Calm Down, Theres No Impending Winter Hurricane

[babylonsister]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/calm-down-theres-no-impending-winter-hurricane?ref=home

Calm Down, There’s No Impending ‘Winter Hurricane’
A meteorologist explains why this week’s winter storm is just a winter storm.
Tanya Basu
01.03.18 5:00 AM ET


For those hoping 2018 would turn out to be a bit gentler on our frayed 2017 nerves, nature has a news blast: It won’t, at least climatologically.

What’s being called a rare “winter hurricane” is expected to batter the East Coast this first week of the new year, making the brutal cold freezing the country look like a springy fever dream: several inches of snow dumped amid howling winds reaching 55 mph and subzero temperatures.

However, while “winter hurricane” sounds like a Hollywood natural disaster blockbuster in the making, it’s not a true hurricane, according to James Kossin, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Center for Weather and Climate. “This is really just a problem of using the word ‘hurricane’ to describe something that’s not a hurricane,” Kossin, who specializes in studying hurricanes and climate change, said.

That’s right: According to Kossin, the frightening weather situation that’s going to ram into the Northeast and has thus far inspired headlines warning us to “brace for the apocalypse” and keep an eye out for a “bomb cyclone” are kind of the weather version of the boy crying wolf.

“This is what we would call a winter storm or an extra tropical storm,” Kossin said, waving off the hysteria during a phone call with The Daily Beast. “It just means we have hurricane-force winds.”

A hurricane is a specific weather phenomenon that requires a set of conditions: formation in the tropical region (they can form in higher latitudes but require tropical conditions that are rarely found further north), wind shear (the velocity of wind and its direction from the ground to the troposhere, about 40,000 feet above sea level in the tropics), and a drastic pressure drop.

This week’s storm, on the other hand, is just “a fairly classic winter storm,” Kossin said.

[Blues Heron]

1. Central pressure to rival hurricane sandy

Last edited Wed Jan 3, 2018, 10:22 AM - Edit history (1)

def one to not take lightly, winds will be fierce! Very dangerous storm on tap for the east coast.

edit to add NWS forecast discussion for New England

Strong to damaging winds...

This storm is becoming a serious situation in regards to the
damaging wind potential. Very strong pressure gradient from
this system will result in 925mb winds to increase around 50-70
kts. Which is near 4-5 Standard below normal. Most guidance is in
agreement that the core of the low level jet will be across the cape and
the island up into coastal Plymouth and into Cape Ann. Thus used
this as the placement of the Blizzard Warning as winds could be
around 55-65 miles per hour. It is not every day the conservative ec shows
a 925 mb jet of 70 kts over the region! These winds are likely
to be enhanced by strong pressure couplet moving through the
region. Thus confidence is high in a period of damaging winds
across the cape, islands and Cape Ann.

Outside of the coast, could see 40-55 miles per hour gusts across the I-95
corridor. Still some uncertainty on how much wind will mix to
the surface thus confidence was a bit lower on blizzard
potential - esp for vsbys criteria. However, these strong winds
combined with heavy wet snow could increase power outage
potential. Would not be surprised if the Blizzard Warning was
expanded.

Overall, anticipate a period of very strong winds which could
result in down trees and powerlines. Widespread power outages
are possible. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph will cause
whiteout conditions in blowing and drifting snow which could
impact the evening commute. Depending on where the heavy wet
snow sets up, this could also result in down tree limbs and
power lines. Lastly, any power outages will become problematic
as bitterly cold air overspreads the region Thu night in the
wake of the departing Nor'easter.