Dean Baker: "The Real Story Behind Job Creation"

[amborin]

The Real Story Behind Job Creation

March's job numbers were greeted rapturously by the business press. Scratch the surface of the data and things are not so rosy
When the labour department announced that the US economy had created 216,000 jobs in March, it set off a round of celebrations throughout Washington policy circles. The word in the New York Times, the Washington Post and other major news outlets was that the economy was back on course; we were on the right path.

Those who know arithmetic were a bit more sceptical. If the economy sustained March's rate of job growth, it will be more than seven years before we get back to normal rates of unemployment. Furthermore, some of this growth likely reflected a bounceback from weaker growth the prior two months. The average rate of job growth over the last three months has been just 160,000. At that pace, we won't get back to normal rates of unemployment until after 2022.
That's a long time to make ordinary workers suffer because the folks who run the economy are not very good at their job.

In addition to the job growth numbers, the March data also showed that the unemployment rate slipped down by another 0.1 percentage point. It now stands at 8.8%, almost a full percentage point below its year ago level of 9.7%. This, too, was treated as cause for celebration. While that may sound like progress, a more careful look at the data makes this number less impressive. The percentage of the population that is employed has actually fallen by 0.1 percentage point over the last year.

In order to be counted as unemployed, you have to say that you are looking for work. The unemployment rate did not fall because the unemployed had found jobs; rather, the unemployment rate fell because people have given up looking for work. Only in Washington would this be hailed as good news.

snip

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/04/05-6

[Vinnie From Indy]

1. K&R

Smoke and mirrors begin to lose their effectiveness when millions are faced with no jobs and hungry mouths to feed. People get a bit more focused on the source of their pain.

[Coyote_Bandit]

2. And still

the dumbshits in Washington refuse to address our fundamental economic problems. They want to stimulate a consumer based economy rather than begin a transition to an economy based on real productivity. Those consumer based economies ultimately are unsustainable.

[WatsonT]

3. I'm pretty sure the numbers will get really nice right around election time

[RaleighNCDUer]

4. how much of the fall in unemployment can be attributed to the 99ers

not getting unemployment extensions and thus falling off the far end of the chart?

[Donnachaidh]

7. the 99ers group has been steadily increasing - but are not newsworthy

And are effectively disappeared by *both* sides, when the pr campaign for *recovery* is in full swing.

"99ers? There's no such thing in America! What are you talking about?"

:sigh:

[whattheidonot]

9. catch 22

i am a 99er i am caught in the catch 22. When I look for a job they ask how long i have ben unemployed. It is downhill from there.

[Donnachaidh]

10. I totally understand -- my DH was out of work for 18 months

There's a special level in hell for Democrats who don't think it's good pr to acknowledge the millions being ground down by this Depression.

[Skidmore]

5. I have to other questions regarding employment/unemployment if anyone has answers for them.

1) How many of these new jobs were actually created in the US? We've had the experience over a couple of years of finding that new jobs were created that were counted as part of the economy but were actually based overseas.

2) If the Rs are successful at cutting back government, what is the possible percentage of unemployed that would be added to those rolls?

[amborin]

8. some info:

"In March, employment in the service-providing sector continued to expand, led
by a gain of 78,000 in professional and business services. Most of the gain
occurred in temporary help services (+29,000) and in professional and technical
services (+35,000).

Health care employment continued to increase in March (+37,000). Over the last
12 months, health care has added 283,000 jobs, or an average of 24,000 jobs per
month.

Employment in leisure and hospitality rose by 37,000 over the month, with more than
two-thirds of the increase in food services and drinking places (+27,000).

Manufacturing employment continued to trend up in March (+17,000). Job gains were
concentrated in two durable goods industries--fabricated metal products (+8,000)
and machinery (+5,000). Employment in durable goods manufacturing has risen by
243,000 since its most recent low in December 2009.

In March, employment in mining increased by 14,000, with much of the gain occurring
in support activities for mining (+9,000).

Employment in local government continued to trend down over the month. Local government
has lost 416,000 jobs since an employment peak in September 2008...."

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

and:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm




"In 2010, 12.4 percent of families included an unemployed person, up from 12.0
percent in 2009, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The proportion
of families with an unemployed member in 2010 was at its highest level since the
data series began in 1994. Of the nation's 78.2 million families, 80.0 percent had
at least one employed member in 2010, down from 80.4 percent in 2009.

These data on employment, unemployment, and family relationships are collected as
part of the Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly sample survey of approximately
60,000 households."


http://www.bls.gov/news.release/famee.nr0.htm

[Donnachaidh]

6. "Those who know arithmetic were a bit more sceptical. "

And also are drowned out by the *We're in a great recovery* crowd.