Gulf of Mexico DUers - please pay attention- update now Tropical Storm Gordon

[malaise]

Last edited Mon Sep 3, 2018, 09:47 AM - Edit history (1)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters, including the Straits
of Florida, are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an
upper-level trough. This weather system is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so and little,
if any, development is expected during that time due to strong
upper-level winds. However, the current unfavorable upper-level
wind pattern is expected to gradually change and become more
conducive for a tropical depression to form over the eastern and
central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. This disturbance
will spread locally heavy rains across much of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Keys during the next day or two. See products from
your local weather forecast office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Leith]

1. There Are 2 to Watch

My favorite site to look at what's coming:

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=10.7;-39.2;4&l=wind-900hpa

It's interesting (to me, anyway) to adjust for wind speed at various heights, air pressure, precipitation, and just about anything else you might want to know about conditions.

There are disturbances in the Caribbean and making landfall in TX, and another that looks like a forming hurricane just west of NW Africa.

[malaise]

2. I love that website

Florence is out and this one there, but another one just rolled off the big continent

Could be trouble for us at the end of the week

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

[Gothmog]

3. We will be keeping an eye on the weather

Link to tweet

[malaise]

4. Florence looks like a fish storm, Bermuda or across the pond

The one approaching the GOM may not have time to strengthen. My worry is the one just rolling off the big continent.
That is heading this way just in time for the climax of peak season

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-09-02-tropical-storm-hurricane-florence-atlantic-ocean
Florence

[Gothmog]

9. Right now Gordon may dump some rain on Houston

Last edited Tue Sep 4, 2018, 02:31 PM - Edit history (1)

the American model has the storm headed north after making landfall and the European model shows the storm headed to East Texas which will generate a ton of rain for Houston.

[malaise]

10. What we don't want is any slowing down or strengthening beyond Cat1

Neither is forecast. This is not the one to worry about .

[Gothmog]

11. Even a tropical storm can cause a great deal of flooding if it stays in place

[malaise]

12. If it slows down or literally stops it can be worse

than a hurricane. Water kills

[malaise]

5. From Jeff Masters

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/91L-Likely-Become-Gulf-Mexico-Tropical-Cyclone-Tuesday

[Uncle Joe]

6. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread malaise.

[malaise]

7. This should be a Tropical Storm

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/234741.shtml?cone#contents

[malaise]

8. Now Tropical Storm Gordon

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/092142.shtml?cone#contents



Tropical Storm Gordon Special Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
830 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORMS OVER THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH HEAVY RAINS LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 830 AM EDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 80.7W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of South
Florida from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, and for the Florida
Keys from Craig Key to Ocean Reef, in

[ornotna]

13. Florence is going to be the scary one

I think she's going to get big. Really big.

[malaise]

14. Not sure - early days

The experts think that Bermuda and across the pond as in UK are most likely, but it's to early to know for sure.

The one behind is the one I'm watching.

[ornotna]

15. Not too worried about it Me

But I do think wherever it goes it's going to suck. There's a lot of warm water for it to travel over and time to grow.

[malaise]

16. Yep - late this week or

next week will be bad for folks somewhere