Wisconsin Supreme Court race KLOPPENBURG vs Prosser -- Thread #3

[fishwax]

The earlier threads are getting hard to follow due to length, so here's a new thread for Wisconsin results.

Here's Tx4obama's original thread (updates continue with good info, twitter updates, etc.): http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=820845&mesg_id=820845

Here's Hokie's Thread #2: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=822657&mesg_id=822657

Currently 97 precincts left to report and Kloppenburg is 1684 votes down. Finish strong, Wisconsin!

[Control-Z]

1. Thank you.

It was definitely time for another thread.

[proud patriot]

2. whew much better

:-)

[RichGirl]

3. Milwaukee...

with 6,000 absentee ballots left to count


on edit...that's 8,000

[yourout]

4. My finger was cramping from the scroll wheel.

[MadBadger]

5. Havent seen an update in awhile

[Dawson Leery]

6. kick for later

[in_cog_ni_to]

7. Totals haven't changed for a LONG time. n/t

[bkkyosemite]

10. Seems suspicious to me

[WhoIsNumberNone]

Voter turnout was much higher than anticipated-

A lot of precincts ran out of computer-readable ballots, so they're having to hand count a bunch with little check boxes on them.

[WhoIsNumberNone]

17. Voter turnout was much higher than anticipated-

A lot of precincts ran out of computer-readable ballots, so they're having to hand count a bunch with little check boxes on them.

[fishwax]

8. Here's a list of precincts remaining

I posted this in the other thread as well, but since nothing has updated in a while I'll post it again:

Heavy Republican (5): Calumet (1), Jefferson (1), Manitowoc (1), Oconto (1), Taylor (1)
Lean (less than 55%)`Republican (33): Buffalo (1), Marathon (32)

Lean Democratic (16): Adams (1), Dunn (6), Juneau (1), Sauk (8)
Heavy Democratic (43): Ashland (6), Crawford (2), Dane (1), Eau Claire (21), Milwaukee (12), Portage (1)

On edit: I mistakenly had Adams in the "lean republican" category.

[fishwax]

34. after the latest updates

Heavy Republican (4): Jefferson (1), Manitowoc (1), Oconto (1), Taylor (1)
Lean (less than 55%)`Republican (33): Buffalo (1), Marathon (32)

Lean Democratic (13): Dunn (4), Juneau (1), Sauk (8)
Heavy Democratic (42): Ashland (6), Crawford (2), Dane (1), Eau Claire (21), Milwaukee (12)

[Generic Other]

9. If it wasn't so late I'd get drunk!

The suspense is killing me!!

:banghead:

[Skip Intro]

15. I had no idea it'd be this close or go so long, but I started drinking early just in case...

:toast:

[Hokie]

11. It looks like the absentee ballots will decide this

I saw in another thread there are 8,000 uncounted in Milwaukee.

[in_cog_ni_to]

14. And they're expected to lean Kloppenberg.

I hope that's TRUE!

[Bumblebee]

18. but what about the actual precincts in M. that are still uncounted?

[in_cog_ni_to]

19. Pulling a Chicago?

Holding out until they see how many votes Kloppenberg will need to win?

[Bumblebee]

20. hope you are joking :-)

[in_cog_ni_to]

31. I am.

:evilgrin: You never know though...especially these days!

[katanalori]

12. I am following the tweets, this from 3 SECONDS AGO

RT @lemonton: Chances are favoring Kloppenburg! Watch Marathon county. #WI #wiunion #recallgop #recall #p2

[in_cog_ni_to]

21. I hope they're favoring her ENOUGH!

O-M-G.......

[Dawson Leery]

23. AP results link

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/WI_Supreme_Court_0405.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[brentspeak]

28. ?

[stevenleser]

13. Have they suspended counting for the night? Seems so to me. n/t

[Skip Intro]

16. What? They do that? nt

[TygrBright]

26. No. Six more Marathon Co. precincts just reported.

Hasn't widened Prosser's lead much. I think we're gonna see it go down to the wire and possibly to a recount.

But I still think Kloppenburg will pull it out.

optimistically,
Bright

[bbgrunt]

22. latest from jsonling

Supreme Court REPORTING 97%
David Prosser (inc)

726,750
50%
Joanne Kloppenburg

724,651
50%

[jpgray]

24. Update-Kloppenburg down ~2100

P 726,750
K 724,651

[Shiver]

25. Just changed.

Kloppenburg now down by 2,099

[jpgray]

29. Now down ~1900

[Shiver]

33. Goddamn...

I haven't been this nervous since Nov 4, 2008...

[yourout]

27. Need this one to finish a good election.....cleaned up the villiage board, school board, and...

elected Joe Parisi Dane County Executive.

Just need Klopp to win and finish the sweep.

[bbgrunt]

30. jsonline:

Supreme Court REPORTING 98%
David Prosser (inc)

727,208
50%
Joanne Kloppenburg

725,205
50%

[gateley]

32. Kick (like it need it) nt

[demwing]

35. Supreme Court REPORTING 98% Prosser leads by 2000

David Prosser (inc) 727,208 = 50%
Joanne Kloppenburg 725,205 = 50%

[demwing]

41. 1906 /nt

[RBInMaine]

36. Has other good news happened tonight? County Exec races? Others? Clue me in.

[Zynx]

37. Took Milwaukee and Outagamie County Executive races.

[yourout]

38. Dane County as well.

[in_cog_ni_to]

39. Yes. A win in County Exec race. link:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=822118&mesg_id=822118

[Shiver]

42. Kept Dane County Exec in the blue

Parisi won. Still trying to find out about 17th district Alderman. My friend was running for that seat...

[AllyCat]

40. It should not be this close. I cannot believe people have been all over the state

canvassing, protesting, and rallying the vote for record turnouts to favor the same old same old??? I must be careful saying this because twice today I've been accused of being a troll for suggesting that high turnout means people want to make changes.

What the F*** is wrong with this state? I've never been one to think shenanigans have gone on here with voting machines. However, in 2004, I remember trying to work on the effort to count votes and thought it interesting that precincts that posted 0 votes in 2000, suddenly had 18-several hundred all voting for Bush. I think if we actually COUNT the paper ballots, maybe we would get a real number. The optical scanners are made by ES/S which is worrisome.

I think a recount might just be a good thing if the PTB will actually let us count them without stopping it ala 2000.

[demwing]

66. Actually, it's no surprise - this was always an uphill battle

Its good to be a sitting Judge

[fishwax]

43. On average, the precincts remaining favor Kloppenburg by 54%

That is to say, if the outstanding precincts follow the pattern of the reported precincts in their given counties, then Kloppenburg should claim 54% of the remaining vote.

On 2nd edit: my math was way off on the number of outstanding votes needed. :dunce:

[WhoIsNumberNone]

44. Kloppenburg still down by 2000, but I think she'll pull it out:

Most of the counties still in play favor Kloppenburg
-Marathon w/ 32 precincts still out favors Prosser 54-46%, but reports are that those remaining precincts are in Wausau (sp?) which should favor Kloppenburg- End result could be closer to 52-48% Prosser
-Milwaukee still has 12 precincts out, and favors Kloppenburg 57-43%
-Dane County still has 1 precinct out and favors Kloppenburg 73-27%

Several thousand absentee ballots still to be counted thus far are favoring Kloppenburg roughly 2-1

[sfpcjock]

60. Oh yea!

good on her

[ThatPoetGuy]

45. I think it looks good.

6 districts in Ashland, where she's winning 71/29.
1 in Buffalo, where she's losing 47/53.
2 in Crawford where she's winning 59/41.
1 in Dane where she's winning 73/27.
6 in Dunn where she's 54/46.
11 in Eau Claire where she's 60-40.
1 in Jefferson where she's 42-58.
1 in Juneau where she's 52-48.
1 in Manitowoc where she's 39-61.
32 in Marathon where she's 46-54 (this isn't good)
12 in Milwaukee where she's 57-43.
1 in Oconto where she's 43-57.
8 in Sauk, 55-45.
1 in Taylor, 39-61.

So by my calculations, she takes 53% of the remaining votes.

[RBInMaine]

46. Not including absentees?

[ThatPoetGuy]

62. Not including absentees.

And on the assumption that the districts will continue the same split, I call 53/47 split for Kloppenburg for the remaining districts.

[WhoIsNumberNone]

50. Reports are that the remaining precincts in Marathon-

are from the city of Wausau, and include a lot of students, both of which favor Kloppenburg. Marathon could close up to arounf 52/48 Prosser, and Milwaukee(12) + Dane Co(1) should be enough to overcome that.

[WhoIsNumberNone]

61. OK I stand corrected- Marathon is in and remains 54/46 Prosser

But it's not a very big county compared to Dane and Milwaukee, plus all the other counties still in play favor Kloppenburg. Add the absentee ballots & early voting which are still being counted and I think we have a win.

[in_cog_ni_to]

54. Did you calculate absentee ballots (8,000) which are suppose to lean her way? n/t

[fishwax]

47. MARATHON is in! Prosser's lead is less than 2k

[blogslut]

48. This is crazy neck-and-neck stuff

...this Kloppenburg/Prosser race.

[Zorra]

49. Marathon is done! I think we're gonna win!

[fishwax]

52. yes!

[fishwax]

51. 55 Precincts left -- only *2* in counties that favor Prosser

:woohoo:

[Paradoxical]

55. How many votes are from each precinct?

[fishwax]

63. About 550 in one and 200 in the other

That's based on the average votes-per-precinct in those two counties thus far.

[Paradoxical]

65. So not enough to make up a 1900 vote lead.

[fishwax]

73. That's just in the 2 precincts that favor Prosser -- the rest of the 53 precincts outstanding favor

Kloppenburg.

[Paradoxical]

108. Oh alright I misread.

[rpannier]

Jefferson and Taylor

Jefferson has cast 22,000 votes
and Taylor 5,900 votes

They're not large

[W_HAMILTON]

56. Yeah...

...looks like the Republicans got tired of withholding their vote totals :)

Now, release the rest and let us go to bed! I gotta get up in a few hours and study for an exam, dammit!

[fishwax]

114. I feel your pain -- I need to crash soon too

but I was sure hoping Kloppenburg would reclaim the lead before I had to go to bed :)

[bkkyosemite]

53. Marathon 100% in Milwaukee still out

Taylor 29/30 1 left

61% 3,602 P

39% 2,266 K

******

Sauk 31/39 8 left

6,166 45% P

7,625 55% K

*****

Milwaukee 474/486 12 left

95,129 43% P

125,090 57% K


*****

Marathon 100% IN........******

[bkkyosemite]

58. Sorry did not finish got too excited that Marathon was in while putting info up :-)

[TygrBright]

57. I can hear a junoesque female singing scales and arpeggios.... n/t

[RichGirl]

59. Michael Moore tweet....8 mins ago

1/3 of Eau Claire county hasn't reported and its been going 60/40 for Kloppenburg, a lot depends upon that

[Tx4obama]

67. Eau Claire Country is hand counting ballots

Here's the tweet from Think Progress: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=439&topic_id=820845&mesg_id=823552

[Arkana]

64. Dammit, cheeseheads, you better do this thing.

I don't want to have to swear off politics for another month like I did after November.

[yourout]

68. Watch the freepers heads explode when the rest of Milwaukee, Eau Claire, and Madison come in and....

we take the lead just outside the automatic recount number.

[demwing]

75. I don't think there's an auto recount threshold

but if the total vote difference falls short of 0.5%, then the recount is free, so it might as well be automatic :) Btw, Kloppenburg just jumpe to within 600 votes - thats a 0.04% difference!

[RichGirl]

69. another mm tweet

How does an unknown Dem attorney bring a 30-yr incumbent conservative justice within inches of ending his judicial career

[fishwax]

70. 55 Precincts remaining, and they ought to break about 59% for Kloppenburg

If the votes in the remaining precincts follow suit with the reported precincts for their given counties, the votes outstanding should favor Kloppenburg by almost 60%.

[fishwax]

79. At that rate, Kloppenburg should take the lead if about 10500 more votes are counted

If my math is correct. Which it may not be.

[bbgrunt]

71. jsonline:

RESULTS as of Wednesday, Apr 06, 2011 at 01:03 am CDT
Election Home
Supreme Court REPORTING 98%
David Prosser (inc)

728,203
50%
Joanne Kloppenburg

726,325
50

[demwing]

72. Marathon is closed, Prosser really has no where else to find votes

and Milwaukee and Eau Clair are still wide open!!!

[Skip Intro]

74. I think she might just do it...

[yourout]

77. If it holds to form the one remaining Dane County precinct will net over 500 votes for us.

[Skip Intro]

87. Difference now less than 600 with that lone Dane precinct still out

[WhoIsNumberNone]

76. 55 precincts left to report- 13 of them in Dane Co and Milwaukee

Jefferson Co (1) and Taylor Co (1) are the only ones that favor Prosser.

[ThatPoetGuy]

78. Almost all the remaining distrcts will favor the good guys.

6 districts in Ashland, where she's winning 71/29.
2 in Crawford where she's winning 59/41.
1 in Dane where she's winning 73/27.
6 in Dunn where she's 54/46.
11 in Eau Claire where she's 60-40.
1 in Jefferson where she's 42-58.
1 in Juneau where she's 52-48.
12 in Milwaukee where she's 57-43.
8 in Sauk, 55-45.
1 in Taylor, 39-61.

I call 57% of the remaining votes for Kloppenburg, not counting the absentees.

[BzaDem]

80. FINAL EAU CLAIR NUMBERS are out. Kloppenberg nets an additional 1283 (not on AP yet)

http://www.co.eau-claire.wi.us/eau_claire/Elections.pdf

This puts Kloppenberg within about 600 of winning.

[Lisa0825]

81. Holy shit!

Supreme Court REPORTING 99%
David Prosser (inc)

733,074
50%
Joanne Kloppenburg

732,489
50%

down only 585!!!

[in_cog_ni_to]

85. Yiiiiiiikes! I can't take this!!!!!

:banghead:

[TacticalPeek]

82. I hope she wins by 537 votes.

:smoke:

[demwing]

83. Why's that? Am I missing a joke, it's late...

'splain Lucy

[BzaDem]

84. That was Bush's "margin of victory" in Florida 2000. n/t

[demwing]

88. derp

herp derp

[in_cog_ni_to]

89. Heh...wouln't that be sweet.

:smoke:

[jpgray]

86. Kloppenburg now down by only 600!

gogogogogo

P 733,074

K 732,489

[W_HAMILTON]

90. I don't see how she can lose.

Unless almost all the remaining districts go completely away from where they have been leaning, or they all magically go to 100% reporting with no change in vote totals, she should readily be able to make up the ~600 vote difference.

[yourout]

92. Ashland County alone might be able to make it up.

[kevinbgoode]

93. ugh...she needs to average about 18 more votes than him

in each of the remaining 34 precincts to eke out a win

[eowyn_of_rohan]

91. That leap brought to us by Eau Claire County - Thanks up there!

[fishwax]

94. yeah, she should make that margin up with Milwaukee county

:kick:

[brentspeak]

95. Dane is actually closed; there is no outstanding Dane precinct to report

Even though AP is still listing it incomplete.

[kevinbgoode]

96. :(

now I'm biting the skin under my nails!

[aquart]

126. So what was Dane's final tally?

[WCGreen]

97. 6 prec out in Ashland county, K with 71% of vote there

1 prec in Dane County, K with 73% of vote there

2 out in Dune County, K with 55%

1 out in Jefferson County, K with 42%

1 Out in Juneau, K with 52%

12 out in Milwaukee, K with 57%

8 out in Sauk, K with 55%

If these trends hold, she wins with about 700-1,000 votes

[brentspeak]

98. Dane is closed; AP in error is listing an unreported precinct n/t

[WCGreen]

100. That's only 1 precinct....

Still, she is down by about 585 votes, the trends point to her...

It will e close, under 1000 votes, but I believe, if the trends hold, she wins...

[RichGirl]

99. Mark Ruffalo tweet

Okay. I will try to sleep and hope that when I wake Santa will have left us all a big ole Kloppenburg in a bow.

[fishwax]

101. I estimate 12000 votes left in 34 precincts -- Kloppenburg needs to make up 585 votes

Based on the average number of votes per precinct and the average advantage for Kloppenburg based on precincts counted in the precincts remaining, Kloppenburg should make that up with about 1000 votes to spare.

I estimate about 12600 votes left to be counted, with 7200 going to Kloppenburg. That would give her about 739700 to Prosser's roughly 738500.

On edit: brentspeak said upthread that Dane county is actually closed and that the AP is error in listing one remaining precinct, which would make it about 350 votes closer--still giving Kloppenburg about a 800-1000 vote edge.

I don't know why I'm bothering crunching these numbers, though, since a recount seems pretty likely :)

[in_cog_ni_to]

102. What's going on in Milwaukee????? The same # of precincts were reported HOURS ago. n/t

[eowyn_of_rohan]

103. Campaign says justice prosser coming out soon to make a statement.

from tweets

[in_cog_ni_to]

104. I hope it's to concede. n/t

[Control-Z]

105. Do republicans do that?

I just can't imagine, especially with the race so close.

[in_cog_ni_to]

107. You're right. It's probably way past his bedtime. n/t

[eowyn_of_rohan]

109. says, "I had a rip-roaring victory speech prepared".

Says he also had a concession speech. But he didn't have a speech for "an impasse".


... don't want to hold people here. I want to go to bed. Little doubt of a recall.
Twitter - 1 minute ago
... Not sure what's actually out, or what's real. expects good results but wants to go to bed. Thank you all

[TygrBright]

110. He wishes. I think by the time they count all the absentees...

Kloppenburg's margin of victory will be comfortable and the inevitable recount will be merely symbolic.

"impasse" indeed.

cynically,
Bright

[eowyn_of_rohan]

113. He's such an arrogant little baby - here's more

"We've withstood the greatest assault on a person's character in the history of the Wisconsin judiciary..."--- David Prosser
‎"We've weathered the nuclear blast, and I'm still standing...

Prosser says he had a victory statement ready, he had a concession statement ready, but did not prepare a statement for a deadlock. He expects he will hold his slight lead and will win the race. A recount is all-but-certain. (1:41 AM)
.News/Talk 1130 WISN

[Tx4obama]

106. New chart from Swing State of remaining precincts NOT reported

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/8654/april-5-election-results-thread-6

[BzaDem]

112. !!! It looks like Kloppenburg just shrunk the margin again by 229 from Dunn county

http://dunncountywi.govoffice2.com/vertical/Sites/%7B8D65D186-760D-414B-890C-7C4376A23107%7D/uploads/%7BE4AC129D-C3C7-4ED9-B527-151C95E85EA3%7D.PDF

Not yet reported on AP!

[fishwax]

120. Yes!

:kick:

[eowyn_of_rohan]

111. Prosser just came out and said...

"We've withstood the greatest assault on a person's character in the history of the Wisconsin judiciary..."--- David Prosser
‎"We've weathered the nuclear blast, and I'm still standing...

Prosser says he had a victory statement ready, he had a concession statement ready, but did not prepare a statement for a deadlock. He expects he will hold his slight lead and will win the race. A recount is all-but-certain. (1:41 AM)
.News/Talk 1130 WISN

[W_HAMILTON]

A Republican who is currently ahead saying there will be a recount...

...means he fully expects to be behind when the votes are all in, and he will expect a recount :)

You can be sure if he expected to remain in the lead, he would have declared victory.

[in_cog_ni_to]

121. I agree. And to go to bed when you're ahead by just a few hundred votes?

Me thinks he knows more than we do.

[fishwax]

116. *Prosser* has been the victim of character assault? That's not how I've been hearing it

Yeesh. :eyes:

[kevinbgoode]

122. I get so tired of supposed "conservatives" being such drama queens

must they exaggerate everything? Someone should mention to them that there isn't anything "conservative" about being overly dramatic about everything everytime they open their mouths. . .

just sayin'....:)

[aquart]

123. Milwaukee and Dane still have unreported precincts.

MILWAUKEE AND DANE!

[Tx4obama]

125. More from a reporter on Twitter

From http://twitter.com/News3David

# Prosser: "We weathered the nuclear blast, and I'm still standing". #badtiming #japan #tobefairits143am 11 minutes ago via TweetDeck


#

Prosser calls Kloppenburg a "distinguished opponent". Says he feels he "sustained" an assault on his character. 12 minutes ago via TweetDeck

#

Prosser: "I had a rip-roaring victory speech prepared". Says he also had a concession speech. But he didn't have a speech for "an impasse". 14 minutes ago via TweetDeck

#

Prosser: "It's past my bedtime here". Thanks people for coming out for "historic election". 15 minutes ago via TweetDeck

#

Prosser at lectern. 17 minutes ago via TweetDeck

[BzaDem]

115. If you add in the final votes from Dunn county not on AP's site, she is now down only 356!

[demwing]

117. You beat me!

just did the math myself... :)

Here's a link to the county site:
http://dunncountywi.govoffice2.com/vertical/Sites/%7B8D65D186-760D-414B-890C-7C4376A23107%7D/uploads/%7BE4AC129D-C3C7-4ED9-B527-151C95E85EA3%7D.PDF

[RBInMaine]

118. With almost all blue boxes to go, right?

[BzaDem]

119. Yup. n/t

[demwing]

128. yep

and the current difference between the two (356 votes) works out to 0.02% Even if She loses (she wont) it will go to a recount. In this state, we're safe - SoS is a true Dem.

[fishwax]

124. I was really hoping for a "boom goes the dynamite" kind of moment before having to call it a night

But it looks like it might yet be a while before she actually takes the lead. I'm confident, though, that she will, even if it's after I've wandered off to dreamland. :)

[in_cog_ni_to]

127. Nite! I hope you wake up to good news! n/t

[FreeState]

129. 2:58am update Posser +584

County Precincts D. Prosser (i) J. Kloppenburg
Total 3596/3630 733,074
50% 732,489
50%

[Tx4obama]

130. The AP has not yet updated the Dunn County numbers, they went to bed apparently

Update - Dunn County

Kloppenburg gains another 229 votes from final Dunn county numbers: http://bit.ly/e7JovI Lead down to 356 votes. 32 precincts left.

[Zorra]

131. Thanks. Awesome. DU is now a faster, more reliable news source than AP.

Well, I guess that's not really saying all that much.

[blogslut]

132. Votes are coming in this morning

As of 7:50 AM CST:

Prosser 736,878/Kloppenburg 736,043

3606 of 3630 precincts reporting

[FBaggins]

133. Yep. Dane and Milwaukee are almost done.

Three precincts between them that could hold another 300-400 net votes for us (assuming they're similar to the average precinct in the county - a BIG "if")..

1/3 of the remaining precincts are in Sauk. That's another 350-400 or so (same caveat).

Not much else that isn't split pretty evenly.

Looks like we start the recount down about 200.


On edit - Update - My mistake. The two remaining Milwaukee precincts are in West Aillis. That's about a 350 vote net swing.

[mod mom]

134. and don't forget there are provisional ballots that favor Dems.

[FBaggins]

136. Could be a long bloody battle.

Lots still to come.

[cascadiance]

135. How come Prosser picked up 200 votes from Milwaukee but K's percentage INCREASED from 56% to 57%??

That doesn't seem to add up.

[in_cog_ni_to]

137. Just logged on.....she's down by 835? Have absentee ballots been counted yet? Are

all precincts counted?

[highplainsdem]

138. She's down by only 419 votes now, and almost all the uncounted precincts are in counties she won.