Yes, Democrats do have a legitimate path to win back the Senate

[steve2470]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/yes-democrats-do-have-legitimate-path-win-back-senate-n907446

WASHINGTON — The takeaway from the trio of NBC/Marist polls we released this week is that, yes, Democrats do have a legitimate path to retaking the Senate in November. Given the Senate map, it’s probably not the most likely outcome. But it’s a real possibility — more than most people might think.

With the GOP controlling the Senate by a slim 51-to-49 margin — after the Dems’ surprising win in Alabama late last year — Democrats must gain a net of two Senate seats to take back the chamber (since Vice President Mike Pence can break a 50-50 tie). And their path to gaining those two Senate seats is: 1) by winning the GOP-held seats of Arizona and Nevada and holding on to ALL of their vulnerable seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and West Virginia, or 2) by winning Arizona, Nevada AND Tennessee, and losing just one of their vulnerable states. (FYI: If Democrats somehow win Texas, they’re definitely winning the Senate.)

So what do our NBC/Marist polls show? Well, Democrats lead in Indiana and Tennessee (although within the margin of error), while it’s tied in Missouri.



Here’s another way to look at the battle for Senate control: The Cook Political Report identifies eight total toss-up races — five held by Democrats (Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and West Virginia) and three held by Republicans (Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee). To win control, Democrats will need to win seven of these eight toss-up races.

[Andy823]

1. I sure hope so

It is going to be all about getting the voters out on Election Day. I was glad to see president Obama speaking out today, and look forward to more of him on the campaign trail this year helping Democrats win.