

was 30 points behind, and wasn't the incumbent. My understanding is that the "R"s spent more money in the state on this race. If these are the facts, then Wisconsin is Blue......as long as folks come out and vote.

[lunatica]

7. I think it means war has been declared. War for true Democracy

Wisconsin is our Flagship.

[cliffordu]

8. Uh......Nothing.

[former9thward]

9. This election meant absolutely nothing about 2012.

Trying to predict what is going to happen 19 months from now based on an off year 'non-partisan' judicial election is a fools errand.

[alcibiades_mystery]

10. Obama will win Wisconsin by 8-10%

And these so-called political geniuses will still have their jobs, by some absurd miracle.

[vroomvroom]

11. Governor Feingold, Please!

[Pisces]

12. Republicans are fucked if they continue to attack unions and collecttive bargaining.

Can't wait to see the ads linking Scott Walker to any Republican running.

[bremmer]

13. ABC’s Amy Walter and Chris Bury report:

ok

[lunatica]

14. It tells us that fucking with teachers' unions gets you recalled

Schwartzenegger tried fucking with teachers' and nurses' unions when he first became governator and he ended up being forced to back off.

[LiberalFighter]

15. Democrats need a clear message and tie the truth that hurts Republicans

Democrats can't just run on what they will do or have done. They need to explain why they are the better choice and why Republicans are the wrong choice and the problem.

Remember...

Government is not the problem. Republicans are the problem. (And ignorant teabaggers that live under a bug infested rock)

[Bake]

16. In a matter of mere weeks since Walker raped Wisconsin's middle class

How the hell does his crony Prosser get anywhere NEAR 50%???? That's what I want to know.

Bake

[slackmaster]

17. It means voter turnout will be the key to victory in tight races

Just as it always is.

[mtnester]

18. It means 2004 all over again in Ohio

Oh yes it does.

From someone who was deep boots on the ground during that fiasco, we now AGAIN have a corrupt SOS, Governor and Attorney general in a state which just passed the most restrictive voter ID law in the land. You can bet, after redistricting and putting a thousand democratic precincts into a teeny building with 4 voting machines, that Ohio and lost of other places, will collapse under the machine unless we have a million poll watchers


edit - typo

[YvonneCa]

19. And it means we should have already...

...reformed our election process. But we haven't. BTW, have you heard of 'Video the Vote'?

http://www.videothevote.org/

[mtnester]

20. I have been involved with election protection since right before 2004

and absolutely have heard of that. The nice thing about technology NOW is we can now document easily, whereas that instant tech documentation was just not available in 2004.

[YvonneCa]

21. I agree about the improved ...

...technology. Now we just have to see that it BENEFITS democracy...and doesn't prevent it. ;)

[Imajika]

22. It tells us that our opposition is stronger than many thought...

..and that, despite what many polls indicated, an overwhelming majority of the Wisconsin public was not with us.

Regardless of who wins, this election showed us that even when the Republicans push extremely radical measures as much as half of the voting public in Wisconsin seems to support them. This was an extremely disappointing outcome.

I do not believe that even a few years ago a Governor of Wisconsin could get away with destroying the public unions, but that is what Walker has effectively if his legislation goes on to become law.

Times have changed, and NOT for the better.

[RBInMaine]

23. Nah. You aren't seeing the larger picture. From nowhere, an unknown outspent 2-1 in a 6-week cam-

paign has nearly taken down an entrenched incumbent. 19 counties flipped Dem. Huge gains overall compared to November. Other Dems had a damn good night. And this with ONLY a 33% statewide turnout. And all this happened so FAST due to this asshole Walker. I think things are just getting warmed up. Yes, I wish more Dems had turned out, but this election, with just 33% (though much higher than the usual 20%), was a virtual 180 degree turn from last November. If this had been a November cycle, there would have been higher Dem turnout and Kloppenburg would have cruised to victory. At the very least she nearly took out Prosser. Trust me, this got the RePUKES' attention. All that has saved Prosser's ass is 2-1 Koch brothers money and mainly one county with very highly motivated red voters in an overwhelming majority there. If overall trends continue, watch out because some RePUKES are going to go down in the recall elections.

[coalition_unwilling]

24. If I were a Wisconsin Repuke, I'd be shitting my pants right about

now, especially if I or my candidate is up for election or re-election between now and 2012.

And if I were Governor Walker, right about now I'd be looking for a graceful exit strategy before my backers threw me under the bus.

[Imajika]

25. Politics don't always work like that..

I appreciate your comments and I see where your coming from. At the risk of being a bit of a Debby downer though, I'd argue your not appreciating the dynamic way politics often work.

In politics, you very often have moments of opportunity. In those moments you have to strike hard, if you win a battle your success breeds further success. A certain momentum builds on your side, people see a winner and join in on the effort. If you lose the battle the initiative often fades. You can only keep a super high level of energy going for just so long before it dissipates. In this fight we had massive momentum, a just cause, tens of thousands of people willing to devote time and energy to protest, etc. The result of all that was essentially a draw.

Yes, I hear you. Prosser was strongly favored just weeks ago and we closed the gap. The problem is that while our turnout was terrific for what should have been a sleepy election - the enemies turnout was also impressive. No matter who wins it will have been in a squeaker. This election showed us that despite the hundreds of thousands of people we turned out in the street, the real righteousness of our cause that drew nationwide (even worldwide) sympathy, the impressive mobilization that was put together, etc, that we simply were not able to convince half the Wisconsin voting public that Walkers radical union busting legislation was unacceptable.