Tuesday 4/24 AZ 8th Congressional District is a race the Republicans cannot lose
Background here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arizona%27s_8th_congressional_district_special_election,_2018
And yet this district, which
In 2016 Trent won this district by 37 points
In 2016 Trump won this district by 21 points
With a great campaign by Hiral Tipirneni the latest polls have her tied, slightly ahead or slightly behind Trumps number one fan Debbie Lesko.
If the Democrats win this deeply red seat in AZ then it would look very good for Kyrsten Sinema who already has a significant lead in state wide polls and a war chest of $ 6 million compared to the combined $ 1 million for ALL the Republican candidates.
Oh and please note: For those of us who had hoped that Mark Kelly (Astronaut husband of Gabrielle Giffords) who declined to run for "Jeff Flakes" seat (but did not mention John McCain's seat) so that Kyrsten would have a clear field to run on the Democratic side, please note that Mark Kelly and Gabrielle Giffords was at Dr. Tipirneni's send off rally tonight before tomorrow's election. Should Dr. Kelly run in Arizona he would be a very formidable candidate. Should Mr. McCain's seat become open before June then current law would have both seats on the ballot in Arizona.
Tomorrow is a very important day for the Democratic Party. If we win in the 8th then everyone believes we have an excellent chance to take Flake's seat. It could be the decisive seat to take back the Senate.
No one believed that it would be possible to take this seat which the Republican incumbent won by 37 points but the Democrats of the AZ 8th have gone all out to make this miracle happen.
Good luck Dr. Tipirneni.
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Democrats are not suggesting they are winning nearly every independent vote, but they do think there's an underappreciated demographic in the race: Republicans crossing over to vote for the Democrat.
If Tipirneni attracted 20 percent of Republicans and won independents by just 10 percentage points, she could lose 10 percent of her party's voters and still be within 5 percentage points of Lesko.
How the party loyalists and independents come down will determine whether the race ends as an underwhelming Republican performance or a Democratic shocker that would reshape Congress even before November's elections.
The district skews higher education Republicans, Trumps weakest Republican demographic. It is possible that enough higher educated Republican women who will be particularly repulsed by Leskos' hardline anti-abortion stance and attracted to Dr. Tipirnerni's strong medical and health care positions to make a difference.
Indications that this might be happening are the large crowds she got in very Republican areas including this meeting in Sun City
We should know in a few hours
