The New Nuclear Age: A Journey Into the Unknown
Ian Morris for Stratford
January 24, 2018
The 21st century, to be sure, has been safer than any earlier age. Worldwide only about one person in 150 dies violently today, just half the rate of the 20th century and a mere fraction of what applied in previous eras. The decline doesn't mean humanity has outgrown violence; it means that since 1945 most governments most of the time have concluded that in the geostrategic balance, the costs of using force outweighed the benefits. That balance, however, is changing ...We should perhaps not be too surprised that the United States' unprecedented, full-spectrum military dominance is now eroding. After all, the British Empire — the closest thing to a globocop the world had seen before 1991 — followed a similar trajectory...
Even though few countries are actively seeking nuclear weapons, dozens have now reached levels of wealth and development that would enable them to go nuclear quite quickly should the costs and benefits shift. North Korea's nuclear program might yet change the terms of the equation enough for Japan and South Korea to go nuclear, and should Iran eventually break out into nuclear territory, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt could decide to join it. An Asian continent crowded with nuclear-armed states is a terrifying prospect. But some strategists now worry that if governments in Europe grow sufficiently worried about the reliability of American nuclear support against Russian revanchism, the Continent could soon become a more dangerous place than it was even in 1914. Now that all calculations of costs and benefits are in disarray, who knows anymore whether violent actions might not pay off? We are entering a new world of risk-taking and adventurism.
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/new-nuclear-age-journey-unknown
Sobering and the Con is not up to this challenge.
