Theresa May must push for even softer Brexit, says thinktank

[applegrove]

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/01/theresa-may-must-push-for-even-softer-brexit-says-thinktank?__twitter_impression=true

Larry Elliot at the Guardian

"SNIP.......


The more limited proposals for market access in the recently published white paper would lead to a loss of output amounting to £500 per person over time, compared to a soft Brexit.

“The loss would be around £800 under a ‘no deal’ Brexit. These estimates do not include the likely impact on productivity which could, on some estimates, double the size of the losses,” said the thinktank.

Jagjit Chadha, director of the NIESR, said: “In the UK, uncertainty about exit from the EU seems to be limiting the development of policies to promote more inclusive growth.” Brexit, he added, was a demanding agenda that was causing political stasis. “Things are not happening that should be happening.”

..........


The UK is just eight months away from the March 2019 EU exit date and the range of outcomes remains as wide as ever. We are by no means sure that there will be a deal by then, and even if there is a deal it is not clear how policymakers, businesses and households will respond to the new arrangement. And, all along, the chance of a second referendum is rising.”

.......SNIP"

[octoberlib]

1. I wish they'd just do another vote on it. I think Remainers would win.

[applegrove]

2. Yes. Especially since it is looking like the Russians were all over the first Brexit.

[Afromania]

3. When you are at a point where you are talking up having the military on standby to deliver food

you are long past the point of whatever it is being a good idea. They really need to do a revote or even better just have the damn sense to say this is stupid let's just not do it at all.

[applegrove]

4. I think they would have to vote on it as only one referendum vote can undo

another if you are a democracy. If course the remainders would show up en mass this time. And Russia would not be able to mess in the same way.

[Afromania]

6. ah k, I though the parliment folks had bit of say in it and could force a new vote or something.

[applegrove]

10. Yes. I hope they force a new vote. I hope that is the plan.

[regnaD kciN]

5. The best Brexit would be no Brexit at all...

The problem is, ever since they triggered Article 50, the U.K.'s only options have been a negotiated settlement ("soft Brexit" ) or a non-negotiated one ("hard Brexit" )...with the latter the default outcome. The E.U. has shown no interest in any of the softer versions May has proposed (all they've accomplished have been to alienate her from the hardliners in her own party), and, probably, the only deal that would be acceptable to Brussels would be one that would get Teresa tossed in a no-confidence vote and regarded as a traitor by the vast majority of Leave voters. Therefore, the U.K. train is hurtling toward the cliff of a hard Brexit.

"Farage, he stole the handle/and the train, it won't stop going/no way to slow down."

And what if U.K. voters got enough common sense to demand a second referendum, and Remain won that one? Unfortunately, there's no way to walk back Article 50. They either leave the E.U. with a deal or get kicked out of the E.U. without one. The only way Britain could backtrack and stay would be to petition the E.U. to be allowed back in...and that would require a unanimous vote by all remaining E.U. member nations. Any single country could block it, and I could think of several that might (Spain, for one, over Gibraltar). And, even if they didn't block it outright, I'm sure some of the countries would demand terms that would be a "poison pill" (for example, no more special treatment that allowed the U.K. to keep its own currency instead of switching to the Euro) that the U.K. government could never accept and hope to remain in power.

Basically, Britain is screwed. And they did it to themselves.

[applegrove]

7. The russians helped.

[regnaD kciN]

9. Because of course they did...

What else would you expect? Just like they're funding extreme nationalist parties all over the E.U. itself.

[Afromania]

8. Wow, thanks for the run down. I thought there may have been a way back for the UK. What a mess.