What are the 5 most important Senate elections in 2018? (if time permits, why?,more than 5 is OK.)

[Stuart G]

Only if time permits, give reasons. I would like to know what others think ..thank you.

Nevada...a possible pick up for our side. very good chance

Missouri ..Claire McCaskill is a seasoned fighter and has an excellent chance of winning, but Trump took this state by some points and it will be tight. We need to support her as best as possible.

Texas...another possible pick up. Cruz is not liked and a liar. Beneto has an excellent chance..News is that this is far closer than predicted.

North Dakota..Heidi will need all the help we can give just to keep her seat. If she looses, taking over the Senate could be most difficult. (Trump took the state by a number of points)

Florida If Bill Nelson looses against Rick Scott ( Scott is a total asshole) then taking over the Senate could be impossible (if we lose North Dakota and Florida, then forget taking the Senate)

ok, have at it..and... Need to understand this because it could help with potential donations. Thank You for any and all opinions

[Funtatlaguy]

1. Add: Indiana, WVirg, Ariz, Tenn.

[lpbk2713]

2. If Rick Scott wins then I give up on Florida.

Scott is a thief and a liar who got filthy rich on Medicare/Medicaid fraud. The voters of Florida made him governor twice. If they make him senator then they are all beyond hope. GOTV.

[Recursion]

3. Mississippi has 2. We have a decent shot at one of them

The special election to replace Thad "I was the last sane Republican" Cochran is happening.

There's a jungle primary on election day, being contested by:

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), the chamber of commerce Republican (and former Democrat) appointed to replace Cochran
Chris McDaniel (R), an absolutely terrifying nutjob who makes Roy Moore look like Dwight Eisenhower
Mike Espy (D), an African American former Congressman and Agriculture Secretary under Bill Clinton

If none clears 50% (which seems to be a given), the top two vote-getters will face a runoff election 3 weeks later.

If McDaniel outdraws Hyde-Smith (and lots of the Tea Party types are furious that a former Democrat was appointed), Espy is legitimately in a position to stand a chance at beating him. Espy is incredibly popular statewide, has had no scandals or gaffes of note, and (conceivably) could drive African American turnout very high in a state that's over 1/3rd black. As a bonus, next door in Alabama we have a generally popular white politician in Doug Jones, who has just showed that this kind of upset is doable, and will probably spend a lot of time stumping in East Mississippi for Espy.

[catrose]

4. I'll second Texas, replacing Cruz with Beto O'Rourke

Or my cat. Or a dead armadillo. I'm not picky.

I keep hearing that Ted Cruz is unpopular, but somebody elected him. Of course, he was Cambridge Analytical's second biggest customer. That might explain it.

[Stuart G]

5. I love your line..."Or my cat, or a dead armadilo. I am not picky"...Outstanding, thank you!!!

[catrose]

9. Thanks. Beto is much better than either of those choices and most others, I suspect.

[brooklynite]

6. From my model...

Most at risk: FL, ND, IN, MO (however, Koch Brothers are pulling out of ND; may be indicative of something. Of these four, FL is most important because of competitive Governor's race and House pickup opportunities.

Best pickup opportunities: AZ (Sinema ahead of McSally; competitive Gov race); TN (Bredesen ahead of Blackburn) and NV (Rosen slightly behind Heller). TX still a stretch, but may be tightening.

My database: https://www.dropbox.com/s/9efjylfjxt78uoh/2018%20races.xlsx?dl=0

[Stuart G]

7. Thank You for your input and info. (and the link too)

[Roland99]

8. Nelson needs to kick the TV ads in gear. And fast

[Bradshaw3]

10. Arizona is a better chance than Texas

To pick up both would be sweet, sweet.

[eppur_se_muova]

11. He should endorse 45, just to see all the red hats go up in flames. nt