Just as a reminder - Romney will probably get a 'bump' in the polls

[LynneSin]

It'll start now and probably last until right before the Democratic Convention.

At that time we'll take the election home.

[gollygee]

1. Having the focus on anyone other than Romney will help for a bit

People will be focused on Ryan for a while.

[morningfog]

2. Good reminder. Good thing is that mitt was pulled down hard this past month.

The bump will be slight and short-lived.

[LynneSin]

3. Our convention starts the beginning of September - so I give is about 3 weeks

and the bump would really just put Romney as a tie with Obama, not ahead.

[morningfog]

5. This power point from ROmney's campaign is hilarious:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/10/romney-campaign-vp-pick-bump_n_1764831.html?utm_hp_ref=elections-2012

They average polling bumps from 1976-2004 and find that post-convention, the challenger gets an 11 point bump, while the incumbent gets a 7 point bump. What is so funny is that they rely on the averages to raise their expectations. Also funny is that they don't consider that both parties have conventions and the incumbent always goes last. Using their numbers, the average bump is actually 4 points.

[bigtree]

6. +1

[Dawgs]

4. I'm not sure that will happen this time.

The Ryan budget and his desire to destroy everything that doesn't benefit the rich is already easy to document.

http://truth-out.org/news/item/10837-twelve-things-you-should-know-about-vice-presidential-candidate-paul-ryan

And, as VP surprise picks go, Ryan is no Palin.

Ryan is ALSO a member of a very unpopular Congress.

[Brother Buzz]

15. There will definitely be a dead cat bounce

But it will be small and sort lived. The bounce will simple check Romney' s backwards slid in the polls.

[lamp_shade]

7. I think you're right. I'm not concerned.

[Motown_Johnny]

8. They always do, nothing between now and the debates really matters.

as far as polls go that is

[Courtesy Flush]

9. Remember Palin

She really boosted the poll numbers for a while. Just keep that in mind.

[LynneSin]

10. Then they allowed the press to interview her

Mccain was doomed

[Courtesy Flush]

12. I think it will be different this time

I don't know much about Ryan, but I see Romney as the Palin character this time. They can't win on the popularity of the VP alone.

[LynneSin]

13. This time Biden won't have to hold back in the debates

Joe Biden is one of the best debaters in DC. You can give him any topic and he can masterfully debate either side of the issue.

He held back against Palin because he knew she was not a knowledgable candidate and he didn't want to come across as a bully. Palin was all about the memorized soundbites to please the supporters and Biden was masterful but low key. I booked my non refundable hotel room in DC the next day ( for the jan inauguration)

[The Magistrate]

11. Not This Time, Ma'am: This One Is Priced Into the Market Already, And Will Not Move Much

The choice will raise up as many against it as will rally to it.

"Romney loves America like a tick loves a dog."

[uponit7771]

14. that and there are only a few independents

[Fozzledick]

18. I think you're being a bit myopic here, sir.

The announcement of Ryan's selection will likely have little if any effect on the current polls, but the publicity and hoopla surrounding the convention will inevitably produce a noticeable bump despite the shoddy quality of the goods on display.

Fortunately the effect will be transitory and washed out by the Democratic convention the following week, but I think it's unrealistic not to anticipate it.

[The Magistrate]

19. We Are Not Discussing Convention Bumps, Sir

And our convention comes second, and will swamp anything these people manage for themselves.

"Romney loves America like a tick loves a dog."

[Denninmi]

16. If they're smart about this, and I believe they are, Team Obama

already has Paul Ryan's destruction as a viable candidate mapped out, and they just need to push the play button.

[Coyotl]

17. Just as a reminder - Romney really, really needed a 'bump' in the polls

They don't make bumps that big