Gold: $1,500oz, Silver: $43oz, U.S. credit just downgraded by S&P. Let's talk about the future.

[Poll_Blind]

So I live my beautiful little lower-middle-class life and I haven't been paying much attention to the price of silver or gold or reading reports like this one just now at DU, indicating that Standard & Poor's has downgraded our credit outlook as a nation.

Smiles are free, laughing kids are (mostly) free, ladies still kiss me for free. And for all of those free things, and many more, I am eternally grateful. The trees and the sky. Those are really nice, and the sunrises, too.

But gasoline is getting more expensive, energy more expensive, I find my government keeps returning to an awfully abusive relationship with the Bad Boys at the Big Banks and start wondering if the volume on our problems as a country is ever going to be turned down.

Or will every decade bring wistful nostalgia for the previous one, although at the time we couldn't think things could possibly get worse?

It's always a good time to stop and think "Where am I in life? How does my future look? Will I be happy 10 years from now, and how much choice do I have in what direction my life moves?" All really good questions. I don't ask myself those questions nearly enough. But I'm asking them quite a bit now, with all that financial stuff, that Japanese nuclear powerplant doing what it does best (whether we like it or not) and a whole host of other unexpected things waiting to pounce on us and which we collectively call the future.

But sometimes, you know, we kind of drop down to a point and let things go and the questions change from "Where am I in life?" to "How can I get out of this position?" and "Will my future ever look brighter? Will I be happy again 10 years from now, and how much choice do I have in what direction my life moves?"

I think we're at that second point. I don't think we're just on a rocky ride. I don't think the boat is just taking on water and needs a bunch of bailing, quickly, or we'll go down. No, I kind of feel like our whole concept of reality is much, much nearer to what the stock market types euphemistically might call a "correction". But when precious metals are this high, when there isn't another bubble left to sink "the dream" into, that indicates to me that there isn't a whole lot left before all those other structures we take for granted just sorta crumble over a fairly short period of time.

I have children. I have a family. I've lived long enough to experience more incredible things than frankly I deserved to. But we have 3 little boys and I wonder what their world (currently filled with little handheld electronic gadgets and more than enough food to eat) is going to be like in 5 years, 10 years, 15 years...

When we've been watching the present slowly degrade to the point it has, how is it possible to gin up optimism that the whole thing will reverse itself or, at least, that the entire stability of the world will remain such that we can continue to enjoy the trappings of our lower-middle-class lives? And won't those who already took advantage of us (Big finance, Military-Industrial complex, corrupt Government officials) just use the weakness to finish us off and make some twisted new world- a world that makes my lower-middle-class life look like a maharaja's?

PB

[blindpig]

1. A rough ride in any case for the short term.

The long term? Very bleak unless we abolish capitalism.

[Poll_Blind]

4. I would argue our "brand" of capitalism is a twisted caricature, anyway. But what do..

...you propose as a viable alternative? Communism? Socialism? Something else? I could buy into Socialism if it was the alternative to this caricature of Capitalism, this unregulated, predatory monstrosity which is (as we speak) is gutting all the wealth of this country, directly or indirectly.

PB

[leftstreet]

8. I've never understood this question

"but what do you propose as a viable alternative?"

If I'm pounding your leg with a hammer and you cry out in pain for me to STOP, no one would ask you "Well what do you propose as a viable alternative to inflicting pain on your leg?"

I just don't get it

[Poll_Blind]

9. OK, then "Stop!" From that moment on, what rules apply to how I secure...

...goods and services for my family? How I apply for redress in situations where I feel I have been criminally-wronged? Chuck Capitalism, even something as stinky as our American Capitalism, and it has to be replaced with some other system.

I assume you're not suggesting pure anarchy as an alternative, which might possibly be the only alternative I find worse than our current situaiton...so, what sorts of systems to you have in mind to take the place of our current systems?

At least where I live, and it's arguably "rural", one still can't easily gather firewood, hunt game in the nearby wilderness and so-on to survive. If it were an option I probably wouldn't press, but it's not.

PB

[leftstreet]

10. What did my pounding your leg with a hammer have to do with it?

How were my actions helping you secure "goods and services for my family?"

[tkmorris]

12. Well in that case, the alternative is not doing that

That option doesn't really work when it comes to Capitalism though. What is Capitalism really? I'd say it's an overriding philosophy pertaining to the trading of goods and services. Unless you are implying that we should simply STOP trading goods and services altogether (in which case I really don't think we have any common basis to warrant further discussion) we need to have some cohesive policy regarding how we go about doing so. What should we do?

It's all bellybutton gazing to me in any case. There are no pure forms of any economic policy being practiced anywhere. Every nation and smaller sub-group utilizes a blend of ideas involving Capitalism, Communism, Socialism, and so on. There is Communism in the US and Capitalism in Cuba. The differences are merely in which direction the overall approach leans. I'd say, with some emphasis, that Capitalism in this country is far too prevalent. A dog eat dog environment, where anything goes in the name of profit, is rarely acceptable to me but isn't too harmful when it's restricted to purely fluff industries. When it comes to societal needs however the Profit as Motive approach can do, and does, great harm.

[JVS]

19. Capitalism is the hegemony of the class of owners over the class of workers.

The option of stopping it is as slmple as workers deciding to disobey owners, seize their property, and kill them.

[demwing]

35. Yes, Socialism

It is, or can be, exactly what you asked for "the alternative to this caricature of Capitalism, this unregulated, predatory monstrosity which is (as we speak) is gutting all the wealth of this country, directly or indirectly"

Do you see it differently?

[damntexdem]

2. What future?

;-)

[ret5hd]

3. wait wait wait...back on up there buster...

ladies kiss you for free?

[Poll_Blind]

7. For the most part, on the cheek, yes. Everything else, as they say, is...

...a la carte!

:rofl:

PB

[Newest Reality]

5. Being on the other end of the scale here,

I respectfully suggest that you start to consider thinking outside current comfort-zone lines. Look into the food and energy issues that will increasingly play a part in changing the way we live, especially if the Status Quo continues to win more ground in controlling, pricing and expropriating them for its own benefit.

While you may not agree with James Kuntsler, I think his book, World Made by Hand, will give you a good idea where it is we may be heading, in the worst-case scenario. Then, with that in mind, be prepared for a somewhat overwhelming deluge of thoughts about what to do, considering how little prepared we are now for what's coming.

On the plus side, if we can overcome our internalized divisions and find a way to create community for the sake of survival, (as a priority) then we can begin the task of re-localizing as we struggle with the paradigm of the PTB who will probably hinder and exploit our efforts to make this transition, (squeezing as much out of us as they can) in a way that will bring hardship, but also, some long-term benefits that will be difficult to see at first.

Oh Brave New World, its wonders to behold.

[Poll_Blind]

13. Ok, I'm definitely going to be checking that out. Without regard to spoilers, what....

...do you feel are the most important aspects of the book. I mean, in regards to our conversation here. I looked it up and it was listed as speculative fiction so I'm open to what themes you think are important when considering the book in this light. Needn't be a long list of things, just stuff you thought was important and/or possibly prophetic.

PB

[Newest Reality]

16. I am glad you are considering it.

Well, the book takes you into a future here that represents something like the early days of settlements and such.

I would consider it a good exploration of a far more simple life with far less amenities than we are used to today. What stands out is that the life of average Americans for the last 50-100 years has been a blip. If you have ever talked to anyone who has lived in simpler times and/or The Great Depression than some of Kuntsler's depictions will resonate with you. However, keep in mind that the people back then were more used to less and had different needs and capacities to cope and struggle. We are living on energy slaves and very much domesticated and fashioned by corporate mono-culture.

Again, consider it the extreme case, but one that many of us are close to or will find ourselves in one degree or another. What is salient is that the skills we will need have been either lost, redefined, or diluted to the point that we cannot, as we once did, survive, Johnny-on-the-spot easily without what we are now used to from the Industrial and High-tech eras. The book shows what life is like without happy motoring, electricity and access to medical care. It is rather Third-world.

I would hope that it will get you thinking from where we are to where it can go. My personal feelings from reading-up on these subjects are that the infinite supply/infinite garbage dump paradigm has no sustainable future, especially if life is to continue here. Then, consider yourself on a track in that direction with potential forks and pitfalls. I must say that being prepared emotionally and mentally for a lot of change turns out to be a boon after you get past the stages. Even small steps or different ways with different values can be of great value, as you will see when you read it.

What I got from the book is a view of a harder, yet more simple life where community, (or "tribes") becomes an essential aspect of survival. One also realizes just how much for granted we have taken our current version of reality and how fragile that really is and may become as we proceed, head-first into a convergence that looks like a perfect storm.

To sum it up: We are far more adaptable than we currently realize, yet, change can still be uncomfortable.

[DontTreadOnMe]

6. The World Bank President fears 3rd World Food Inflation

A speech was just recently given at the United Nations referring to the cost of food in third world countries, and the rising inflation will cause food prices to cause famine in a scale the world has never seen.

And we are worried about the price of gold and gasoline... global change is coming real fast, and I am not sure we are going to like it.

[mmonk]

11. We're definitely at the second point.

I'm getting tired as well. My fight has been drained with each and every compromise with right wing radicalism that brought us here as well as the right wing radicals themselves. I'm tired of a media that spins the truth or is silent about it. I don't see the light others see at the end of the tunnel.

[Recursion]

14. I'm going to laugh my ass off when the gold bubble crashes

And all the financiers who duped nervous people into buying it are living it up in the Caymans...

[quaker bill]

20. indeed

I have a couple of silver bars I inherited from my dad. I will be selling soon.

[Poboy]

28. Golden Tipping Point: University of Texas Takes Delivery Of $1 Billion In Physical Gold

Texas University Takes Cue From Kyle Bass to Hold $1 Billion in Gold Bars
By David Mildenberg and Pham-Duy Nguyen - Apr 16, 2011 4:45 AM CT

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-16/texas-university-takes-cue-from-kyle-bass-to-hold-1-billion-in-gold-bars.html

[Recursion]

15. Also, I'd take today over the early 90s

I remember the crime rate back then.

[jeff47]

17. Well, take a minute and think about where we actually are.

When I was growing up, I knew that I was 30 minutes away from being vaporized by a Soviet ICBM. And our President was taunting them. Today? Not a threat.

When my parents were growing up, black men were routinely hanged for entertainment.

When their parents were growing up, a crazy guy in Europe was trying to conquer the world.

When their parents were growing up, troops were being lined up before machine guns and slaughtered in numbers we've never seen before or since (for the pedantic, based on percent of the population, not raw numbers).

When their parents were growing up, ... well, off the top of my head I really don't know much about what was going on in that generation.

When their parents were growing up, we were fighting the civil war.

Despite all the strum and drang, things aren't really that bad. Sure, there's lots of stuff that needs to be fixed, and a lot of things that are not ideal. But it will get better.

Why? Liberalism always wins in the end. There can be setbacks, even decades-long setbacks. But while they can win some battles, conservatives always lose the war. And if you look at polling, the conservative victories in the last 3 decades have set themselves up for massive losses in the next 3. The kids are alright, and the conservative base is dying off.

[onethatcares]

18. I sincerey hope you are correct.

I have the same concept that the good of us all will win out in the end. It might be bleak as the darkest night at times, but in the end light always wins.

Peace.

[TheKentuckian]

23. Yeah, but the population is about 7 billion now and the low hanging resource fruit is gone.

We have also damaged our environment mightily.

Your. Picture doesn't account for the depletion and damage, just the politics and evolving population shifts.

Civil rights challenges require nothing but a little will to make them right but only millions of years will restock the oil and heavy elements supply.

[jeff47]

27. And we've also fixed our environment mightily

The smog of the 70's is greatly reduced, for example.

And yes, the resources we currently use are being depleted. But we don't have to keep using the same stuff. Depletion of the sperm whale population was a great concern back when we used whale oil. Then we started using this black goo from underground instead.

What's the new resource? No idea. If I did know, I'd be exploiting it and setting myself up as the next Rockefeller.

[TheKentuckian]

31. Physics trumps politics, not the reverse. The smog reduction is a local fix

created by relocating it, see China.

I know you don't believe that our water and air are in better shape than the 70's on the whole.

The state of the oceans is retched. Ground water everywhere is compromised. The world is warming. Deforestation marches on.

There is nothing wrong with a positive outlook but scoffing at reality and counting on magic is not going to get it.

Are you implying that there are a slew of new elements? We cannot continue on this path. We can't even move to existing fixes because of corporate capture.

[jeff47]

33. No, the smog is a fix based on how we burn fuel

China doesn't bother with catalytic converters, so they have more smog. (In addition to a lot of other pollution controls they don't bother with).

As for our water and air in better shape than the 70's, it's really clear that they are. I grew up in LA. The air was bad as a kid. The air is not nearly so bad now. Acid rain is nowhere near as bad as it used to be. As for water, rivers are not on fire anymore.

I am in no way saying things are perfect and there are no problems. I'm saying it's gotten better in my lifetime, which is a completely accurate statement. Of course there's more to fix, but we should not drop into despair.

"Are you implying that there are a slew of new elements?"
No, I'm implying that we'll come up with some other way of making stuff. That's what we've always done when the old resource started becoming scarce.

[demwing]

36. Your optimism is encouraging, but "Liberalism always wins in the end" is not provable

in fact, change is more reliable than stasis. Nothing exists in a vacuum, and outside forces are always influencing outcomes.

[unblock]

21. s&p did **NOT** downgrade u.s. long-term debt. in fact it AFFIRMED its aaa/a-1+ rating.

it merely revised its OUTLOOK from stable to negative.

while such a move often precedes an actual downgrade, it is a very different thing from an actual downgrade.


http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/articles/en/us/?assetID=1245302886884

[Recursion]

22. Note also that the nervousness may be coming from austerity suggestions

rather than the mythical bond vigilanteism.

[Baclava]

24. I have a confession - Fuck it - - I cashed in my gold bracelet.

1 oz of 18k gold gave me over $1000 in hard cash. I bought it when it was like $370 an oz.

so I then bought a new camera and laptop - - to upgrade for the future.

Is that so wrong?

[Poll_Blind]

26. LOL, if I had that I'd do it myself!

I think the last thing I meant was for somebody to interpret my post as anti...hrm...uh...as an an anti-sell-gold-jewelry-for-money-ite rant!

You're all good. Hope you got a good laptop. If you bought a cheap one watch you don't fuck up the screen.

PB

[Baclava]

30. No problemo - - I can outshop anybody, on the web...gold, jewels, video games...it's all there

My friends come to me to ask - - how how get that so cheap? I say I shop around. It pays to keep up.

I say - subscribe to my new website and I will find you the best of the best of the best deal....yes - I take PayPal.


You think I could make a million?

[Renew Deal]

25. Did anyone notice that DU runs Goldline ads?

I've seen them several times.

[Poboy]

29. Belarus c.bank halts sales of gold for roubles

Belarus c.bank halts sales of gold for roubles
Fri Apr 15, 2011 11:57am

MINSK, April 15 (Reuters) - Belarus' central bank has stopped selling gold to local retail customers for Belarussian roubles BYR=, it said on Friday, after demand for precious metals soared due to expectations of a currency devaluation.

The bank did not explain its decision.

Belarus is in talks with Russia on a $3 billion bailout package that Minsk hopes will help it avoid a painful devaluation of the rouble and offset the large current account deficit.
Belarussians bought 470 kilograms of gold from the central bank last month, up from 209 kilograms in January and February together, as they sought to protect their savings.

Analysts say that Belarus will have to eventually devalue the rouble by about 20-30 percent even if it receives aid from Moscow. However, the central bank has said it would not make any such moves until late April. The rouble traded at 3,052 per dollar on Friday BYR= and has weakened by 7.57 percent so far this year against a basket that includes the dollar, the euro and the Russian rouble.

The central bank has said it would keep the exchange rate movements against the currency basket within 8 percent this year. (Reporting by Andrei Makhovsky; Writing by Olzhas Auyezov; editing by Patrick Graham)


source:
http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFLDE73E16O20110415

[Poll_Blind]

32. Interesting article. If it hasn't happened already, the financial gallows is going to be...

...calling for most countries and, among other things, their credit will be devalued and that will obviously cause big problems. How big those big problems are depends on the country. I look at a place like Belarus, read a 20-30 percent devaluation and wonder to myself "If and when there is an epic currency correction on the dollar, would it be greater or less than that percentage?"

PB

[Poboy]

34. You are correct in my opinion. We are going to see this same percentage.