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Member since: Fri Jun 7, 2019, 02:43 PM
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538: Voters who prioritize beating Trump thought Warren did best

Voters who prioritize beating Trump thought Warren did best

How debate-watchers scored candidates’ performances (on a four-point scale where higher is better) in the January Democratic debate, by which type of candidate they prefer


Warren 3.0 3.4
Biden 2.6 3.1
Buttigieg 2.7 3.1
Sanders 3.1 3.1
Klobuchar 2.6 3.0
Steyer 2.7 3.0



538 Debate Poll: Warren had the BEST performance

Warren had the best debate performance


Warren got high marks

First up, who viewers thought had the best debate performance. To answer this, we compared candidates’ pre-debate favorability ratings1 to how well respondents who watched the debate thought the candidates performed. Candidates are graded on a four-point scale where higher numbers are better; comparing those grades to favorability ratings helps us adjust our expectations, since people may be inclined to view well-liked candidates in a positive light. Warren got the highest marks for her performance on Tuesday night, and they were strong enough to be impressive even after you account for her high favorability. That represents an improvement for her, after she fell slightly below expectations during the December debate. Sanders, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Vice President Biden didn’t do poorly per se, but because they were already well-liked, we expected a lot of voters to view their debate performance favorably.


Warren was very impressive last night and 538's poll shows that!


Warren is back!

Facebook Says It Won't Back Down From Allowing Lies in Political Ads


Defying pressure from Congress, Facebook said on Thursday that it would continue to allow political campaigns to use the site to target advertisements to particular slices of the electorate and that it would not police the truthfulness of the messages sent out.

The stance put Facebook, the most important digital platform for political ads, at odds with some of the other large tech companies, which have begun to put new limits on political ads.

Facebook’s decision, telegraphed in recent months by executives, is likely to harden criticism of the company heading into this year’s presidential election.


The generational gap among black Democrats is very revealing




Sanders + Warren have 48% of Black Democrats age 18 to 34 to Biden's 30%

Sanders + Warren have 31% of Black Democrats age 35 to 49 to Biden's 41%

That leaves open the possibility the age 50-64 bracket might be persuadable away from Biden by younger family members.

Time will tell if early voting results from Iowa and New Hampshire have an effect on this dynamic.

2020 ad spending



Steyer might just be showing that money can by you love... from primary voters.

Podium order for the CNN/DMR debate Tuesday in Iowa



I am looking forward to this, the smallest Democratic primary debate to date.

Miss Black America Ryann Richardson endorses Pete Buttigieg for POTUS.


This is a significant endorsement for Mayor Pete.

Her opinion piece is well worth reading.

Cory Booker calls out the Misogyny!


Great job, Cory.


But, yeah, women candidates are held to a different standard than their male counterparts.

Same old same old.

Winning both Iowa and New Hampshire would catapult Mayor Pete

To front runner status.

Despite declining national polls, the publicity Mayor Pete would get by winning both Iowa and New Hampshire would be a tremendous boost for his campaign going forward.

Exceeding expectations in the early voting states more often than not proves decisive in later primaries, with the few exceptions proving the rule.

Some Mayor Pete detractors counter this argument by pointing out that he would probably lose decisively in South Carolina. But those detractors fail to acknowledge that the South Carolina Democratic primary is atypical, with 66% of the voters expected to be African Americans, a considerably higher proportion than in any other state primary.

Mayor Pete is surging, and yes, I mean surging, right now in Iowa and New Hampshire. He has had superb fundraising to fuel a well orchestrated ground game in both states. It is not inconceivable that he could win both states by at least 5%.

Mayor Pete's role as the first openly gay Presidential candidate makes him a truly transformational figure in American politics. Transformational candidates break down societal barriers and Mayor Pete deserves full credit for being one. The energy this all brings to his campaign is perhaps being underestimated by the national polling that often is overly impacted by name recognition among inattentive voters.

Well, if Mayor Pete achieves big wins in both Iowa and New Hampshire, his name recognition will certainly change.

Time will tell.

Klobuchar Readies For A Show Of Force Before Caucus

Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s Iowa campaign team is ready to prove it will be a force to be reckoned with caucus night.

Her team has put together a 99-county day of action currently scheduled for Saturday, which one team member says will be used as a bit of a practice run for the caucuses.

The campaign will host organizing events in all of Iowa’s counties and will include appearances by surrogates such as Klobuchar’s husband, John Bessler, former U.S. Attorney Roxanne Conlin, various Iowa state senators, representatives and a whole gaggle of Minnesotans.

“By doing this thing this weekend, we are showcasing that we are organized and we are ready to go in all 99 counties, and that’s going to be one big piece to our success,” said Norm Sterzenbach, the campaign’s caucus advisor. “The caucuses are a delegate game and there are delegates in every precinct. To do well on caucus night, you need to do well across the state, not just in certain pockets.”

The campaign has certainly been working hard trying to reach every corner of the state. They’ve seen a 132.5% increase in precinct captain recruitment since the last debate and 101% increase in commit to caucus cards.

Klobuchar’s campaign also recently announced it has 100 paid staff members on the ground in Iowa, which has her team keeping pace with most of the front-runners in the race.

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