Megan McArdle-How Do Obama's Re-Election Chances Stack Up to Hoover's?

[Hart2008]

Here is an interesting counterpoint to Allan Lichtman's "infallible" presidential political prediction formula. As the author notes, "The problem with models is, they often work really well until they don't.":

This article is making the rounds this morning, suggesting that Obama's got a lock on 2012. According to a model designed by American University professor Allan Lichtman, which has successfully predicted every election since Reagan, Obama has enough of its thirteen "keys" to ensure that he will retain the White House in 2012. I thought it would be interesting to see how Hoover stacked up on the same model.

(Comparison of Hoover and Obama on Lichtman's key points omitted.)
...

Yet Hoover didn't just barely lose--he was beaten like a rented mule. The problem is obvious, I think: unlike the economic models that rely on external metrics, perception is doing a lot of the work here. Do we count Obama's stimulus but not Hoover's? And if so, why? I understand you might say that Obama's was larger, more effective, etc but this is a political model--it's about perception, not the economic effect, which is captured in other variables. Hoover's deficit spending was perceived as a big deal, and became an issue in the 1932 election.
...
As Joyner notes, this model weights everything equally. I submit that even if Hoover had had a few more keys--a minor military victory similar to capturing Osama Bin Laden, a wildly charismatic personality--his electoral results would not have been noticeably different. The economy just dwarfed everything else.

Completely absent from this analysis is a discussion of why no one in Congress will challenge the president, despite his falling approval numbers.

[boxman15]

1. Yet another comparison to Hoover?

What a joke. I'm sick of this ridiculous comparison. Anybody who has a basic understanding of history knows why.

[izquierdista]

2. It would be more ridiculous to compare him to FDR

He actually took on the capitalists and saved them from their own greed.

[boxman15]

7. I'd agree with the notion it's ridiculous to compare him to any prez. Why can't Obama just be Obama?

I've seen him compared, favorably or not, to Washington, Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Wilson, Hoover, FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, JFK, LBJ, NIxon, Carter, Reagan, Clinton, and Bush 43. It's ridiculous.

Barack Obama is Barack Obama.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

10. Sick and tired of DU comparing Obama to FDR, JFK, LBJ. Not only is it

political *AND* historically INCORRECT; it's incredibly demeaning and ridiculous! STOP IT!!

***********

President Obama is not FDR!!

President Obama is not LBJ!!!

President Obama is not Kennedy!!!!

President Obama is not Bush!!! :puke::puke:

President Obama is not Reagan Redux!!!!! :puke::puke::puke:

President Obama is not a Black Ninja Badass Blaxploitation movie Motherfucker whose private parts are available for viewing on demand.

No Black man's are except to his SO, and even then only with his consent. Our men's bodies do not belong to anyone else, not even metaphorically. Yes it IS different because Barack Obama is a Black man; live with it, Black people did not make things this way yet we live with this shit every single minute of the hour.

President Obama is President Obama - with his own style, manner, process, flaws, strengths, weaknesses. Stop demanding perfected ideals, because you're not going to get them.

One should not have to make this breaking news announcement 3 years into a presidency. But 3 years in, some folks seem not to have gotten the message, yet.

--- "Carmenjonze," powerfully poignant post from the Randi Rhodes Show Message Board

[treestar]

6. And we know why they are doing it

Trying to beat that into the mind of the average voter. Along with the Carter comparison.

[daa]

8. Why are you insulting President Carter?

President C"Carter created 10.3 million jobs. Obama is in the hole 2.5 million.

[treestar]

9. Why did you write such a stupid response?

Obviously I was talking about the one term experience.

And the economy was doing quite badly at that time. That was part of why Carter didn't win re-election.

[daa]

11. Stupid, no thinking Obama is better than Carter and thinking Obama

is getting a second term is stupid.

[rurallib]

3. for one thing Hoover ran against Roosevelt

who in the clown car of republican candidates in any way compares to an FDR?
(someone with photoshop skills should do up the pugs as clowns)

[Hart2008]

5. 1. The eventual GOP nominee remains a mystery, 2. An Independent run is also possible.

Lichtman's analysis relies on certain assumptions.

The fact that none of the current Repukes appear to be charismatic, does not rule out that that perception may change, or another candidate declares and wins the nomination.

Should a credible independent candidacy emerge, (Trump, Bloomberg, etc.) then the playing field changes dramatically. Incumbent Presidents do not fare well when there is a serious third candidate, e.g. 1912, 1980, 1992.

[WI_DEM]

4. So now Obama is Herbert Hoover? This place sometimes is too much.