Let's say Pence and half the Cabinet invokes the 25th...

[NightWatcher]

As far as I know, the 25th was written to secure Executive power in the event that something happened that left the President incapacitated but did not reach the level of initiating the formal line of succession in the event of death or removal. GHWB took temporary control from Reagan when he was shot and was in the hospital in surgery and initial recovery and that Ronnie resumed control when he was able.

How would they initiate the 25th, assuming trump is still conscious and seated at his desk? He won't go willingly. He'll call Hannity and start screaming to his base that he's being violently removed.

Would Secret Service have to drag him away?

Either way, if this Steady State talk gets factions within the Cabinet plotting a takeover, it's not going to end smoothly. It's going to start a war on the right between the fox base and never trumpers within the administration.

If this doesn't blow over quickly it could easily erupt into a Constitutional crisis that we had not expected.

Damn I miss No Drama Obama.

[drray23]

1. You do know that it does not work that way ?

Even if pence and half the cabinet vote on it, Trump can contest it. He would stay president until both house and Senate ratify it by 2/3 majority in both chambers. In short, it wont happen. It would be easier to impeach and convict.

[NightWatcher]

2. Thank you for clarification

I did not know to what extent he could contest it and have it come to a vote. I'm at work and have been going on bits and pieces along with the hair on fire commentators on tv.

How messy would that fight be if they tried and he contested it? We can just sit back and watch the gop devour itself.

Popcorn stocks are on the rise.

[drray23]

3. Oh I do agree it would be a gigantic mess.

For starters, Trump would probably fire the entire cabinet.
I wonder how Ryan and McConnel would manage to ignore that.. or what Rudy would say on TV 😁

[superpatriotman]

4. I've got a sick feeling about how this ends

Sixty days are enough to destroy the republic.

This person is unfit for service and will not go quietly or peacefully.

[MiniMe]

5. Watch Lawrence now

He is going over it

[Calista241]

6. The 25th amendment is designed for a President that is incapacitated or otherwise unable to serve.

Trump could end the 25th amendment solution by notifying the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists.

[mountain grammy]

7. Secret service dragging him away sounds good to me.

[Massacure]

8. All Pence has to do is deliver a letter signed by half the cabinet to Paul Ryan and Orin Hatch

Pence would deliver a letter to the Speaker of the House (Paul Ryan) and Senate President Pro Tempore (Orin Hatch) stating that Trump is unable to execute the duties of president. At that point, Pence would be acting as President.

Trump could then deliver a letter to the Speaker and President Pro Tempore that he is capable of acting as president. Trump would then resume control.

Pence then has a four day long window to retake the Pesidential powers from Trump (as long as 1/2 of the cabinet agrees). If Pence retakes the presidential powers, Congress has to meet within two days (if in session) or 21 days (if not in session) to decide the issue.

This is where things would get interesting, but my reading of the 25th amendment is that Pence keeps presidential power until one of three things happen:
1) The House votes and less than 2/3 of the Representatives vote to keep Pence in power
2) The Senate votes and less than 2/3 of the Senators vote to keep Pence in power.
3) Two (or 21) days pass and either the House or Senate has not acted.

The other interesting scenario I envision is what would happen if Trump were to fire cabinet members before Pence sends the second letter to Congress.

[bullimiami]

11. It seems impeachment is a far easier bar to jump than A25.

Impeach. House Majority. Senate 2/3.

25th. VP and majority of Cabinet. House 2/3. Senate 2/3.

[LiberalLovinLug]

9. Pence? lol He's the biggest coward and sycophant in Trump's cabinet.

You have to understand the fundie mindset as well. Once they've sold out, gone over to dark side they cannot go back. Its already going out on a limb to fall into the line of the evangelicals 'logic' that they have convinced themselves of: that God is using a broken vessel to do God's will, for instance appointing anti-abortion judges. They cannot ever admit that they were wrong, that they have been duped by Satan.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

10. The first question is whether we will remain a constitutional republic

I think many Republicans envision installing the party much in the same manner as the PRI once was in Mexico - something that creates the appearance of democracy, but is essentially an oligarchy with new leaders at the top every eight years.

But let's assume the best for a moment.

Impeachment only becomes a possibility if the Republicans see Trump as far more of a liability than an asset. He's off the rails, but (from their standpoint) he's getting shit done: he's reshaping the court; he's cut corporate taxes; he is punishing Hispanic immigrants; rolled back the EPA regulations; gotten out of the Iran deal; put the Cuba deal on hold; gotten firmly behind a Middle East peace deal that sets Israel up as the clear winner and the Palestinians up as the clear loser; and he continues to do nothing to interfere with gun ownership. They are on the cusp of rolling back most of the Warren Court decisions. They may have liked George W. Bush a whole lot more as a person, but he failed to even scratch the surface of the to-do list. But then come the mid-terms, and they know they are likely to lose the House, and they know that Trump will play brinkmanship with shutdowns, and they know Republicans will get the blame for that.

If they lose the House, he next thought turns to 2020. Two years is an eternity in American politics, and history teaches that Pence could conceivably take office; pardon the Trumpsters, and still have a fighting chance of winning reelection. They desperately want to hold the White House and the Senate to replace RBG and Breyer. So one scenario is that the general sense that he is off the rails (brought about by Fear as well as the NYT leak) carries forward past November. Let's further assume things don't get better on the Muller front, and possibly he starts a purge after the midterms. At that point, the Lame Duck GOP led House may surprise everyone and make a quick move for impeachment. They can dream up one of a hundred high crimes or misdemeanors. The Dems, who will smell the rat, will still willingly go along - and not too many Republicans will have to sign on for this to work. Then on to the Senate. At this point, Mitch will present the deal to Don Sr. - resign and Pence will pardon you & your kids fully and unconditionally, or we will try you in the Senate; throw your ass out; and feed you to the Grand Jury. The Kochs and the Ricketts will sign off on that, and Mike Pence will be hailed as the savior of American democracy - which he will continue to erode, but in a more civilized manner and with less use of Twitter.