Jonathan Chait - "The Democratic Jobs Debate As Mass Denial"

[TomCADem]

Jonathan Chait who has been frequently cited on DU offers a rather interesting take on President Obama's upcoming job proposals that points out that the House Republicans would be against anything he offers simply because it comes from him regardless of the merit of the proposals. The point where Chait is mistaken is that people will not hold Republicans accountable for blocking any efforts to stimulate the economy. The corporate media has created a pavlovian response in the American public to blame Democrats and give Republicans a free pass.

For example, even if John Boehner and Eric Cantor were to stand there and block any additional funding for disaster relief in response to Irene and other hurricanes forming in the Atlantic because of the need to cut the budget above saving lives, then people would blame the Democrats and President Obama for their lack of leadership in getting Republicans to see the light. Thus, Republicans have a strong incentive to try to torpedo the economy because the more angry and upset people become, the more likely they will blame the Democrats.

So, Chait is ultimately wrong about even pushing for a bold package for political reasons, because politically, John Boehner can stand there and say that the deficit is more important than jobs (he actually has said this with respect to laying off government employees), and he will suffer zero blowback, while Democrats will be blamed for their failure to get Republicans to see the light.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/94347/the-democratic-jobs-debate-mass-denial

Here's what everybody is missing: Nothing of significance can pass Congress. Maybe -- maaaybe -- an extended pressure campaign could force Republicans to agree to extend the payroll tax cut. But even that would have modest stimulative benefit. Anything larger has no chance of enactment. Republicans have strong ideological and partisan motives to block any further economic stimulus. Obama can try to design a strategy to exact a political toll for Republican obstruction, but he can't design a strategy to result in passing any significant new stimulus.

The moderates who think Obama can whittle his proposals down to the point where Congress will let them sail through simply haven't been paying attention to the GOP's strategic decision to deny Obama bipartisan cover. And the liberals who insist on a big plan seem to be in denial

* * *

That means the plan does need to be somewhat big -- anything that's too small will transparently be seen as insufficient to the scale of the disaster. On the other hand, it needs to grapple with the reality that most Americans don't support the kinds of economic stimulus that economists think we need. Now, if Obama potentially had the votes in Congress to pass another stimulus, it would be worth taking an unpopular vote in order to rescue the economy. Since Obama does not and will not have those votes, he needs to conceive of his plan as a political message. There is no point in holding a message vote when the message is unpopular.

This seems to be a reality liberals have trouble acknowledging. There are a lot of issues where the public agrees with the left. Economic stimulus does not appear to be one of them. Now, public opinion is fairly hazy and ill-informed about this, and certain elements of economic stimulus can command majorities. But the passage of the first stimulus, at the height of Obama's popularity, shows pretty clearly that people instinctively think that, when the economy is terrible, having the government spend a lot of new money is not going to help. That they're wrong doesn't really matter for the purposes of this question.

[BeFree]

1. Makes sense

So, what will sell?

How about tax cuts for hiring new workers? It's been done before.

How could the great opposition campaign against tax cuts to corporations?

Or, maybe, Obama doesn't need to do a damn thing until after the election?
That is probably what will happen. Nothing on the jobs front.

[TomCADem]

2. Chait is saying the speech is purely theater because the GOP

Will oppose anything proposed by the President.