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democrattotheend

Profile Information

Member since: Wed Jan 30, 2008, 02:33 PM
Number of posts: 11,513

About Me

I'm a lawyer representing workers and consumers and a longtime Democratic activist. Nothing I say on here, including any comments about legal topics, should be construed as legal advice or creating an attorney-client relationship.

Journal Archives

Wacky suggestion: Biden should offer to split the cost of the WI recount

I recall reading that the recount would cost the Trump campaign about $3 million, so half of that is probably trivial for the Biden campaign in light of how much they raised. And I think it would be a good PR stunt to demonstrate his commitment to making sure every vote is counted fairly. Offering to chip in for a recount that won't benefit him and could conceivably hurt him (but won't) would make Biden look magnanimous and truly committed to a fair process, and would go a long way to undercut the baseless but sadly somewhat effective (in terms of public perception) lies that are being told about him trying to steal the election. Of course, those lies won't affect the outcome of the election, but they will potentially impact the approval rating he starts out with and the amount of good will he gets from the American people in the beginning.

What do you think?
Posted by democrattotheend | Fri Nov 6, 2020, 05:30 PM (37 replies)

I called it: Monroe County, PA back in the blue

This was looking like the one Clinton 2016-->Trump 2020 county in PA, but as I predicted, it's now back in our column.

There's still one Obama 2012-->Trump 2016 county, Luzerne, that we probably won't flip back. Trump is leading by double digits with 95% counted. But I expect it to narrow a bit when they finish counting mail ballots, if they haven't already. Biden is leading in every other Obama 2012-->Trump 2016 county in PA.
Posted by democrattotheend | Thu Nov 5, 2020, 09:58 PM (0 replies)

NBC News about to interview Al Gore

This should be interesting. Very curious to hear his thoughts on this election, given what he went through 20 years ago.
Posted by democrattotheend | Thu Nov 5, 2020, 09:20 PM (0 replies)

CNN Chevron: "Biden on the Brink of Win; Waiting for PA"

Do you think that means they're planning to call PA tonight?
Posted by democrattotheend | Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:53 PM (8 replies)

Woo hoo! Erie County, PA just flipped back to blue

Hillary lost this county by 1.5 points in 2016, a dramatic shift from 2012, when Obama won it by 17 points. On election night, it was looking like Biden was doing even worse than Hillary there, but as of a few minutes ago, CNN now has it very light blue, with Biden leading 49.8-48.8. 94% counted, so he won't come close to Obama's margin in 2012, but I'm happy to see that county and Northampton back in our column.

Now it looks like the only county Hillary won that Biden is losing is Monroe, and I'm guessing Biden will flip that too once all the votes are counted. Bigger question is whether he can win back Luzerne, which I believe is the only other Obama 2012-->Trump 2016 county in the state. Right now Biden is down 56.8-42.2 with 95% counted, so it's a major longshot, but he's already doing better than Hillary did there.
Posted by democrattotheend | Thu Nov 5, 2020, 06:58 PM (4 replies)

Allegheny County, PA: Either good news or a potential warning sign

In most counties in PA, Biden is outperforming Hillary's margin from 2016 once the mail ballots are counted, while underperforming Hillary's margins in most of the counties where no mail ballots or only some mail ballots have been counted.

As of sometime yesterday, Biden has been not only outperforming Hillary in Allegheny County (home to Pittsburgh), he's been outperforming Obama in that county, both times. Right now, he has a higher margin in Allegheny than Obama got when he won the state by 10 points in 2008. Biden is winning it by 19 points, compared to a 16 point margin for Hillary in 2016, 14 points for Obama in 2012, and 15.5 points for Obama in 2008.

This seems like great news, but I recall seeing this morning that Allegheny also has some in-person votes left to count. Can anyone confirm that, or say how many in-person votes we are talking about? As of this morning, Trump was winning the in-person vote in every county except Philadelphia, even counties like Allegheny and Montgomery where Biden was killing it overall.

If all of the in-person votes in Allegheny are counted, then the fact that Biden is outperforming Hillary and Obama is fantastic. But I am a little skeptical that he is doing better there than Obama did in 2008, when he won the state by double digits.

Posted by democrattotheend | Thu Nov 5, 2020, 06:06 PM (5 replies)

BREAKING: CNN just called Wisconsin for Biden

I was looking at their map and Wisconsin turned blue!

One down, two or three more to go.
Posted by democrattotheend | Wed Nov 4, 2020, 02:01 PM (8 replies)

Really, CNN? Vermont is too early to call?

I guess they just aren't calling anything at poll closing because of the difficulties of exit polling during a pandemic.
Posted by democrattotheend | Tue Nov 3, 2020, 07:02 PM (12 replies)

Don't freak out if Virginia is too early to call at 7 pm

It hasn't been a blue state that long, so I expect the networks may be cautious and not call it right away. Don't freak out unless it's too CLOSE to call.
Posted by democrattotheend | Tue Nov 3, 2020, 06:58 PM (3 replies)

Yikes, did Biden look at his watch?

I didn't notice that. If so that's bad. It's all the pundits will talk about, channeling 1992. Ugh.
Posted by democrattotheend | Thu Oct 22, 2020, 09:48 PM (76 replies)
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