Egypt army to dump Mubarak, retain role-expert

[Joanne98]

Source: Reuters

MUNICH (Reuters) - Egypt's army is working with the West to remove President Hosni Mubarak from power in return for keeping its behind-the-scenes dominance of the political system, a leading Western expert on the Egyptian armed forces said.

Robert Springborg, Professor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, said the army was dragging out a resolution of the crisis to "exhaust" the energy of a 12-day-old revolt against Mubarak 30-year-old rule.

The tactic would also focus the anger of the uprising against Mubarak, and not against the military-based system.

"Its political jujitsu on the part of the military to get the crowd worked up and focused on Mubarak and then he will be offered as a sacrifice in some way," he said by telephone.



Read more: http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE71504C20110206

[Tanelorn]

1. If Springborg is correct , this can't be good

Springborg gave excellent analysis of Gulf War One to an
Australian audience via the Australian Broadcasting
Corporation(ABC- public broadcaster) Unfortunately he was 
vilified by the then Australian Prime Minister Bob Hawke,
friend and supporter of chimpy's dad Bush 1

[DCBob]

2. Why? The army seems to be siding with people so this could have a "good" result...

for the people that is.

[lunatica]

3. Martial rule is anathema to Democracy

That's how I see it. So is Theocratic rule and all forms of dictatorships. The key word is 'rule'. In Democracies the people elect representatives who work at the pleasure of the people. No one 'rules'. That's an important and pivotal distinction. In this country it's the reason we have Presidential elections every 4 years and why no one can be President for more than 8 years. It's also why the House has elections every 2 years.

A lot of Republicans have become very confused about the balance of power our Democracy has. They believe themselves to be rulers, not servants which is why they're trying to break the system with plutocracy and oligarchy. Both of which entail governing by ruling by elites at the expense of the people.

[DCBob]

4. Who said anything about martial rule?.. I think the idea is to throw the dictator out..

and let the democratic process begin. IMO, without army cooperation, nothing "good" will happen. I think the people trust the army. Lets just hope the army will allow real reform.

[lunatica]

5. I hope so too.

The Egyptian military have already acted out of character by refusing to go to war against the people, which in essence means they refuse to back Mubarak. Maybe they'll continue doing that. What worries me is that these protests are leaderless which means the military can step in to fill the vacuum rather than back someone picked by the protesters. I had expected to hear of someone being chosen by the crowds by now. If someone's name is being brought up I've missed it. El Baradei seems to be pushing himself, rather than being pushed forward as a candidate.

[DCBob]

7. Yes, that is the problem.. it appears to be a leaderless revolution..

In some ways thats good but at some point someone has take the lead otherwise the vacuum will be filled by someone perhaps as bad a Mubarak. Not sure ElBaradei is the guy... he doesnt seem to be inspiring the masses... not yet anyway. I like the guy and I think he might be just the right person they need right now. We will see.

[DLnyc]

8. Some leaders have stepped forward, but have been arrested by the police.

Egypt police arrest ElBaradei campaigners
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/egypt-police-arrest-elbaradei-campaigners

I have heard nine others were arrested in a separate incident, but I can't find a link yet.

A 'gradual transition' may not work in this case; I think this situation requires immediate removal of Mubarak and an immediate end to emergency powers (that allow the arrest of youth leaders, for example). Anything less just permits a gradual strangulation of the opposition. And, sadly, I don't mean that in a metaphoric sense.

If I were an Egyptian today, I'm thinking I would be happy to see the army step in and escort Mr. Mubarak down to his vacation home in the Southern Sinai and immediately end emergency rule, release political prisoners and allow access to internet and news in general.

[No Elephants]

10. Springborg sure said something about military rule.

[brooklynite]

6. revolutions never lead immediately to elections...

Elections take time to organize and parties take time to form. Some structure has to be in place in the meantime. In Egypt, the Army is probably the most stable structure that could generate a measure of trust among the population.

[No Elephants]

9. Perhaps you missed the "If Springborg is correct" part of Reply #1?

IF the military has been the real power in Egypt all along and is using Mubarak as a scapegoat now, as Springborg claims, how is this a good thing?

(Not saying Springborg is correct.)