An Early Start to Hurricane Season in the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic? Dr. Jeff Masters

[malaise]

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/early-start-hurricane-season-eastern-pacific-and-atlantic
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The Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially starts on May 15, but for the second year in a row, we have the potential to see a record-early start to the season. Satellite imagery on Wednesday morning showed that a concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula (90E), had acquired plenty of spin, but was not yet organized enough to be labeled a tropical depression.

Conditions were favorable for development, with low wind shear of 5 – 10 knots and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) a warm 28°C (82°F), about 1°F above average. The 6Z (2 am EDT) Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that 90E had a relatively short window for development, though, with wind shear predicted to rise into the high range, 20 – 30 knots, by Thursday afternoon. In a special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 12:15 am EDT Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave 90E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 70%. 90E is far out at sea, and will not affect any land areas. The first name on the Eastern Pacific list of storm names in 2018 is Aletta.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1, but if recent long-range runs of the GFS model are correct, the season could get off to an early start. The GFS model has been predicting that late next week, an area of disturbed weather over Central America will act as the seed to get a tropical storm spinning in the Western Caribbean. Water temperatures there are near 28°C (82°F)—about 0.5°C above average, and plenty warm enough to support a hurricane. The subtropical jet stream—which is typically located over the Caribbean in May, creating high wind shear that interferes with hurricane development—is predicted to lift northwards by late next week, creating conditions favorable for tropical cyclone genesis. However, the long range runs of the European model have not been supporting this idea, and the GFS forecasts of a tropical storm in the Caribbean late next week should be viewed as interesting, but improbable—worth lifting one eyebrow at, but not two.

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Looks like time to prepare for the real season

[Uncle Joe]

1. Kicked and recommended.

Stay safe malaise.

[malaise]

2. We haven't had an island wide hit since 1988 with Gilbert

We always prepare for the worst. This year I'm doing something different - starting veggies in pots which can come indoors during a storm and be transplanted after a hurricane (if a big one hits us).

The Eastern Pacific is worth watching for development. The rest of the northern Caribbean will have heavy May rains (as usual).

[mitch96]

3. Ok, pucker factor set

I hate hurricanes.....
m
SoFla

[malaise]

4. Same here

Early days- start preparations and watch - the real problems are down the line in peak season.

[Blue_true]

5. Normally we are ok this far up Florida.

But we took a good shot last fall. Power was out for two weeks in some areas.

[mitch96]

15. No Power, that's what sucks

Ok, hide from the wind and run from the water. I get it.. But when it's late August/early Sept in South Florida....... It's H&H... Hot and humid. No power means nobody's gonna be happy.
Generators hummin' and gas lines growin'. It's the "after" thats the bitch.. Ask Puerto Rico.
m

[Blue_true]

16. It does get nasty.

I taught myself a new way to bathe last fall during that time. Very efficient and hygienic method and I don't have to stand under running water for long at all, so no more 12-15 minute cold assed showers.

[mitch96]

17. My Ex Navy father called them

a "Marine" bath.. wet crotch and butt, add soap, rinse, repeat. Wet armpits,neck and face. Add soap, rinse, repeat... Dry said areas...
m

[Blue_true]

20. Actually, I clean head downward.

You dad could not waste water. I call the Navy bath the hotspot bath. When you don't have much water, clean the areas that will stink if not cleaned. But I have learned to shampoo and full bathe with about a gallon of water, a bathtowel and a bar of soap, rinsing is where I use more water than your dad, though if I worked at it, I could likely reduce. A normal adult use 25-30 gallons of water per bath (low flow shower head), I use about 8-10 gallons, still much, much more than your dad used while he was in the Navy, I would guess that using 1 gallon was wasteful for him.

[mitch96]

21. "Actually, I clean head downward."

I think your right.. I got it bass ackwards.. Water runs down hill...
m

[Blue_true]

22. Yeah, the results could be surprising if it doesn't.

[Grammy23]

6. Dang! Time to replenish the Hurricane Stash.

We still have some stuff from last year...a few cans of meat and veggies. Time to check batteries, emergency radios, propane for the grill and assorted other supplies. If you live on the Gulf Coast It is just what you do in May or early June to get ready for summer. AKA Hurricane Season. Don’t wait until the storm is barking up your tree or the only thing you’ll find at the store is Potted Meat. 😜 My late father loved potted meat, by the way. He mixed it with diced onion, pickle relish and mayonnaise and spread it on white, Colonial Bread. It was a favorite snack. His other fav was Limburger cheese.

[malaise]

9. I hate canned food

I store lots of peas. My mom loved corned beef and sardines.
Have to replenish the first aid kit and batteries.

[Grammy23]

14. Not too fond of the canned stuff myself.

But after a hurricane, even canned soup or chicken beats a sandwich...especially after several days of eating whatever you can cobble together without power and the usual amenities. Ask me how I know. 😉

I try to put on my thinking cap when it comes to food during a disaster and we’ve had some strange feasts cooking up food from the (melting) freezer. After some hurricanes, there have been some spontaneous episodes of neighborhood sharing of food as people frantically try to cook up food before it spoils. Disasters can bring out the best AND the worst in people. Being helpful and generous with neighbors is one of the things that helps make a difficult, stressful time better! After one storm, several neighbors sat in the driveway, playing cards, drinking beer and swapping storm stories like we were all at a casual bar b que. It makes a good social experiment to see how long people think it is kinda fun and not a pain in the a$$. LOL.

[Blue_true]

18. I don't understand why some people in Hawaii love SPAM so much.

I tried some four weeks ago in case I needed to go to canned food, damn it was awful. Last fall, at least some restaurants opened fast and I was able to eat out.

[panader0]

7. Drier than a popcorn fart here.

The javelina come at night to drink from buckets I leave out. The fools knock them
over. All of the desert animals around here hang out at my place. Coyotes, javelina,
roadrunners galore, birds and rodents all waiting for the rain.
Occasional mule deer, many hawks.....

[malaise]

10. You're a good person

They know you care

[ornotna]

8. I'm dreading this season

Hopefully no direct hits like last year. Not sure my roof could handle it again. Time to stock up again.

[malaise]

11. You don't need another direct hit

[Blue_true]

19. May become very common.

Can't say that we haven't earned it with our blindness about the environment.

[NightWatcher]

12. I'm scheduled to finally get my roof repaired in the next ten days

It got beat up last season.

I'm not ready for this again.

[malaise]

13. Same here although we were very lucky these past two years

One of these days our luck will run out. I still don't know how Matthew missed us and destroyed Haiti again back in 2016.