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I have an odd theory about what will happen in 2012.
OK, first off, we know that while the media will play it up as Left vs Right, the real conflict will be between Centrists vs. the Left and Right. Yes, the tea party is a Koch creation, but there are many of the left and right that are simply tired of being told to lay low during elections so as not to spook off those coveted "independent voters." On the left it is obvious; even former moderates are getting tired of Obama being Mr. Nice guy, while the far right is equally angry at Bush, with the religious right scared of Gays, and the racists (on left and right) realizing that if they do not act now, there will be too many brown people (like myself) to allow them the default position of first voice.
So, the media will focus on the two centrists, Obama and well, let's say Romney. Yes, the GOP is revving up all their people, but the media will not allow anyone who is too honest about their intent to be considered serious. The powers that be like bland people; bland keeps the masses docile. However, there is way too much discontent to accept bland, so on BOTH side, there will be challenges.
Yes, Obama will be challenged in 2012. Granted, it will be hopeless, BUT, the media cannot resist the chance to pick on Obama, so someone will come from the left, possibly Dean, maybe Wiener. However, this will help Obama a lot, as he fights best when the opponent actually tries to debate with him, as opposed to simply shouting. Obama will get to show the center he is not so far left, and then also tell the left they had their chance. Of course, it will mean that many sit this one out.
On the right, there will be a challenge, because the far right does NOT want a centrist, period! They want results NOW! This is where it gets interesting, because the tea party will try to put a Bachmann in. You will have the full known frenzy we know has been brewing in the GOP, with Fox being right in the middle. On the one hand, Fox has picked it's person, but the tea baggers will have NONE of it.
However, I would not much popcorn, because none of what I said is the REAL fight.
The fight will come in the form of independent campaigns, the campaigns run by people that know they will NEVER get the nod from either the elephants or the donkeys, but who also realize that if you can get a lot of money, you can appeal to people that hate both. Also, both Obama and Romney will have to RUN FROM THEIR BASE to get the media nod, so the void will be left. Yes, this is where Trump can come in, but it also allows a void for people more serious than him. Yes, that includes Jesse V., yes that includes Bloomberg., but even MORE so, it includes many of these so called "moderate" types that got shunned by their party. Think of Evan Bayh, think of Joe Lieberman. Of course, the way for these seasoned politicos to get in is to be the "beard" for a billionaire; to be the seasoned VP candidate that could add legitimacy to a Bloomberg or Trump. Yes, imagine Bloomberg/Lieberman or Trump/Bayh. Or even the former Governor of Florida, Charlie Crist. At the risk of getting ire, the LGBT will be looking very closely, as they are NOT happy with Obama, but would love the idea of putting in someone that would say "I am for Gay Marriage." Ariana Huffington will be ready to shoot an independent Gay=freindly candidate TO THE MOON!
Ah, but yet, there is another layer. Because by summer, the BIG story of 2012 will be that no one will really have all that much faith that anyone can win this. The two major parties will not be able to anoint a candidate that can offer anything more than "I am not the other guy." People will love the independents and primary fighter, but the media will say "these guys can never win", because they will be scared to death thinking "oh my God, so and so can actually win this." After all, Bill Clinton already proved that you do NOT need the majority of the votes to win the whole pie. There will be a scenario where the game is ANYONE's to win, because all someone will have to do is LIMP one inch ahead.
Now, there is another layer..because there are established centrists who are NOT going to let one of the oddballs win. They are the ones who have already polished up their election posters for 2016, waiting until the country has Obama fatigue. However, they also realize that if someone other than Obama wins, 2016 is down the drain, especially since the elections are a referendum against the Clintons and Bushes. Their only hope is to go to the Elephants and Donkeys and say "look, you have to shift the super delegates MY way. If you don't pick me, we will lose, and the people will look at our party and prepare to toss it in the trash can, which means your asses are the first on the bonfire. If you want the two party system to survive, you need me!" Which is why, despite the fact that both Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush has said they do not plan to run, BULLSHIT! They will not only run, but play the part of the Reluctant warrior come to save the party from itself. Jeb is already poised to do this is Tampa, and Hillary does not need to prepare, indeed, the less time she spends on stage, the more Bill can do his sales pitch of "come on, I know I messed up, but you know you want me back."
This may seem silly to some, but we live in a stranger than fiction era.
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