Trump's unpopularity is a big story

[struggle4progress]

By Greg Sargent April 24 at 10:47 AM

A new Gallup poll has some folks excitedly tweeting that President Trump’s reelection chances are similar to those of Barack Obama and Bill Clinton before him — both of whom, you may recall, did get reelected — but the more important story is what Gallup concludes about the depths of Trump’s historic unpopularity.

The poll finds that a solid majority — 59 percent — of Americans say Trump does not deserve to be reelected, vs. only 37 percent who say he does. But Gallup’s headline blares: “Trump’s Re-Elect Figures Similar to Those of Obama, Clinton.” And it’s true, as Gallup says, that these numbers are “essentially identical” to those of Clinton and Obama “at the time of the 1994 and 2010 midterm elections, respectively.”

But that comparison takes the current moment, which comes a little more than six months before the 2018 midterm elections, and compares it to the Obama and Clinton polling at around the time of Election Day. And, as Gallup notes, those numbers for Obama and Clinton led to truly huge midterm losses ...

Because Trump has blown through so many norms, the question of whether the American public is rejecting him is a momentous one. Trump has embraced overt racism, xenophobia and authoritarianism, in the form of regular racial provocations, assaults on our institutions and the rule of law, and an unprecedented level of self-dealing that basically constitutes a big middle finger to the country. He has married all this to orthodox GOP economic priorities — indeed .. the three pillars of Trump-era conservatism are self-enriching plutocracy, racism and authoritarianism ...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/04/24/trumps-historic-unpopularity-is-a-big-important-story/

[struggle4progress]

1. That Gallup poll that shows Trump's re-election numbers equal to Obama's

Analysis by Chris Cillizza and Harry Enten, CNN
Updated 3:42 PM ET, Tue April 24, 2018

... There were six different times since the 1948 election with polls at this point in the cycle in which the eventual matchup was surveyed.

1948: President Harry Truman was tied with Republican challenger Thomas Dewey
1956: President Dwight Eisenhower held a 8-point advantage over Democrat Adlai Stevenson
1980: President Jimmy Carter held a 7-point lead over Republican Ronald Reagan
1984: President Ronald Reagan was tied with Democrat Walter Mondale
1996: President Bill Clinton was ahead of Republican Bob Dole by 9 points
2012: President Barack Obama was up 8 points over Republican Mitt Romney

Note that in none of these polls was the incumbent in anywhere near as bad shape as Trump is right now. I'll note there were other years where the eventual matchup wasn't polled at this time, but in all of those the incumbent was either tied or well ahead of the leading challenger.

Trump is in historically bad shape ...

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/24/politics/trumps-approval-rating/index.html

[Bernardo de La Paz]

11. Those are all Presidential election years. Now is two years before. Not directly comparable. . . nt

[struggle4progress]

2. 2018 will be nationwide referendum on Trump

BY FORMER REP. MICHAEL ANDREWS (D-TEXAS), OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 04/23/18 07:00 AM EDT 191 THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY CONTRIBUTORS ARE THEIR OWN AND NOT THE VIEW OF THE HILL

... With the exception of two midterm elections since World War II, every president with an approval rating below 50 percent has lost a double-digit number of seats in the House. The average loss is 22 seats.

Democrats need to pick up 24 seats to retake the House. Gerrymandered districts will buck the historical trends, but past midterms are a good indication of what will likely happen this November. A president’s party gained seats in the House in only five midterm elections in American history.

At the end of his first year in office, President Trump was the most unpopular president in modern presidential politics. His approval rating has hovered between 35 percent and 40 percent, and no president has had job approval ratings this low leading into the midterm elections. Presidents with those numbers have averaged a loss of 40 seats in the House. The latest polling average shows Trump’s popularity rising to 40 percent, his best number since the early weeks of his administration.

In 2010, President Obama had a 45 percent approval rating, and Democrats lost 63 seats. In 1994, President Clinton had a 46 percent approval rating, and Democrats lost 54 seats. These “wave elections” were devastating to the incumbent president’s party. The two exceptions in which a president’s party picked up seats in midterm elections occurred in 1998, when President Clinton enjoyed a 66 percent approval rating, and in 2002, when President Bush had a 63 percent approval rating ...

http://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/384368-2018-elections-will-be-nationwide-referendum-on-president-trump

[struggle4progress]

3. Republicans losing 2018 midterm money wars

POSTED 1:48 PM, APRIL 22, 2018, BY CNN WIRE

... CNN’s John King reports that for months, more seasoned members of the party’s leadership have been warning younger members about what’s needed when running in such a difficult climate. Those warnings include urgent appeals to raise more money; resources for ads and research and staff are always important, but all the more so in a midterm climate where Republicans know the wind is in their face.

But a new wave of fund-raising reports filed in recent days show way more Republicans on the short end of the money chase, especially in races viewed as critical to the 2018 battlefield ...

In the 88 House races CNN ranks as the most competitive, consider this significant difference:

*40 Republican incumbents in these races have been out-raised by their Democratic challengers.

*Only two Democratic incumbents in this group were out-raised by GOP challengers ...

http://cw39.com/2018/04/22/republicans-are-losing-2018-midterm-money-wars/

[struggle4progress]

4. Is the Democratic wave receding? Not really

... Peter Hart, who conducts the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, which shows a seven-point Democratic advantage, still thinks the blue wave that Democrats hope for is coming.

A Democrat not given to partisan exuberance, Hart cites a more important factor than the generic-preference questions that pollsters are asking now: intensity. Two-thirds of Democrats in his survey expressed a strong interest in this year's election vs. 49 percent of Republicans, exactly the intensity advantage Republicans had in 2010, when they won back the House in a landslide.

Other positive indicators for Democrats include the near-record number of congressional Republican retirements. Money is also pouring in. In two notable upset victories, an Alabama Senate election in December and a March Pennsylvania House contest, the Democratic winners raised more money than they spent. The Political Hotline reported this week that at least one challenger has out-raised more than 40 Republican incumbents. That's unusual.

Most important is to look at what voters already are doing this year at the state and local level. Mark Gersh, a seasoned Democratic strategist with encyclopedic knowledge of political geography, has analyzed the six state legislative districts that flipped this year from Republicans to Democrats. None has flipped the other way in 2018 ...

http://www.omaha.com/opinion/albert-r-hunt-is-the-democratic-wave-receding-not-really/article_ce872410-3043-5390-80db-c7a565def3f1.html

[Hoyt]

5. Let's hope everyone is rejecting him for racism, etc. But some other polls indicate some are

dissatisfied because he has NOT deported millions, bombed Iran and NK, cut SS and Medicare, etc.

Way to early for these polls to mean much. I'd rather we take House and Senate in 2018, and make sure a GOPer Prez candidate loses in 2020.

[struggle4progress]

6. Your mission, should you choose to accept it ...

Non-voters' dislike of Trump isn't likely to make them vote in 2018
Marilyn Icsman, USA TODAY
Published 3:13 p.m. ET April 23, 2018 | Updated 3:34 p.m. ET April 23, 2018

WASHINGTON — Millions of Americans stay home every election, and the 2018 midterms are unlikely to be much different despite broad disapproval of President Trump and discontent with the direction of the country, according to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.

Those who regularly skip a trip to the polls cite a broad array of factors driving their lack of participation. Some say they don't trust politicians, or they don't think their vote will change anything. Others say the electoral choices are uninspiring, or they simply don't have the time and transport to get to their local polling place.

In a nationwide survey of 800 infrequent or unregistered voters, 56% of poll respondents said they felt the country was on the wrong track and nearly 55% rated Trump unfavorably. Yet 83% of those polled said they are “not very likely” or “not at all likely” to vote in 2018. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 3.47 percent.

Fifteen percent of unregistered voters said their vote “doesn’t count” or “won’t make a difference.” Nine percent of registered voters said the same ...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/04/23/poll-non-voters-dislike-donald-trump-isnt-likely-make-them-vote-2018/540709002/

[gratuitous]

7. You'd think Trump's deep and enduring popularity would color some of the media coverage

Instead, we get straight reporting of the most hare-brained ideas to come down the pike in a long time, coupled with breathless interviews of nincompoops who are convinced that Trump is the political equivalent of Christ come down from the cross. If there's any "balance" to the story, it's usually some back-bencher nobody's ever heard of with the most tepid opposition imaginable. Sometimes that nobody is even a Democrat, but not always.

Can we get some robust analysis from the popular media?

[Kirk Lover]

8. Not sure what you're watching but the liberal pundits I see are quick, smart and sassy. n/t

[gratuitous]

10. Morning and evening news shows, mostly

I should hope that the commentators, particularly on the liberal side, are on this. But the news reporting is very quiet on the subject of Trump's unpopularity, and seem invested in making his nutty pronouncements seem normal. For instance, over the weekend Trump was going on about the Iran treaty and what a terrible deal it is, and how he was going to renegotiate it or something.

Not one peep on the news about the complexities involved, getting not only Iran to return to the bargaining table, but also England, France, Russia and China. No word on how this bluster might play with our allies, who worked out the treaty in good faith under Obama only to have Trump upset the apple cart to no apparent purpose. Have the news folks just given up, and decided to parrot whatever nonsense crosses Trump's empty head at any given moment, or are they just numbed to his constant rapid-fire changes?

[Demovictory9]

9. kick

[world wide wally]

12. I have never seen the intensity of hatred toward a President at this level in my entire life.

You can take that to the bank.

[unblock]

13. in the real world, yeah. but in much of the media, they still take him seriously.

if this were a democrat, the *least* they would do is call him a lame duck.

they would be constantly describing him as "deeply unpopular" if not "perhaps the most reviled president ever".

they would be constantly harping on how he has "no political clout".

they would derail any discussion of anything by noting what a "deep cloud of scandal" he is under.

they would question how he could possibly govern with such overwhelmingly strong disapproval.

they would wonder why he isn't stepping down "for the good of the nation".


but it's a republican, so instead we hear all about his state dinner and his efforts at peace in the korean peninsula or we talk about his trade "policies" and "strategies" as if there's some there there.

[japple]

14. I saw the hatred towards President Obama from most people I worked with and most

people in my red community, red county, red state from the time before he was elected until 2016.

[Scurrilous]

15. K&R