The 2012 Race Could Be a Cakewalk

[babylonsister]

The 2012 Race Could Be a Cakewalk

by BooMan
Fri Apr 15th, 2011 at 11:25:12 AM EST


William Galston, the issues director of Walter Mondale’s 1984 presidential campaign, takes a look at President Obama's reelection prospects and finds that he's vulnerable to a "credible" Republican challenger. Given the economy, I don't think this is news, but the question is whether the Republicans can produce a credible challenger. Galston acknowledges the possibility that the GOP won't field a credible candidate but he doesn't really examine the likelihood.

If the Republicans nominate someone who’s seen by the people as a plausible potential president, they’re going to be in the game unless the economy surges as it did in 1984. But they have two opportunities to commit creedal suicide: They could nominate someone too far outside the mainstream to compete effectively, as they did in 1964, or their primary electorate could force more mainstream aspirants to adopt positions that would cripple their general election chances.

I think we've already seen evidence that the Republicans are adopting positions that will cripple their general election chances. The first indicator is coming from the governor's mansions in Madison, Lansing, Harrisburg, Tallahassee, Augusta, Phoenix, and Columbus. The new batch of Republican governors are collectively overreaching in a big way and causing a major backlash. Usually, you would see it as advantageous to own the governorships in swing states, but I don't think that will be the case in 2012.

Another indicator in the willingness of Congressional Republicans to get behind Rep. Paul Ryan's budget plan which was easily eviscerated by the president in his budget speech on Wednesday. It would be one thing if the GOP could actually enact these reforms and take credit for tackling our long-term budget concerns, but they won't have the benefit of accomplishing anything remotely like what they have proposed. Instead, nearly every member of their caucuses has cast a vote in favor of destroying Medicare and slashing taxes on millionaires and billionaires. None of their presidential aspirants came out against Ryan's plan and it is unlikely that any of them will.

more...

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2011/4/15/112512/735

[BeyondGeography]

1. Should be. Won't be.

It's never easy for our side, for lots of reasons. Credulous citizenry, manipulative media, the real problem of a low-wage-led jobs recovery, home prices not producing illusory wealth for the commoners. I think Obama will win, but it won't be a cakewalk.

[nevergiveup]

2. It will likely be Romney

and he will give Obama fits with independent voters in states like Ohio and Florida. He is good looking and a smooth talker and all his flip flops won't matter. The conservatives/Republicans will fall in line as they always do. I still think Obama will win but it will be a battle to the finish line.

[babylonsister]

4. Romney's Mormonism will get in the way; iirc it did last time he ran. nt

[Exilednight]

6. It'll be Pawlenty. Romney killed himself with Republican primary voters when

Obama co-opted his HCR as government of MA.

[golfguru]

9. Trump is leading all of the repugs in latest PPP poll n/t

[blue_onyx]

11. Trump won't run

He just wants the attention.

[Life Long Dem]

3. I say...

a cakewalk too! Can't wait to see the country fire Trump.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

5. K&R for a great article.

[Logical]

7. I don't think the average GOP voter knows anything about anything. n-t

[jillan]

8. Citizens United. No more cakewalks.

[OhioBlue]

10. very, very true

I didn't think there was any way that nut job John Kasich (R) would win as Gov... He was wayyyy to extreme for Ohio and Ted Strickland (D-Incumbent) was very mainstream. Boy was I wrong. Many in Ohio are regretting their vote and many activists are regretting their lack of involvement. It doesn't change the election tho - and since we have no recall... we have 4 years of damage to our State to work against. It is just ridiculous.

[bigdarryl]

12. The economy is getting better what the fuck is he talking about

[Splinter Cell]

13. Take with a grain of salt....

This guy did work on Mondale's campaign after all, and we know how THAT turned out. :hide: