Ohio Special Election Shows a Blue Wave Coming

[babylonsister]

https://politicalwire.com/2018/08/08/ohio-special-election-shows-a-blue-wave-coming/

Ohio Special Election Shows a Blue Wave Coming
August 8, 2018 at 5:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard

Washington Post: “The tight race between Democrat Danny O’Connor and Republican Troy Balderson in a deep-red Ohio House district Tuesday reinforced a trend that has been developing for more than a year: Democrats are routinely beating their 2016 performance by double digits — putting the House and perhaps even the Senate within their grasp in November.”

“In Ohio’s 12th Congressional District, which encompasses the northern suburbs of Columbus and rural expanses to the east, voters preferred President Trump by 11 points and GOP Rep. Patrick Tiberi by 37 points in 2016. But with the race too close to call late Tuesday night, those voters showed a marked shift away from Republicans.”

Micah Cohen: “Ohio 12 looks to have shifted by about 13 points towards Democrats relative to its partisan lean (how we would expect it to vote in a neutral political environment)… That’s just about in line with Democrats’ average overperformance in these elections in the Trump era. Special elections have been a good sign for Democratic midterm hopes for awhile now, and Ohio 12 was no exception (even if Balderson hangs on).“

[SunSeeker]

1. Yep. nt

[Demovictory9]

2. excellent

[LisaL]

3. OH race ain't over yet. More than 8,500 votes remain to be tallied.

[GetRidOfThem]

4. ...and many of those are abstantee ballots

Which means motivated voters, and I suspect may be more democratic...

[LisaL]

5. And provisional. Also favor democrats.

[ananda]

6. fingers, toes, arms, and legs crossed for O'Connor

nt

[Delphinus]

7. Agreed!

This would be so good for the country if O'Connor wins.

[pazzyanne]

9. ...and I'll cross my eyes to help you out!

[honest.abe]

20. I think we need an independent group to watch over those counting these ballots.

[saidsimplesimon]

25. I agree.

The results in Ohio are a credit to the candidate, the Democratic Party and the voters in Ohio. I hope we contest every close election and demand participation in the recount.

I will never forget Diebold in Ohio, and bush vs gore in Florida. Do no surrender to the narrative that the Republican has won until every vote is counted and recounted. imo

[Auggie]

8. ... despite gerrymeandering up the wazoo! Look at this Ohio's 12th district:

[Botany]

15. I'm in that "green finger" that dips into Franklin County/Columbus and if you look @ the area ....

.... to the east that is not in the 12th district you have >100,000 votes much of which would vote solid blue
That "green finger" also stops before Ohio State area too which is starts less 1/2 a mile to the south of
that "green finger."

This current form of the 12th district was put together by A.L.E.C. and the Ohio Repugs in 2011.

This district also cuts off over 1/2 of the city of Mansfield, OH to the west
which would vote blue too.

The district also cuts off the southern part of Westerville along I 270 which would vote blue too.

The way to win it in the fall is push republicans = Russia = treason 24/7 to the rural red voters 24/7.

*******
8,000 provisional and absentee votes that are yet to be counted just might put O'Connor over the top.

[Auggie]

21. I grew up in Ohio ...

it pains me to look at these districts. Repugs would lose if they didn't cheat -- and they know it.

Good luck in the fight. We're watching from California.

[Botany]

26. The most southern tip of that "green finger" was drawn so that Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy's house was ....

.... in the newly drawn almost surely red 12th district. I also noticed that the district was
drawn so as that the area where blacks in live in Mansfield and the city of Marion were
also cut out of the district too.

[FlightRN]

22. I'm on that other tiny finger-like dip

right below Powell. So other side of 270 Dublin-Sawmill Rd area and I’m boycotting my Powell neighbors, I forgot they have million-plus dollar homes and put money before Country.

Praying those absentee ballots are in Danny’s favor. They sent out absentee ballots in my neighborhood literally seven days before the primary, which was confusing. Also, early voting has been going on all summer- which I wasn’t informed of until the week before the actual primary. Some confusion for my parents when those ballots came so close to Election Day.

My father didn’t “trust” them, he thought “the Trumpies” sent them out 😂

[Botany]

29. What we need to do for the fall is show that a vote for the GOP is a vote for Trump/Russia ...

... and push that in the rural red areas. Now 1/2 those people are gone and no facts
or knowledge will change their minds but if treason is proven that might peel away enough
voters to swing the district blue despite how gerrymandered it is.

Fox News and hate talk radio really has poisoned many people's minds.

The provisional and absentee ballots should break to O'Connor too.

[FlightRN]

37. You would think that if treason were proven

this would help to change those minds in Powell and other suburbs in Delaware County where the education is higher. Delaware is such a mixed bag of a County, with a massive income and education disparity throughout it.
One of the “Rather Be A Russian than a Democrat” t-shirt wearing bubbas was from there.
Lots of racism in Delaware County too, the deep-seated generational type. We need to appeal in some way to the “new Powell.” What was once fields and small farms, is now full of housing developments where the houses are McMansions...I don’t know how to make them care about anything other than their insulated little bubbles they exist in. I’d be more than willing to knock on doors over there but I have no idea how to make them care. If everything he’s done and said has not made them scared for the future of their children what can flip them? Open to wisdom or ideas from everyone.

[Botany]

38. Some of "them" are lost for good and we shouldn't spend 1 minute on trying to .....

..... reach out to them. In Columbus in 2012 after the election I was told by a
really nice guy that we should be afraid now that Obama has won a 2nd term that
he was going to import Hamas fighters from the middle east in order to get a third
and take away the people's guns.

In the rural/red areas of the 12th district we need to hammer home the fact that
a republican vote now is a vote for Trump/Russia and that Russia is conducting
a war on America's foundations and our allies right now and in the past too.

BTW in the upper income college educated rich areas in Powell, Westerville, New
Albany, Powell, and New Albany how could any woman vote for R?

[FlightRN]

41. Yes these women are baffling to me

that’s who I’d love to hear from...I really want to know what message he’s spouting that is speaking to them, and now keeping them seemingly as well.

[Botany]

43. Almost every straight woman uses birth control @ sometime their lifetime ,,,,

.... so how could they vote R?

[Trust Buster]

10. Not really. The dem candidate in 2016 received 112,000 votes.

Yesterday, O’Connor received 99,000 votes. Such a poor showing after two years of this crap is very depressing. In Democrats can’t bring themselves to make the effort to vote this fall, then there will be no blue wave.

[LisaL]

12. Why are you ignoring that Republican candidate for congress got over 200,000 votes in 2016?

So republican turnout was way down. If that keeps up there will be a blue wave.

[Trust Buster]

13. I understand your point but I am concerned about participation on our side.

The Republican voter should feel depressed with the last two years. We have a reason to be motivated. Our low voter turnout is more unexplainable IMO.

[Tarc]

14. You're comparing a special election to the fall turnout

Relax.

[mythology]

16. This. Also even more than a regular special election

It's 3 months until the regular election.

[Botany]

19. We had tremendous effort and turn out among D(s) in Columbus for this race

You don't know what you are talking about. O'Connor's narrow loss was the result
of gerrymandering and not a poor showing by the democrats.

[Trust Buster]

30. Numbers don't lie.

[Botany]

32. And neither do facts

3 blocks to the east of where I am sitting right now is @ least >+ 50,000 solid blue votes
and 1/2 a mile to the south of me is another block of blue votes too. To get that close in
such a gerrymandered district and then blame democratic run out is pure b.s..

I like pretty pictures.

[Trust Buster]

33. Yes, they won. We lost.

[IronLionZion]

11. It's time for GOP to panic

and make stupid mistakes

They really need to get more divided over Trump and fight amongst themselves

[workinclasszero]

17. Shitler and his stormtroopers on freakrepublic celebrate winning by the skin of their teeth

in a place that went for the orange Russian asset huge in 2016, fu**ing idiots!

The blue wave will drown those GOP rats in a few months!!

[LiberalFighter]

18. The Republicans were able to focus money and effort in this race than usual

and it was still close. For the general they will have to decide how much effort and money will be expended in this race when they have 434 other house seats and other elections.

[Evergreen Emerald]

28. I hate to keep bringing up the red elephant in the room.

Democrats cannot win if the elections are rigged. No matter how many people head out to vote. No matter how big the blue wave. If the republicans cheat, they will continue to win.

The legislature actually voted against providing funds to protect our elections.

We should all turn out. Be we should not be surprised when we nearly win.

[dalton99a]

23. The day of reckoning is coming

[mcar]

24. K&R!

[saidsimplesimon]

27. The Blue Wave has arrived.

This election is just further proof. We will keep up the pressure and the grassroots will GOTV. Victory is in the winds for Democrats, let's make the most of it whenever we can, wherever we can, every election, in every state.

Balderson and Trump are trying to throw cold water on a recount and the potential of a defeat worse than the small margins reported. imo

[Blue_Tires]

31. It also shows that the emoprog Greens can still fuck us with no lube

[MineralMan]

34. It sure shows the potential for a Blue Wave.

However, it's up to Democrats in every state and district to actually make it happen. This is no time to relax.

[Dopers_Greed]

35. Even though it's a red district, a loss is a loss

Congressional elections are heavily rigged to favor the GOP. We need some major upsets. Narrowly losing is not good enough with American democracy on life support.

If we don't take the House and Senate back, this may be the last "free" election.

[Iliyah]

36. I'm one that do not trust Ohio's Republicans . . .

Nor any Republicans. They steal and cheat. Here's hoping that O'Connor pulls it out.

[Brother Buzz]

39. Ninety days, Baby!

and we'll be reading all the glorious headlines.

[Hortensis]

40. Republicans did everything but send National Guard troops

to haul conservatives to the polls. This and other races does provide them with a template for possible wins, but the money poured into saving this district is enormous.

AND, in this case, they have to do it all over again in November. Trump had better not make 1% of these voters upset between now and then.

[malaise]

42. I hope O'Conner is the winner

Just to laugh at the ReTHUG fools.