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Beastly Boy

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Member since: Fri Mar 18, 2016, 11:21 AM
Number of posts: 5,050

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Russia's "spheres of influence" openly discussing Russia's expected loss of its spheres of influence

Ukrainska Pravda
Wed, November 23, 2022, 5:29 PM

https://www.yahoo.com/news/lukashenko-possible-dissolution-collective-security-222917201.html

Lukashenko on possible dissolution of Collective Security Treaty Organization

Aleksandr Lukashenko, the self-proclaimed president of the Republic of Belarus, has said that the idea that the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) might dissolve if Russia loses the war in Ukraine is growing increasingly popular.

Source: Belta, a Belarusian news outlet, quoting from Lukashenko at the CSTO summit

Quote from Lukashenko: "You know, [the idea that] the existence and the fate of the CSTO are dependent on the success of the Russian Federation’s operation in Ukraine [meaning Russia’s war against Ukraine - ed.] has lately become popularised by the media. If Russia wins, the CSTO will keep going, but if, god forbid, it doesn’t win, the CSTO will dissolve. Many hotheads in our countries are also discussing this issue.

I think that we’ve reached a shared conclusion that if, god forbid, Russia collapses, then we will be rightfully buried under the rubble."


Lukashenko is Putin's staunchest ally and collaborator. CSTO is the last vestige of the Soviet Union and the Russian empire before it. Prior to Russia's war with Ukraine, such talk would have been unheard of. Russia's justification for the war was to retain and expand its spheres of influence and prevent further expansion of NATO. Instead, Putin is accelerating the inevitable further disintegration of the Russian Empire whose manifest greatness he is so fond of promoting. He is proving that all the talk among Russian nationalists and certain Western pundits of NATO's expansion unfairly undermining Russia's security and disrupting the balance of power between Russia and the West, is pure baloney. The Russian Empire has been slowly collapsing from within since at least 1914, irrespective of all the regime changes it underwent or NATO's role, simply because it has been too large and incompetently governed for over a century. The process cannot be stopped, it can only be accelerated.

Confirmed by Ukraine's Opeerational Command: there is an ongoing military operation on Kinburn Spit.

Kinburn Spit is the western-most Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russia. It is a small peninsula that is strategically located at the junction of shipping traffic between Dnipro and Pivdenny Buh rivers and the Black Sea.

Last week, there were persistent rumors among war bloggers about the presence of Ukrainian troops on the peninsula. Then, the rumors abruptly stopped.

We now have confirmation that there is indeed a military operation happening on the peninsula, in "silent mode":
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/21/7377334/

This is far more significant than it looks. According to the unnamed South Operational Command representative, control over the spit will secure the grain corridor from the Port of Mykolaiv to the Black Sea, but there seems to be a lot more to it. I couldn't help but recall the reported projection from Ukraine's Defense Ministry of liberating Crimea by December (https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/ukraine-crimea-christmas-war-russia-end/). This was proposed at the same time the military action on Kinburn was taking place. The news of action on Kinburn lends some credence to this otherwise exceedingly rosy scenario: it potentially opens a new front that not only protects shipping in the Black Sea, but can outflank the defenses that the Russians are currently building on the east side of Dnipro after losing Kherson. More importantly, this front has the potential of threatening one of only two remaining land links between Crimea and and Russia at Armiansk, choking off delivery of supplies and troops to Crimea, just like UAF did in Kherson, but on a larger scale.

While the official goal of the Kinburn operation is to "secure the grain corridor from the Port of Mykolaiv", it appears to be, at least potentially, a lot more than that. Stay tuned.

The "Garland must go" crowd must be extatic today

Garland granted their wish!

So I can expect a pause in Garland bashing now, can't I? Surely Garland is going to be praised for keeping DOJ beyond reproach over any accusations of partisanship, or for assuring that the two specific investigation into Trump's crimes he delegated to the special council will go on despite any conceivable changes to Congress or DOJ or the fate of any other ongoing investigations into Trump, or that it will remain funded for the foreseeable future, or for appointing a consummate professional to take over the investigation, and not be bashed for his determination to uphold the law despite a multitude of questionable expectations to the contrary from overly enthusiastic spectators, right?

I am not being too pollyannaish here, am I?

Russian administrators leave second city of Ukraine's Kherson region

Source: Reuters

Nov 15 (Reuters) - Civil servants working for the Russian-installed administration in Nova Kakhovka, the second-largest city in Ukraine's southern Kherson region, have left along with thousands of residents due to fighting, officials said on Tuesday.

The city lies on the east bank of the Dnipro river, next to the huge Kakhovka dam, which both Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of shelling. It also adjoins the town of Tavriisk at the mouth of the North Crimean Canal, a crucial source of fresh water to the arid Crimean peninsula, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014.

--snip--

Russia has already asked civilians to leave areas of Kherson province within 15 km (nine miles) of the Dnipro's eastern bank, and says its forces have taken up defensive positions on that side of the river.

Images published on social media on Tuesday appeared to show Russian troops had left the town of Oleshky, directly across the Dnipro from the city of Kherson, suggesting that one of the war's biggest retreats may not have ended at the water's edge.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-installed-civil-servants-leave-nova-kakhovka-ukraines-kherson-region-2022-11-15/



Looks like Russia is not stopping its retreat at the left bank of the Dnipro River, and plans to continue their pull-back further east and south. Both Oleshki and Nova Kakhovka are extremely valuable strategic locations, each situated on the Russian side of the river aalong the only two bridges across it. Russia's apparent intention to abandon both looks like a desperate move on their part. I can't think of anything that would prompt this move, so I suspect there is something going on behind the scenes, and we may hear more good news from Ukraine's Southern front.

Mike Martin: The Ukrainians have taken Kherson. What now? A map-based explainer

A medium size thread that explores one of several (as far as I can see) strategic options Ukraine has to further exploit their recent major victory in Kherson.

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1591899536397684736

Serious rhetorical question:

How would DOJ indictments prior to midterm elections have helped Democrats in the midterm elections?

Bonus rhetorical question: Would DOJ indictments prior to midterms have harmed Democrats in the elections?

Ukraine in 'final stage' of reclaiming west river bank in Kherson region

Source: Reuters

KYIV, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Ukrainian armed forces are in the final stage of reclaiming the west bank of the Dnipro River in the southern Kherson region from Russian troops, a regional lawmaker said Friday.

Serhiy Khlan, a deputy for Kherson Regional Council, told a news briefing that some Russian soldiers had been unable to leave the city of Kherson after months of occupation, and had changed into civilian clothing.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-final-stage-reclaiming-right-river-bank-kherson-region-2022-11-11/



Here's what it looks like on a live Ukraine war map:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1lscRK6ehG0l2V-XvJ16nsyblMsQ&ll=46.77478696397298%2C32.97916412536392&z=8

On edit: Ukraine's troops have been photohraphed planting Ukrainian flag on the Kherson City's General Directorate of the National Police:
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1591042494103683073

When you vote today, make sure you leave no item unchecked.

Senator, House member, state legislator, judge, dog catcher, vote for everyone running! And don't forget to vote on the propositions.

This time, more than ever, it matters.

Russia's Counterpart To NATO Is On The Brink Of Collapse

The Collective Security Treaty Organization, better known by its initials, CSTO—or by Moscow’s aspiration that it should be an equal counterpart to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—is now on the brink of collapse, yet another case of the collateral damage Russia has suffered in the post-Soviet space from President Vladimir Putin’s disastrous war against Ukraine. When the CSTO was created in 1992, Russia and five other post-Soviet states were members; a year later, it had grown to nine. But in the intervening years, it contracted to six. Now it is becoming more clear that, by next year, the CSTO, which Moscow had placed so much hope in, will most likely be reduced to only three: Russia, Belarus and Tajikistan. Moreover, after Tajikistani President Emomali Rahmon’s attack on Putin at the Tashkent summit of regional leaders earlier this month, it is entirely possible that this much-ballyhooed military alliance will be left with only two members (Centralasia.media, October 14). Indeed, the signs of the collapse of this Russian project are now so obvious that one Moscow security analyst, Georgy Filin, argues that “the CSTO is repeating the fate of the Warsaw Pact” (Versia.ru, October 17).

--snip--

It is thus difficult not to accept the conclusions offered by two independent Russian analysts, Anatoly Nesmiyan, who blogs under the screen name “El Murid,” and Filin, who was cited earlier. Nesmiyan says that the situation Moscow finds itself in now with the CSTO in Central Asia and the South Caucasus “very much recalls [a similar situation] before the demise of the USSR,” with Russia pulling out and others moving in, however unwelcome that may be for the Kremlin (Bbc.com/Russian, October 10). And Filin, even more pessimistically, suggests that, today, as the CSTO situation demonstrates, “Russia does not have too many friends, even fewer partners and almost no remaining allies” (Versia.ru, October 17).


More:

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-counterpart-nato-brink-collapse-190000340.html

Confirmed by Russian Defense Ministry: attack on military base inside Russia

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1581365045719465985

11 dead, 15 wounded. Two attackers identified as being from a CIS country (Commonwealth of Independent States consisting of nine former Soviet Republics) also dead.

No further details available
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