2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Functionally, Clinton will clinch the nomination on June 7. That's just reality [View all]Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Practically speaking, it's been clear since mid-March that Clinton will win a majority of the pledged delegates. Technically speaking, of course she hasn't yet gotten to 2026. Nobody is foolish enough to argue that 1771 is more than 2025.
By mid-March, there were well-established patterns. Most notably the fact that Clinton does better, overall, in delegate-rich, diverse states. Given there was no reason to believe those patterns would suddenly get flipped upside down. it was plain to see that the writing was on the wall. Her delegate lead has remained greater than Obama's lead ever was in 2008. Because, again, those well-established patterns have held steady, as expected.
I wrote about this in the first half of March: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511460282
And a couple weeks after that: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511552338
And again earlier this month: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511990307
The only thing surprising is that not everyone recognized what was a pretty obvious point.