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Democrats are on the verge of a major upset victory deep in Trump country, according to a new bipartisan poll shared first with TPM.
Democrat Conor Lamb leads Republican Rick Saccone by 48 percent to 44 percent in a survey conducted by RABA Research, a bipartisan firm. That would mark a huge upset in a conservative district that stretches from Pittsburgh to the West Virginia border that President Trump won by 20 points in 2016. It would give Democrats their first House special election victory of the Trump era on Tuesday night.
That marks the largest lead for Lamb seen in any public polling so far but its not far from what other public and private polls have found in recent days and weeks on the race, most of which have found a margin-of-error race with Lamb having the momentum. Two other public polls of the race found each candidate with a three-point lead, and Republicans are privately sounding more than a little gloomy about Saccones chances on Tuesday.
Trump plans to campaign there on Saturday to try to goose GOP base turnout for Saccone, who has mightily struggled with fundraising and getting his name out there as GOP outside groups have had to pick up the slack with millions of dollars worth of TV ads. But according to the survey, the president is currently unpopular with the districts most likely voters, with 48 percent of those saying they definitely or probably plan to vote in the race disapproving of his job performance to just 44 percent who approve. Similarly, the poll suggests a lopsided edge for Democratic enthusiasm: Though the district is fairly solidly Republican, 41 percent of those surveyed said they were Democratic and 40 percent identified as Republican.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/exclusive-dem-leads-in-new-poll-of-hotly-contested-pennsylvania-house-race
If he wins, youre going to see probably another half a dozen Republicans say theyre not running again, Mr. Biden told a reporter on a meet-and-greet rope line, adding that Mr. Lamb could also show the way toward that holiest of Democratic grails: getting back working-class people supporting us again.
- Joe Biden
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/1747776
From Conor's page -
"Conor Lamb is a Marine, a former federal prosecutor, and the Democratic nominee for the March 13th special election in Pennsylvanias 18th Congressional District, located in Southwestern Pennsylvania. Conors priorities include taking immediate action to fight the heroin crisis, creating and protecting good jobs, making health care more affordable, protecting Medicare and Social Security, and reforming our broken student loan system."
https://conorlamb.com
You can add energy to the Blue Wave by donating at Conor's page.
I just gave, I like a guy that sets off republican alarm bells!
bearsfootball516
(6,377 posts)A dead heat race in todays political climate, and with republicans underperforming and democrats overperforming across the board ever since last fall. I like his chances.
orangecrush
(19,553 posts)He is addressing all the right issues for us Pennsylvania Democrats!
PA Democrat
(13,225 posts)Then there are the mailers.... I have been getting at least two a day with some outrageous lie attacking Conor Lamb. Any day now I expect the slimy GOP to blame Lamb for the plague and male pattern baldness.
orangecrush
(19,553 posts)As Joe would say!