Friday Talking Points (474) -- "Trade Wars Are Good!" (As Hope Leaves The Building)

[ChrisWeigant]

Once again, it is the end of another fun week at the White House. Let's see, we had the president's son-in-law stripped of his top secret security clearance (right as two brand new Jared Kushner scandals were revealed, just as icing on the cake). We had a cabinet member in hot water over buying a $31,000 table for his office, assumably so he could be more comfortable while slashing billions of dollars for poor people. The top North Korea expert at the State Department quit, out of frustration with Trump's incoherent policies. Trump met with the N.R.A., but then seemed to agree with everything Democrats proposed during a meeting on gun control -- after which, the N.R.A. met with Trump again in a desperate move to yank him back to their extreme positions. We had Trump smacking his own attorney general around again, and amusingly learned that Trump sometimes calls him "Mr. Magoo" behind his back. Trump so annoyed the president of Mexico in a phone call that he cancelled a planned meeting with Trump in Washington. We had Russia announce a new nuclear arms race, and Trump announce a new trade war -- apparently because he was so annoyed at all the other bad news that he wanted to create some of his own. After the inevitable pushback, he insisted on Twitter that "Trade wars are good, and easy to win!" Well, we're all about to find out, aren't we? And to cap the week off, one of Trump's closest advisors, Hope Hicks, testified before Congress that her job required her to tell "white lies" to the public on a regular basis. The next day, she announced she was leaving the White House.

In other words, business as usual!

The trade war announcement took the prize for being the most bizarre thing that happened this week, and NBC News got the frightening inside story on how it all came to pass:

According to two officials, Trump's decision to launch a potential trade war was born out of anger at other simmering issues and the result of a broken internal process that has failed to deliver him consensus views that represent the best advice of his team.

On Wednesday evening, the president became "unglued," in the words of one official familiar with the president's state of mind.

A trifecta of events had set him off in a way that two officials said they had not seen before: Hope Hicks' testimony to lawmakers investigating Russia's interference in the 2016 election, conduct by his embattled attorney general and the treatment of his son-in-law by his chief of staff.

Trump, the two officials said, was angry and gunning for a fight, and he chose a trade war, spurred on by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Peter Navarro, the White House director for trade -- and against longstanding advice from his economic chair Gary Cohn and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin.

Ross threw together the meeting with steel and aluminum executives, but failed to list who they were -- meaning Secret Service background checks couldn't be done on them. Even John Kelly had no idea of who was going to show up. Everyone else at the White House had no idea what was going on -- no position papers were created, and the White House counsel's office reported it would take them two weeks to prepare a legal review of any tariffs. None of that stopped Trump, though.

There were no prepared, approved remarks for the president to give at the planned meeting, there was no diplomatic strategy for how to alert foreign trade partners, there was no legislative strategy in place for informing Congress and no agreed upon communications plan beyond an email cobbled together by Ross's team at the Commerce Department late Wednesday that had not been approved by the White House.

No one at the State Department, the Treasury Department or the Defense Department had been told that a new policy was about to be announced or given an opportunity to weigh in in advance.

The Thursday morning meeting did not originally appear on the president's public schedule. Shortly after it began, reporters were told that Ross had convened a "listening" session at the White House with 15 executives from the steel and aluminum industry.

Then, an hour later, in an another unexpected move, reporters were invited to the Cabinet room. Without warning, Trump announced on the spot that he was imposing new strict tariffs on imports.

By Thursday afternoon, the U.S. stock market had fallen and Trump, surrounded by his senior advisers in the Oval Office, was said to be furious.

If Trump is this disorganized when announcing a trade war -- one that had no external deadline to meet -- then what is going to happen if a real war ever happens on Trump's watch? It staggers the mind to even think about, really.

Trump wanted to create a distraction, and he was successful. The entire world reacted to his off-the-cuff comments, and not in a good way. Europe broadly hinted that they'd be coming up with a few tariffs of their own for U.S. goods, and that they'd be starting with Harley Davidson motorcycles and Kentucky bourbon. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell hails from Kentucky, and Harleys are built in House Speaker Paul Ryan's home district. Many other countries are also threatening tariffs on American goods as well. The White House will reportedly make the formal announcement of what it's going to do next week, so we'll have to see how it all plays out.

In other foreign policy news, the Mexican president cancelled a planned visit to Washington, after Trump refused to back down on his "Mexico will pay for the wall" fantasy during a phone call between the two presidents (where Trump reportedly "lost his temper" ). Russia not only rattled their nuclear sabers, they also provided a video-game preview of how awesome their new missiles would be.

Speaking of Russia, a new poll out showed that Americans trust Bob Mueller's investigation more than they do Trump. Three-fourths of Americans said they take the charges filed by Mueller seriously, 58 percent said the have "a lot or some trust" in Mueller's investigation, while 57 percent said they have "little or no trust" in the president's denials. So it's pretty obvious who is winning that public relations battle.

Speaking of high-level investigations, Jared Kushner seems to be hanging on by a thread at the White House. His security clearance got downgraded two big notches, from "Top Secret / Sensitive Compartmented Information" to just "Secret" -- a fairly low level for a top presidential advisor. The White House is still publicly standing behind Kushner, so perhaps he'll solve Middle East peace by the beginning of next week or something.

Or maybe not. Kushner, according to those who work closely with him, is now visibly "paranoid" with the attitude that "everyone's out to get him." Or maybe it's just his own personal chickens coming home to roost? Kushner apparently improperly met with banking executives just before the banks loaned him $500 million, bringing up the prospect of serious corruption charges. Kushner also met with foreign officials who tried to exploit him because they thought he was naive. All of this was revealed almost simultaneously, midweek. Just after the news broke of his security clearance humiliation. All of this has given rise to speculation about how much longer Kushner will stick around the White House. So maybe he's right about that "everyone's out to get him" sentiment?

But if Jared had a bad week, Hope Hicks can top that with the bad month she just had. On the first of February, a British tabloid published a paparazzi photo of Hope Hicks out on a date with Rob Porter. This was quickly followed by the news of abuse from Porter's two ex-wives, his hasty departure from the White House, and John Kelly having to crack down on temporary security clearances -- including Jared Kushner's. All that from one photo being made public in a foreign tabloid! Hicks then had to face questioning from both Bob Mueller and Congress, where she admitted she was expected to tell "white lies" as part of her job. The day after this rather stunning admission, she announced her exit from the Trump administration. She's saying she planned to leave a while ago, but then again, consider the source -- that's probably just another "white lie."

President Trump, before he got a bee in his bonnet over trade wars, tried to dominate the week on television by holding another one of those freewheeling sessions with members of Congress where he agrees with everyone on everything, so that later no matter what happens he can claim to be on the right side of the issue. Trump is never serious about anything he says in any of these meetings, though (see: previous immigration meeting), so while he did appear to be bucking the N.R.A. in support of many Democratic gun safety measures, no doubt by this time next week he'll have completely changed his mind -- after the N.R.A. leaders share another few meals with him. The real moral of this story should be, for everyone in Congress of either party, that you simply cannot trust anything the president ever says, even a tiny little bit. That's one heck of a thing to say about a president, but that doesn't make it any less true. Trump tried to appear as if he were leading the gun control effort, but in the end he just looked like he was flailing around on a subject he had very little knowledge of.

The episode did provide solid proof of a popular theory -- that Donald Trump just repeats back what the last person he talked to said, on pretty much any issue under the sun. This happened on immigration, and it will no doubt happen if any actual gun control legislation appears in Congress. Trump, after saying he'd go along with all sorts of things, will be talked out of it at the last minute by the N.R.A. Exactly the same as happened on immigration -- he always believes what the last person he talked to told him.

One thing Trump seems to strongly favor is arming teachers. However, that stance took a serious blow this week, after a teacher shot a handgun through a window in a standoff at a school. So if arming teachers is going to lead to this sort of thing, then the only logical next step would be to arm all the students, too, so they can take out a rogue teacher, right? Because that certainly wouldn't be a recipe for disaster or anything.

Maybe that's why Trump decided almost immediately afterward to drop his bombshell on steel and aluminum tariffs? It certainly did change the subject on cable news in a hurry, that's for sure. Trump went from looking incoherent on guns to looking downright scary on a trade war, and scary beats incoherent in the ratings every time. Winning! So much winning!

And some interesting news to close on. Paul Manafort's trial has now been scheduled. It'll take place starting on September 17. That is precisely a month and a half before the midterm elections, in case anyone's forgotten. So that'll certainly give everyone something to talk about, right before deciding which candidate to vote for!





We've got two Honorable Mention awards to hand out this week, to two Phils: Phil Spagnuolo and Phil Young. Spagnuolo won a state legislative seat in New Hampshire this week, flipping a district that Trump had won 54-41 to a vote of 54 percent Democratic to 46 percent Republican. Young won a seat in the Connecticut statehouse hours later, the first Democrat to represent the district in 44 years.

These are the 38th and 39th state legislative seats that Democrats have flipped, since Trump's election. Republicans have only flipped four seats during the same period, giving Democrats a net 35-seat victory, mostly in special elections. Many hundreds of these seats will be in play this November, when the regular election cycle happens, of course. So far, it is looking pretty good for the Democrats, as they continue to flip seat after seat after seat in special elections. So that's something to look forward to, hopefully.

But this week's Most Impressive Democrat Of The Week award goes to Washington state's governor, Jay Inslee. In a meeting Trump had with a group of governors, Inslee directly took on Trump's idea to arm teachers, in no uncertain terms:

I have listened to the biology teachers, and they don't want to do that. I've listened to the first-grade teachers that don't want to be pistol-packing first-grade teachers. I've listened to law enforcement, who have said they don't want to have to train teachers as law enforcement agents. I just suggest we need a little less tweeting here and a little more listening, and let's just take that off the table and move forward.

This was before the news broke of the teacher who shot out a window with his handgun, it bears mentioning. Trump needs to be told this is a very bad idea, over and over again, to his face. For showing everyone else how to do so, Jay Inslee is our Most Impressive Democrat Of The Week this week.

{Congratulate Washington Governor Jay Inslee on his official contact page, to let him know you appreciate his efforts.}





Last week, we gave the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee -- the official group whose job it is to get Democrats elected to the House -- the Most Disappointing Democrats Of The Week award. This week, we are giving them their second straight award, for their ham-fisted meddling in Democratic primary elections.

First, an update from last week. The D.C.C.C., rather incredibly, launched a smear campaign on Democratic candidate Laura Moser in Texas. This has now backfired spectacularly. Moser explains what happened as a direct result:

People have been very supportive. We've had like 18 lunches delivered to the office from people we don't know, all over the country. Before we'd sent out a fundraising email about this -- I think we sent it at 5 p.m., my time -- we'd raised $20,000. Now it's a donation every second. And you what? I'd trade it all to have a functional Democratic Party that had unity and wanted to win.

Moser reportedly raised over $90,000 and moved up in the polling for the Democratic primary from sixth place to second. If the polls are right, this would secure her place in a May runoff -- which was exactly what the D.C.C.C. had tried to prevent. D'oh!

But that apparently wasn't the only primary hanky-panky they were up to. Which brings us to the story of a black Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania. Here's his story:

The drama in Pennsylvania is centered on Greg Edwards, a pastor running for a newly-drawn swing seat in the Lehigh Valley. On Thursday, he told The Washington Post that the DCCC had approached local Democrats to ask whether he could be persuaded to seek another office.

"As far as I know they only targeted one candidate to leave this race -- the most progressive candidate, the only candidate of color," said Edwards. "Their inability to understand why that's fundamentally wrong says everything."

The DCCC pushed back on Edwards's claims, saying that the unique situation in Pennsylvania, where a court struck down a gerrymandered map and created 18 new districts just weeks before party primaries, prompted them to ask several candidates if they might run instead for offices further down the ballot.

Progressives weren't buying it, however.

"It's a shame that the DCCC and the wealthy white donors and revolving door consultants that make up the Democratic Party establishment are actively trying to stop Greg {Edwards}," said Waleed Shahid, a spokesman for Justice Democrats, a group that has endorsed left-leaning candidates in a number of races, some with incumbents, where party leaders prefer different candidates. "Their consultant-driven strategy seems to prefer milquetoast candidates who they believe can appeal to moderate Republicans over progressive candidates of color. This is what systemic racism looks like."

Whether race had anything to do with it or not is really immaterial, however, because the manipulative behavior would still stink even if race weren't an issue. It's not just on the Republican side where the rank and file is pretty downright disgusted with the party's establishment, in other words. The D.C.C.C. has a long way to go to repair its image after the past two weeks, but it is heartening to see small donors giving their money directly to progressive candidates rather than cycling their dollars through any party organization.

Why should an official Democratic organization be picking winners in primary races in the first place? Either it should spread its money around equally to all Democratic candidates, or it should stay on the sidelines until a nominee is chosen and the general election begins. For the second week in a row, the D.C.C.C. has proven to be beyond disappointing. Which is why they're getting their second straight Most Disappointing Democrats Of The Week award.

{Contact the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on its contact page, to let them know what you think of their actions.}




Volume 474 (3/2/18)

There's no overarching theme to this week's talking points, since there was no overarching theme to this week's politics. There were so many competing themes that it was actually hard to limit ourselves to just seven this week. As many have noted, the level of chaos within the White House has seemingly returned to where it was right after Trump took office, and we didn't have a "scandal of the week," but more like a "scandal of the day" or even hourly scandals competing for attention. Just another week in paradise, in other words.



Hope-less

There were two bits of snark worth repeating, as well as the obvious pun.

"Reaction to the news that Hope Hicks was leaving the White House was swift, and snarky. Washington Post reporter Paul Kane tweeted: 'WH comms director, it's like being the drummer in Spinal Tap,' while CBS reporter Katie Wilson put things in the proper perspective: 'Hope Hicks lasted approximately 19.6 Scaramuccis as communications director.' Yes, it's now official -- the White House will soon be literally Hope-less."



Little white lies

It was pretty easy to draw this line, whether true or not.

"So let's see... Hope Hicks admits to Congress one day that she was required to tell, as she put it, 'white lies' in her job as White House Communications Director, and the very next day she's off to 'spend more time with her family,' as they say. Might there have been an Apprentice-style 'you're fired' in between those two events? After all, to Donald Trump, the cardinal sin is admitting that they are lies in the first place. Trump never would admit such a thing, and he expects those around him to follow his lead. Hicks let the cat out of the bag, and soon after she was gone."



Lies, damned lies, and Donald Trump

Of course, Hicks should have known better.

"Hicks should have learned how to lie from the master. After all, the easy test for whether Donald Trump is lying or not is: 'Is his mouth open?' According to those who have tackled the neverending and gargantuan job of keeping up with Trump's lies, Trump is now up to over 2,400 lies since he took office just over 400 days ago. Trump lies, on average, six times a day, and I personally have never heard him admit that a single one of them wasn't accurate. Hicks should have followed Trump's example, obviously."



Speaking of Trump whoppers...

Trump said one of the most unbelievable things he ever has this week -- and that's saying something!

"Did you hear Trump's boasting about what he'd do in a school shooting? He stated that, quote, I really believe I'd run in, even if I didn't have a weapon, unquote. Now, a show of hands -- who actually believes that, other than Donald Trump? Anyone? Who really believes that Captain Bone Spurs is going to leap into action and wrestle a guy wielding an assault rifle to the ground with his bare hands? Trump obviously has been watching too many action movies, and he also obviously believes he should be starring in all of them. It's downright pathetic, folks."



Jared can't see that, sorry

Since he's already reportedly getting paranoid, why not pile on?

"Jared Kushner is going to have to get used to his coworkers repeatedly saying things like: 'Sorry, Jared, you're not cleared to read this,' or: 'You can't attend this meeting, Jared, because your security clearance is too low.' He's already lost access to the daily presidential brief on national security, and he won't have access to top secret information before meeting with foreign leaders anymore. Kushner's reportedly going to concentrate on prison reform here at home, with all the free time he'll now have. That's probably a good idea, since in the near future there may be many members of the Trump administration who care a great deal about the treatment of prisoners in federal lockups."



What about the other 30?

Of course, it wasn't just Jared, although most in the media haven't really noticed.

"John Kelly stripped top secret clearance not only from Jared Kushner, but also reportedly from at least 30 others working in the White House. Think about that just for a minute -- almost three dozen people who work for Trump can't get a security clearance in over a year's time. What are they all hiding? What in their past could they be blackmailed over? That's an extraordinarily high number of top aides who have been reading top secret information for months, but who are apparently vulnerable to extortion. John Kelly should make public the entire list of people who had temporary top secret clearances revoked last week. The public has a right to know who in the Trump White House can't pass a background check."



What could possibly go wrong?

It's easy!

"Donald Trump tweeted today that 'trade wars are good, and easy to win.' After all, what could possibly go wrong with tariffs? Well, let's see what some other Republicans think, shall we? Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch responded to Trump's announcement with: 'Tariffs on steel and aluminum are a tax hike the American people don't need and can't afford.' Republican Senator Ben Sasse put it even more bluntly: 'Let's be clear: the president is proposing a massive tax increase on American families.' The Wall Street Journal chimed in with some facts to consider: 'Mr. Trump seems not to understand that steel-using industries in the U.S. employ some 6.5 million Americans, while steel makers employ about 140,000.' That's before they pointed out that companies will now have a big incentive to move their factories abroad, and then just import the finished product back, to avoid the tariffs. Maybe Trump should read a book about another Republican president, Herbert Hoover, if he wants to learn how 'easy' trade wars turn out to be."




Chris Weigant blogs at: ChrisWeigant.com
Follow Chris on Twitter: ChrisWeigant
Full archives of FTP columns: FridayTalkingPoints.com
All-time award winners leaderboard, by rank