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Loki Liesmith

Profile Information

Member since: Thu May 26, 2016, 09:07 AM
Number of posts: 3,122

About Me

God of lies. Like math.

Journal Archives

So who outed Northam: positional analysis

Facts:

Getting rid of Northam removes a powerful incumbent Democrat.

VA lt. Governor is still a strong replacement. Unclear if race is a factor in VA politics these days. Potentially racist vote can still be exploited though.

Corey Stewart (an alt right adjacent figure) did not have this info to release.

Was released after a damaging series of abortion politics clips. Seems strategically timed. Info may have been in hand for a while.

Analysis:

Seems likely this was released by a center right Republican who wanted far right Corey Stewart to lose but wanted to increase the chances of a centrist Republican recapturing the seat in the future. At worst this move represents status quo for the center right in VA. At best they may now have ad edge. It was an excellent strategic move.

However the best Democratic countermove is still (imo) to broom Northam. Itís a defensive move with significant downside risk but the alternative is almost all downside.

To the strategist who executed this: well played.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sat Feb 2, 2019, 10:38 AM (10 replies)

I-1631 (Carbon fee initiative) not doing well in WA

That's kind of depressing. I had pinned some small measure of hope on that.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Wed Nov 7, 2018, 01:07 AM (1 replies)

The polls haven't moved for many, many weeks

Far too many people here look at individual polls. Look at the average:



It swings up and down but the trend has been a strong Dem lead for a long time.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Wed May 9, 2018, 05:10 PM (3 replies)

Why do so few users here not understand that single polls don't mean much?

Itís the poll average that matters. Donít people get that yet?
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sat May 5, 2018, 10:33 PM (8 replies)

Heads up for a potentially interesting event

Pay attention to @VickerySec on twitter over the next few hours.

It might be nothing. But there are ďrumors on the internet.Ē
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Mar 26, 2018, 11:48 AM (23 replies)

Trump Campaign Laundered 130K thru Trump Org and then to Cohen

https://twitter.com/theviewfromll2/status/972169650535653376?s=21
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Fri Mar 9, 2018, 02:46 PM (47 replies)

Trump has been invited to meet Kim Jong Un

He will accept.


This is a terrible idea and a trap.

https://twitter.com/jengriffinfnc/status/971887659315613696?s=21
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Thu Mar 8, 2018, 07:40 PM (33 replies)

OK SD27 is looking at a 40 pt Dem swing

We wonít win but itís gone from +73R on e-day to around +33R tonight with 48% precincts reporting.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Feb 13, 2018, 09:52 PM (4 replies)

Its pretty easy to prevent a military parade from moving

5000 people would have a much easier time than Tankman

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Feb 6, 2018, 09:46 PM (11 replies)

Crazy theory: Gowdy told Schiff

That Nunes altered his memo.

God I hope this is true.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Thu Feb 1, 2018, 12:04 AM (14 replies)
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