Nailbiter in PA special election

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Pennsylvania
Small Lead for Saccone in CD18
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Opinion on Trump helps Dem candidate remain in the hunt

West Long Branch, NJ – Republican Rick Saccone has a small advantage in the special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, even when the potential for a Democratic surge is taken into account. However, the Monmouth University Poll finds that a partisan gap in enthusiasm around President Donald Trump has helped Democrat Conor Lamb stay within striking distance.

Saccone holds a 49% to 46% edge over Democrat Conor Lamb in the race to fill the open House seat on March 13, using a turnout model similar to voting patterns seen in other special elections over the past year. Another 1% opt for a third party candidate and 4% are undecided. A historical turnout model, based on lower turnout than the 2014 midterm, gives Saccone a larger 50% to 45% lead. A model with higher turnout overall, similar to a presidential electorate, gives Saccone a 48% to 44% advantage. It is worth noting that all of these leads are within the poll’s margin of error for each model.

“Saccone has a slight edge, but it’s nowhere near the double digit advantage Republicans typically enjoy in this district. The potential for a Democratic surge like we have seen in other special elections helps Lamb stay in the hunt but it does not close the gap entirely,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. Monmouth used a similar multi-model approach in polling December’s special election for U.S. Senate in Alabama. That poll found a much wider 7 point swing between the low and high turnout models for that race.

Wow, the disgraced Republican incumbent who had to resign ran unopposed.

[vercetti2021]

1. We can take it

If we can take districts that Trump won by double digits, we can win this. GOTV!! GO PA!

[badhair77]

2. Where is the best place to donate?

I can’t give much but if enough of us give a little it adds up.

[winstars]

4. Conor Lamb [e-mail] I donated several weeks ago and this is the email addy...

Conor Lamb [e-mail]

[badhair77]

7. Thanks

On tomorrow’s to-do list.

[SoCalMusicLover]

3. Every Fucking District

It's just too bad they can't be wiped off the map completely. But if it has to be taken back one district at a time, so be it.

[tech3149]

5. Well, that's my district

I grew up here but was away for like 16 years until 2002. I was slack jawed at the level of right wing nut jobbery I had to deal with. Chalk it up to a constant barrage of "conservative" media bullshit. One lousy Scaife newspaper, broadcast media that was either RW or fluff. When I registered to vote I walked across the street and down the hill a bit to the Democratic party offices, no en casa no contact info. The Democratic party was just a ghost until a month or so before elections. It wasn't until a bit more than a year ago that they had any web presence or contact info.
Can't count the number of uncontested elections since I've come back home.
I was embarrassed that was two to one for Orange Julius.

Were I to offer the DNC my modest bit of advice it would be forget national elections. Put your money and efforts into rebuilding the local and state party 24/7/365 and then some. All of the people I dealt with in the local party are even older than me and were not very welcoming toward this old man. I'm pretty much a shut in these days but I hope they are open to the energy and ideas of the kids who want to be involved.

As far as Lamb, we could do better if we were grooming candidates and putting in the shoe leather instead of paying for the typical BS TV ads.

[spinbaby]

6. This district has been designed to be Republican

I’m thrilled to finally have a Democrat to vote for because we’ve had nothing but Murphy on the ballot in forever.