2017-2018 federal special election results as compared to the seat's partisan lean:

[octoberlib]

Link to tweet

2017-2018 federal special election results as compared to the seat's partisan lean:

#CA34 – D+18
#KS04 – D+23
#MTAL – D+16
#GA06 – D+6
#SC05 – D+16
#UT03 – D+3
#ALSen – D+31
#PA18 – D+22
#AZ08 – D+20
#TX27 – D+5
#OH12 – D+13 (est.)

[Awsi Dooger]

1. Can't expect to match that pace when incumbents are involved

Ousting incumbents is an entirely different ball game than a special election. A strategist on CNN tonight has been making that point repeatedly but has been shouted down. However, he is absolutely correct.

That's why it's not a perfect transfer to take the average gap and drop it on every November race. Situational influence is never emphasized enough.

Ideally Trump will drop a point or two in approval rating prior to November, opening up opportunity in a handful of additional races. I don't want to be depending on ousting entrenched incumbents.

[TheRealNorth]

2. Turnout is everything

Republicans are not going to stay home in November. They will come up with something before then to get them fired up.

Turnout Dems + sway independents.

If I were Dem strategisit, I might also consider taking Russians propaganda hits on Dems and tying the Republican candidates to them.