This quake wasn't the Big One

[charlie]

Not the great Tokai earthquake Japan has been anticipating for decades. This quake involved the Pacific and North American plates:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0001xgp.php

The Tokai will come from the Philippine and Asian plates:

The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2005, it has been 151 years and counting.

http://geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/a/aa_tokaiquake.htm

Japan still has another imminent major quake hanging over her :(

The release of energy from Friday's event – which happened along the subduction zone between the Eurasian and North American plates - will have have no effect on alleviating the pressure building up between Eurasian and Philippine plates, where the Great Tokai quake is predicted to happen.

So after Japan picks up the pieces from this disaster, it will have to start preparing for what could be another one.

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/11/preparing-for-the-great-quake

[HereSince1628]

1. Oh, That is comforting

NOT!

[yawnmaster]

2. Well why weren't they anticipating this one for decades, too? eom

[godai]

5. Japan is about as well prepared as possible.

They have drills, shelters, food packs, blankets etc. None of that can stop a 30 foot wall of water. Most of the destruction seems to have been from the tsunami.

[Taverner]

That's what makes this one so scary

[yawnmaster]

17. I mean if they have been anticipating a big one on the other plates, why haven't...

they anticipated one one these plates for decades.

[godai]

27. No way to stop a 30 foot wall of water.

It probably was only a few minutes before the tsunami hit and it was so high, that anything in it's path was demolished. It was unstoppable. It went 6 miles inland at some points.

[yawnmaster]

29. I didn't say prepare against it! I said anticipate it. predict it...like they are doing...

for the other plates. They anticipate a really big one but it wasn't this one...so why didn't they also anticipate this one?

[godai]

31. I guess it's that it is not possible to predict earthquakes.

Japan had a small earthquake Wednesday. I did hear today that there will be study if that earthquake could have been an early warning. But, what could you do? Evacuate areas and wait? Earthquake prediction basically is not possible.

[yawnmaster]

19. Is something that is predicted for decades still a prediction? I mean, how long...

can you wait for something before you can't say "I told you!".

For me, I don't feel big prediction windows are very useful.

"I predict my car is going to break down" is not really a prediction, in my opinion.

on edit: didn't mean to reply to myself, but you get the message.

[ReggieVeggie]

3. Has Hawaii been hit yet?

I heard the wave might be about 10ft

[Angry Dragon]

7. It has made its way to California already

[ReggieVeggie]

8. Oh! thought they forecast it for 7p local time

[HuckleB]

11. AM...

Crescent City, CA and Brookings, OR, where the most damage actually occurred were hit between and 8 and 9 or so this morning.

[dipsydoodle]

21. I think it may have been a bit less than that.

Nothing like this anyway : The Waterboys - This is the Sea-Riding Giants http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hk469q3-EIc

[Hannah Bell]

4. the last tokai was an 8.4, this is 8.9 or higher. i think it's a big one being as it's

smethig like the 5th biggest one in recorded history.

[WheelWalker]

13. It's big enough. I agree. nt

[charlie]

16. I don't mean yesterday's wasn't big

I mean it wasn't THE big one they've been waiting for. When I was in Kanagawa in the late 90s, the Izu peninsula had a summer of seismic swarms, with dozens of quakes a day. Everyone was antsy that it was the precursor for the Tokai quake.

Japan has had Tokai dangling over it like a sword for years, and it's still there.

[hunter]

6. I'm in California. Not looking forward to ours.

Especially after seeing this one.

:scared:

[JuniperLea]

9. I hear ya!

I'm on the 39th floor of a 60+ floor highrise...

[slackmaster]

12. Same here. I need to inspect and re-assert my disaster preparations.

I think it's time to rotate drinking water and verify that my gasoline stove works.

[HuckleB]

10. Unless they have evidence of consistent Tokai quakes going back much farther than that...

..., I'm not sure one can put much stock into this supposed average. There may have been many reasons why those massive quakes occurred in relative close proximity to one another. There is no real way to use the averages of years between those few quakes as a true predictor of the next quake.

[KamaAina]

14. We have a similar situation in the Bay Area

where the Hayward fault goes off every 140 years, give or take -- and the last one was in 1868. This would "only" be about a magnitude 7, but the fault runs directly through not only its namesake city of Hayward, but nearby Oakland and Berkeley as well (as a matter of fact, directly under Cal's football stadium, presently undergoing seismic retrofitting). And we just saw what even a comparatively measly 6.3 can do when it's right underneath a city, to wit, Christchurch, NZ. :scared:

[dipsydoodle]

15. Is that the one

where the plug comes out and the Pacific drains away somewhere ? :shrug:

[Posteritatis]

18. It's the one where everything east of the San Andreas plunges into the Atlantic. (nt)

[femrap]

20. No, it's the one where everything

west of The Rockies becomes an array of various islands.

[malaise]

22. Tell me about the big one for Jamaica

We're overdue

[BrklynLiberal]

23. Wow! Makes one feel very vulnerable no matter where one lives.

[yawnmaster]

24. One is always vulnerable to something, but alas, such is life...

except Charlie Sheen who is invulnerable and full of tiger blood.

[snot]

25. Does this quake result in more stress on any of the other Pacific fault lines, including

any affecting California?

[roamer65]

26. When the Pacific plate repositions like this....

expect movement along other fault lines to compensate for the differing pressure. This movement is not good for the San Andreas, IMHO.

[Baclava]

28. It's big enough, indeed

Remember, it's not a movie

[PhillySane]

30. Whenever I hear that term

I laugh. The big one. We've only been measuring these things for 100 years. How the fuck do we know what is big?