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tgards79

(1,415 posts) Mon Aug 20, 2018, 07:42 PM Aug 2018

BTRTN Senate and House Mid-Term Snapshot: Still a Split Decision

BTRTN’s latest on the race for control of Congress, complete with the odds of a Dem takeover of the House, and of the Senate:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/08/btrtn-senate-house-mid-term-snapshot.html

5 replies

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BTRTN Senate and House Mid-Term Snapshot: Still a Split Decision (Original Post) tgards79 Aug 2018 OP

House looks good, but the chance of Senate is practically zero. One step at a time, I suppose. Hoyt Aug 2018 #1

Either way, we can block any legislation... JCMach1 Aug 2018 #2

And subpoena... NYC Liberal Aug 2018 #3

Agree. And send a message to trump and offer good legislation that the Senate or Hoyt Aug 2018 #5

Today wasn't a great day Awsi Dooger Aug 2018 #4

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)

1. House looks good, but the chance of Senate is practically zero. One step at a time, I suppose.

Reply to tgards79 (Original post)

Mon Aug 20, 2018, 09:42 PM

Aug 2018

Maybe the trifecta in 2020.

JCMach1

(27,556 posts)

2. Either way, we can block any legislation...

Reply to Hoyt (Reply #1)

Mon Aug 20, 2018, 11:17 PM

Aug 2018

NYC Liberal

(20,135 posts)

3. And subpoena...

Reply to JCMach1 (Reply #2)

Mon Aug 20, 2018, 11:26 PM

Aug 2018

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)

5. Agree. And send a message to trump and offer good legislation that the Senate or

Reply to JCMach1 (Reply #2)

Tue Aug 21, 2018, 12:56 AM

Aug 2018

trump would have to vote against. That’s huge.

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

4. Today wasn't a great day

Reply to tgards79 (Original post)

Mon Aug 20, 2018, 11:32 PM

Aug 2018

Nate Silver's model dropped nearly two full percent, from 75.3% likelihood of regaining the House to 73.5%, and the average number of seats gained fell for the first time, from 35 to 34.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

IMO, the 75% was too high to begin with. Predictwise is currently at 64% after 63% a few weeks ago and briefly at 65% earlier today. I suspect all models will move closer to agreement as November nears:

https://predictwise.com/politics/2018-congress-house

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