Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, Sunday, July 10, 2011.

[Divernan]

Source: Rasmussen Reports for today, July 10, 2011

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Sunday, July 10, 2011

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 21% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19 (see trends).

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters nationwide believe that cuts in government spending are good for the economy. Just 11% think such spending cuts hurt the economy. Fifty-four percent (54%) also believe that raising taxes will hurt the economy.
The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook.

Overall, 46% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) at least somewhat disapprove.

Read more: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

---

How ironic that the majority disapproves of Obama, when he & Geithner are more than ready to compromise to give these folks what they want: spending cuts without raising taxes (at least on the wealthy or corporations).

[Drale]

1. So now Rasmussen is a crediable poll? /nt

[Divernan]

2. Zogby: June 21st, 56% disapprove Obama's job performance.

Zogby Poll: Only 38% say Obama deserves to be re-elected Updated at 5:28 PM

Zogby Poll: 67% say Nation headed in wrong direction.Obama approval 42% only 38% say he deserves to be reelected. http://t.co/L5KMkuW .
__________________________________________________________________________
Obama Job Performance Measurements between March 28 & June 21st. DISAPPROVAL of Obamas job performance NEVER DIPPED BELOW 51%, and approval numbers never topped 48%.


http://www.zogby.com/news/2011/06/30/ibope-zogby-intera... /

IBOPE Zogby Interactive Poll: Obama Approval Holds at 43%

64% Say Nation Headed in Wrong Direction

UTICA, NY - President Barack Obama's job approval rating is unchanged from earlier this month, and remains at 43%. The number of likely voters to say the nation is headed in the wrong direction also holds at 64%.

These results are from a June 17-21 IBOPE Zogby interactive poll of 2,013 voters.
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama's job as president?


June 21: 56% DISAPPROVED, 43% approved

June 9: 56% DISAPPROVED, 43% approved

May 31: 53% DISAPPROVED, 46% approved

April 25: 59% DISAPPROVED, 41% approved

[Divernan]

3. At least they can spell "credible".

Hopefully you have time to correct your spelling, it really hurts your "crediability".

Seriously, what's your problem with Rasmussen?

[Divernan]

5. Rasmussen Polls praised by Pew Center, Clinton & Carter for integrity & accuracy

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."

The Pew Center noted that Rasmussen Reports beat traditional media in covering Scott Brown's upset win in Massachusetts earlier this year: "It was polling-not journalistic reporting-that caught the wave in the race to succeed Massachusetts Senator Edward M. Kennedy." Rasmussen Reports was also the first to show Joe Sestak catching Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary race last year.

Once again in 2010, Rasmussen Reports polling provided an accurate preview of Election Night outcomes. See how we did.
Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, noted, “This was one tough election to poll and forecast. Rasmussen Reports caught the major trends of the election year nationally and in most states.”

In December 2009, a full 11 months before Election Day. A Democratic strategist concluded that if the Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot data was accurate, Republicans would gain 62 seats in the House during the 2010 elections. Other polls at the time suggested the Democrats would retain a comfortable majority. The Republicans gained 63 seats in the 2010 elections.

Rasmussen’s final 2010 projections were published in the Wall Street Journal. Scott Rasmussen noted that “it would be wise for all Republicans to remember that their team didn't win, the other team lost. Heading into 2012, voters will remain ready to vote against the party in power unless they are given a reason not to do so.”

In the 2009 New Jersey Governor's race, automated polls tended to be more accurate than operator-assisted polling techniques. On reviewing the state polling results from 2009, Mickey Kaus offered this assessment, "If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen!"

In 2008, Obama won 53%-46% and our final poll showed Obama winning 52% to 46%. While we were pleased with the final result, Rasmussen Reports was especially pleased with the stability of our results. On every single day for the last six weeks of the campaign, our daily tracking showed Obama with a stable and solid lead attracting more than 50% of the vote.

[BenzoDia]

12. "Hopefully, you have..." ;)

[elocs]

39. Any poll with which we do not agree is not credible. It's the same with Republicans.

See, we do have something in common with them. That and how we both kneel at the altars of our respective talking heads, glowing about how insightful and clever they are.

[RKP5637]

4. In ref. to your last sentence, I am convinced these guys clearly live in an

alternative universe. Frankly, when is the last time they probably had to worry much about income. None ever feels pain like those feeling it ... I don't care what they say, IMO they can't relate to what many Americans are going through, and millions of Americans are out of sight, out of mind, swept under the carpet and written off as disposable. George Carlin spoke the truth IMO about the unmitigated bullshit in this country and the absolute snow job most Americans have to listen too.

[Divernan]

6. By "these guys" I take it you mean Obama & Geithner, and I agree.

George Carlin was the Cassandra of our era - he got it absolutely right but was treated by many as just a comedian.

[0rganism]

7. so 55% of voters nationwide aren't thinking clearly...

I expect that number to go up at least 5% as the GOP campaigning gets underway seriously in the next 6 months.

Of course, Obama will do his best to placate the dimbulbs by advocating spending cuts on their social programs, financial and environmental deregulation.

Meanwhile, these same voters Obama courts will blame him as employment numbers stay high and wonder why the heating oil subsidies they relied on in previous winters are gone. They will blame gays and immigrants for the country's decline, and continue to watch Fox News and vote for Republicans.

The Great Society is on death's door, and the majority of its beneficiaries want it gone. :shrug:

[Divernan]

9. Obama could have used the bully pulpit to educate the masses

But that would have offended his wealthy backers.

[Walk away]

50. Do you honestly believe that stuff?

Can you just imagine Obama forcing the truth down the throats of a bunch of idiots who think he's a Muslin Terrorist? That would sure work.

If people are too stupid to figure out what's going on in front of them I don't think telling them will help. Most of them wouldn't trust a black man anyway.

[Cereal Kyller]

8. Why is this on LBN?

Polls aren't newsworthy, especially not the Razzies.

[Divernan]

10. Because these numbers were just released TODAY.

Read the post above with all the praise for Rasmussen polls, including the work they did on the 2008 Obama election.
Then go back to ignoring realities.

[Cereal Kyller]

23. Polls are released EVERY day

And Razzie is known for skewing Republican. Again, not newsworthy.

[Divernan]

26. Didn't realize you'd re-written the DU rules, to reflect YOUR values.

Latest breaking is within 24 yours, regardless of your opinion as to newsworthiness. You don't have to read it, you know.

[Cereal Kyller]

30. Do you WORK for Rasmussen?

You seem awfully eager to promote this.

[Divernan]

34. No! I also gave results for 2 other pollsters, Zogby & Quinnipiac.

I don't have the faintest idea who you are, but I'm a lifelong Democrat, an elected Dem. official in my hometown, and also am an unpaid member of my community's building code review panel.

[Cereal Kyller]

37. Not in your OP

But hey, I'm not obsessive enough to reply to everything: This will be my last post in this thread. Last word is yours. Goodbye and good luck.

[ClarkUSA]

11. "Nate Silver: Rasmussen Polls Were Biased And Inaccurate"

Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters.

On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.

Other polling firms, like SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University, produced more reliable results in Senate and gubernatorial races. A firm that conducts surveys by Internet, YouGov, also performed relatively well.

The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

http://civicforumpac.com/nate-silver-rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate

[Divernan]

27. Silver qualified that as statistical bias, not political bias.

In other words, one statistician disagreeing with another statistician.

[Proletariatprincess]

13. This just doesn't matter.

None of this horse race stuff does. It is all smoke and mirrors to make the peasants believe that our opinion matters. It doesn't. Neither does our vote. Our goose is cooked, folks. Doesn't matter who is in office. We are owned by our corporate masters and those we presume to elect to represent our interests, are overwhelmingly tools of the corporations. There are a few exceptions, but not enought to make a real difference, and that is by design too.
So as the late great George Carlin said, just sit back and enjoy the show, because it is all for our entertainment anyway. Nothing will change for the better in the forseeable future. In fact, quite the reverse is true. This is as good as it's going to get. Right here. Right now. Love your family and friends while you can and know these are the best of times.

[Divernan]

16. I agree - posted this because others kept throwing up this hoary old

poll about how popular Obama was with liberals. My curiosity led me to check out the latest polls.

[RKP5637]

29. Politicians come and go, but the real wealth and power remains behind the

scenes, generally not seen/heard by the peasantry, and calling all the shots. We have a royalty in this country, a definite royalty. Any not seeing that still have their noses in their HS text books.

As you said, and I agree soooo much, "It is all smoke and mirrors to make the peasants believe that our opinion matters. It doesn't. Neither does our vote. Our goose is cooked, folks. Doesn't matter who is in office. We are owned by our corporate masters and those we presume to elect to represent our interests, are overwhelmingly tools of the corporations."

George Carlin IMO was the best ever in exposing what goes on in this country and was, of course, far from being just a comedian. He was trying sooo hard to convey a message to the masses.

[ClarkUSA]

14. "Nate Silver praises Quinnipiac poll, disses Rasmussen"

Silver found that Qunnipiac polls in several states missed the final vote margin between the candidates by just 3.3 points. Quinnipiac polls, Silver found, displayed relatively little bias, just a .07 in favor of republicans.

SurveyUSA and the internet poll YouGov also scored well in the Silver post-vote analysis.

The same cannot be said, however, for the Republican-leaning Rasmussen polls, which Silver found missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, and had almost 4 point bias toward Republicans. New York's longstanding Marist Poll, and CNN/Opinion Research, also came off poorly in Silver's post-election crunching.

http://blogs.courant.com/capitol_watch/2010/11/nate-silver-praises-quinnipiac.html

[Divernan]

18. He's a newcomer struggling to compete with Rasmussen. Consider the source

I'll go with Pew, Clinton & Carter, thank you very much.

[ClarkUSA]

22. I am doing just that. Nate Silver is the best political prognosticator in the nation.

Rasmussen is known throughout the blogosphere as having a pro-Republican bias. It's revealing that you should be touting his polls, given he was BushCo's pollster in the past:

Some have raised concerns that Rasmussen words its questions in a way that favors Republicans and conservatives... "I think they write their questions in a way that supports a conservative interpretation of the world. In general, they tend to be among the worst polls for Democrats, and they phrase questions in ways that elicit less support for the Democratic point of view," said longtime Democratic pollster Mark Mellman...

ThinkProgress is concerned that Rasmussen is often cited as a non-ideological polling outfit, but records shows Rasmussed did polling for both the Republican National Committee and the 2004 re-election campaign of George W. Bush.

http://www.onewisconsinnow.org/blog/2010/01/CHrB.html

[Divernan]

28. Silver blogs for the NYTimes - which O supporters refer to on DU

along with the Washington Post - oh, what is that lovely phrase they like - I'm getting old and forgetful. Oh, I remember - "main stream media whores". So does that make Nate Silver a pimp, or what? Of course not!

From what I can gather, because I never heard of him before this thread, so I googled him, he is some kind of wundekind who designed a computer program averaging out the published poll results of lots of polling organizations who actually are the boots on the ground groups paying the costs of designing surveys, gathering the data, and publishing the data. Evidently Silver's programs are more accurate, because they include a far larger aggregate sample. So he's making money off the backs of the other polling organizations, and they are not happy about this, from the articles I read. He's not really a pollster. He's an aggregator, who writes columns relying on the work of others. Sort of On the Shoulders of Giants kind of guy. More power to him. It's the American way - build a better mousetrap, screw the competitors, etc.

[ClarkUSA]

40. Silver still has the same blog that made him famous, only now he's in partnership w/The NYT.

<< which O supporters refer to on DU along with the Washington Post >>

"O supporters"? I take it you're not one, then? :eyes:

Furthermore, comparing Fred Hyatt's right-wing WaPo with liberal-leaning NYT is like comparing apples to oranges.

Nevertheless, those who've been paying attention in the liberal blogosphere snigger at BushCo pollster Rasmussen's polls.

[Turborama]

49. Those who've been paying attention also know that Rasmussen is Faux news' favored pollster

Not only do they exclusively use his polls, he's also a frequent contributer on there.


Rasmussen: A pollster made for Fox News
http://mediamatters.org/research/201011050013

[totodeinhere]

44. But when Silver predicted last fall that the GOP would win the House some people at DU threw him

under the bus even though he ultimately proved to be correct. It seems like it's standard procedure around here to dis any poll whose results you don't like.

[ClarkUSA]

47. I don't remember that happening.

[totodeinhere]

52. Let me refresh your memory.

http://www.tradereform.org/2010/10/nate-silver-gop-to-control-house-dems-control-senate/

[Divernan]

32. Quinnipiac Poll: Obama Approval at Lowest Level Ever; all time low, major drop.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1594

April 28, 2011 - Obama Approval At Lowest Level Ever In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds

President Barack Obama's job approval rating in Pennsylvania is a negative 42 - 53 percent, an all-time low and a major drop from his 51 - 44 percent approval February 17, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Pennsylvania voters say 52 - 42 percent he does not deserve a second term, his worst showing on that measure also. In a mythical matchup, he gets 40 percent to an unnamed Republican challenger's 41 percent in the 2012 presidential race.

President Obama, who carried Pennsylvania 55 - 44 percent in the 2008 election, is underwater mostly because of his deterioration among independent voters, who disapprove of his performance 57 - 37 percent, compared to 50 - 46 percent approval in February. One reason might be his policy on Libya with 68 percent, including 65 percent of Democrats, saying the United States should not be involved there compared to 27 percent who think the Obama policy is the right course.

Independent voters say 56 - 37 percent that Obama does not deserve a second term and back an unnamed Republican challenger over the president by a smaller 36 - 29 percent margin.

[ClarkUSA]

41. Um, that's a poll dated April 28, 2011. Nice try.

:eyes:

[Divernan]

43. You're the one who cited Quinnipiac as praiseworthy according to your hero, Silver.

See your post 14.

[ClarkUSA]

45. Um, Nate Silver didn't say that out-of-date polls of any kind were relevant.

You're really desperate, eh? :rofl:

[Iliyah]

36. Nate Silver is pretty

much on the mark. I trust him well over Rass who is know as a goper pollster.

Another fair polster is PPP.

I'm not worried. Let's see in about a year once the economy starts moving upward regardless of what the gopers are trying to do in destroying the country. And no matter what some say here, I don't effing care.

[ClarkUSA]

48. I'm with you, Iliyah.

:toast:

[still_one]

15. Absolutely meaningless unless it is specified running against whom? /nt

[Divernan]

17. Others post about how high Obama's approval ratings were - here's the latest

He can't even break 50% with likely voters.

[still_one]

19. Unless you have a person running against him, either poll is meaningless /nt

[Divernan]

20. No, these polls have value - that's why politicians pay for them.

And I didn't choose to let these endlessly repetitive posts about one poll regarding Obama's popularity being over 86% to go unchallenged. Obviously, his supporters here on DU thought those polls were important. It was usually a snarky, "Well, what do you know, Obama has 86% approval ratings from self-described liberals". That was thrown out again today,but without any link so I can't tell you who did that polling.

[still_one]

21. The polls that they pay for we are not privy to. and I do understand the point you are making /nt

[Divernan]

25. It's certainly true there are private polls.

Back in the 70's I took graduate courses in statistics, and worked as a research fellow designing telephone survey research for NIMH, and also a pro bono effort for a friend who was running for state legislature. I even had occasion to meet with Lou Harris, of Harris polls.

I know how very simple it is to word the choices in multiple choice questions, and to frame the description of the results you obtain in subsequent news releases. So I take polls with a grain of salt. I'm particularly alert to statements like, "Only 10% of respondents strongly approved of (x-y-z)." That's meant to convince you that x-y-z is a real loser. That wording tells me there's a likelihood that another 50% "somewhat" approved, giving a total approval rating of 60%. But that way of reporting would go against the interest of whomever funded the research.

Many people ARE greatly influenced by polls - and I believe that "undecideds" are most influenced right on the eve of an election, because subconsciously they want to vote for a winner.

[still_one]

35. Unfortunately, I suspect you are correct, too many people are influenced by polls. It is somewhat

Like physiological warfare

[woo me with science]

46. Some more recent polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[ClarkUSA]

24. Rasmussen has polled for the RNC and he was Bush's 2004 re-election campaign pollster.

Rasmussen is known throughout the blogosphere as having a pro-Republican bias. It's revealing that you should be touting his polls, given he was BushCo's pollster in the past:

Some have raised concerns that Rasmussen words its questions in a way that favors Republicans and conservatives... "I think they write their questions in a way that supports a conservative interpretation of the world. In general, they tend to be among the worst polls for Democrats, and they phrase questions in ways that elicit less support for the Democratic point of view," said longtime Democratic pollster Mark Mellman...

ThinkProgress is concerned that Rasmussen is often cited as a non-ideological polling outfit, but records shows Rasmussed did polling for both the Republican National Committee and the 2004 re-election campaign of George W. Bush.

http://www.onewisconsinnow.org/blog/2010/01/CHrB.html

You should consider your source.

[Iliyah]

31. Where are the effing

pols showing gopers in the house and senate?

[Divernan]

33. Go to the pollsters websites & look. The way things are going,

I think the independents and a lot of others, won't care what party label a politician has - they'll just vote against all incumbents.

[ClarkUSA]

38. Follow Nate Silver on his blog. He's got the best track record of prognostication.

I also like Larry Sabato.

[unkachuck]

42. "Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove..."

"I'm sure there are days where I say that one term is enough,"

....his dream's coming true....

[StarsInHerHair]

51. well yeah 54% against tax raises ON THEM! I dont think the questions were

properly framed

[itcfish]

53. Sorry Rasmussen

is not my idea of a non-bias pollster. From what I have read, they are very right wing. Not a group I would trust.