Will 2018 be the year of the donkey in Arizona?
This year, 225 legislative candidates, including several dozen teachers, are running – up from 190 in a typical year.
Democrats, usually MIA in many districts, are challenging Republican incumbents who normally would enjoy a free ride.
Only seven of 30 Senate seats are uncontested in the general election, all of them held by Democrats. The House will feature a mere three uncontested races, all in Democratic districts.
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Democrats believe they can take the Senate, which would throw a monkey wrench into Ducey’s second-term plans, assuming he survives his own challenge.
That seems unlikely. But there is a good chance that Democrats could pick up two seats, splitting the Senate 15-15. For that to happen, they’d have to snag two Republican seats and hold a third one they picked up in 2016.
Barnes called it “plausible” that Democrats get to 15, loosening the Republicans’ stranglehold on state government.
“What 15-15 really means is Democratic control,” he said. “So it’s a powerful thing. It would change the entire Legislature for sure.”
Senate races to watch:
District 28. A Republican civil war has broken out in this north-central Phoenix swing district and Democrats are rubbing their hands with glee over the prospect of picking up this Senate seat.
It seems Republican Rep. Maria Syms is irritated that Kathy Petsas – like Sen. Kate Brophy McGee from the more moderate branch of the party – decided to run for one of the two House seats. A single-shot strategy often has been used in this district to boost a House candidate’s odds of winning and Syms doesn’t much like the idea of competition from a fellow Republican.
In retaliation, Syms’ husband is running as an independent against Brophy McGee, who the couple apparently believes convinced Petsas to run.
The presence of Mark Syms on the general election ballot will bleed votes from Brophy McGee. Waiting in the wings is Democrat Christine Marsh, the 2016 Arizona teacher of the year.
District 6. Yet another intra-party war has broken out in this northern Arizona district as term-limited Rep. Brenda Barton takes on Sen. Sylvia Allen.
Whoever wins the GOP primary will face Holbrook Vice Mayor Wade Carlisle, a Democrat.
This district, which sprawls across parts of Coconino, Gila, Yavapai and Navajo counties, is considered a Republican district. But Allen barely eked out a win in 2016, defeating former Jerome Mayor Nikki Bagley, a Democrat, with just 50.91 percent of the vote. This, with the help of a nearly $17,000 dark money campaign launched to help Allen by American Federation for Children, a driving force behind the push to expand school vouchers.
If Allen is the nominee, Republicans could have trouble here.
District 18. Democrats made off with this Chandler district in 2016 when Sean Bowie edged out Republican Frank Schmuck with just over 51 percent of the vote. In the GOP primary, Schmuck had knocked off then-Sen. Jeff Dial, whose military record had come under scrutiny.
Now comes the Bowie-Schmuck rematch. This one represents the Republicans’ best chance to regain a seat.
Also worth a watch:
District 8. This Pinal County swing district will be another battleground though Republicans have been gaining in strength here. Currently, it’s represented by Republican Sen. Frank Pratt, who in 2016 knocked off the Democratic incumbent, Barbara McGuire.
This year, Pratt has to win a primary and then would face either Democrat Sharon Girard or Natali Fierros Bock, a former teacher and Democratic Party activist who lives in the San Tan Valley.
Probably a long shot that this one will change hands.
https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2018/06/05/2018-year-donkey-arizona-elections-politics/674172002/
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