North Carolina didn't like science on sea levels ... so passed a law against it

[turbinetree]

In 2012, the state whose low-lying coast lies in the path of Hurricane Florence reacted to a prediction of catastrophically rising seas by banning policies based on such forecasts

When North Carolina got bad news about what its coast could look like thanks to climate change, it chose to ignore it.

In 2012, the state now in the path of Hurricane Florence reacted to a prediction by its Coastal Resources Commission that sea levels could rise by 39in over the next century by passing a law that banned policies based on such forecasts.

The legislation drew ridicule, including a mocking segment by comedian Stephen Colbert, who said: “If your science gives you a result you don’t like, pass a law saying the result is illegal. Problem solved.”

North Carolina has a long, low-lying coastline and is considered one of the US areas most vulnerable to rising sea levels.

But dire predictions alarmed coastal developers and their allies, who said they did not believe the rise in sea level would be as bad as the worst models predicted and said such forecasts could unnecessarily hurt property values and drive up insurance costs.

As a result, the state’s official policy, rather than adapting to the worst potential effects of climate change, has been to assume it simply won’t be that bad. Instead of forecasts, it has mandated predictions based on historical data on sea level rise.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/12/north-carolina-didnt-like-science-on-sea-levels-so-passed-a-law-against-it


-snip-
“The science panel used one model, the most extreme in the world,” Pat McElraft, the sponsor of the 2012 bill, said at the time, according to Reuters. “They need to use some science that we can all trust when we start making laws in North Carolina that affect property values on the coast.”


So Pat , may I call you Pat,....................what do you think the property values will be now..................


-snip-

But Orrin Pilkey, a retired Duke University coastal geologist, wrote in a recent op-ed in the News & Observer that the state has still failed to take the steps that communities in Virginia and New Jersey have taken, to prepare for rising sea levels.

“Instead coastal development flourishes as more beachfront buildings, highways and bridges are built to ease access to our beautiful beaches,” he wrote. “Currently the unspoken plan is to wait until the situation is catastrophic and then respond.”

[spanone]

1. American Dream?----it's all about profiteering.

[marylandblue]

2. Didn't a Medieval King try to hold back the sea?

As I recall, it didn't work and his feet got wet.

[DavidDvorkin]

5. No, he was demonstrating to his fawning courtiers that he COULDN'T hold back the sea.

[marylandblue]

8. Maybe he has some descendants who could run for the NC legislature?

[DavidDvorkin]

14. He has descendants all over Great Britain

so it's very likely that he also has some in NC.

[leftynyc]

3. I thought this HAD to be a joke

The Onion, perhaps. But Holy Crap - this is true AND insane.

[NCjack]

32. The joke is on those who bought coast property. Smart realtors steered

their willing-2B-informed buyers away from the coast.

[CottonBear]

4. Well, SCIENCE, CLIMATE & WEATHER are about to kick f...king GOP ass in NC! N/T

[Proud Liberal Dem]

6. Maybe those politicians

Should stand up to the weather and tell it that they don't believe in it?


We can ignore reality but reality won't ignore us.

[TheBlackAdder]

7. So, re-insurance companies will take a hit and then pass those losses onto all Americans.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

9. I didn't have to read the post to know who authored this report.

Orrin Pilkey

His brother Walter taught in the Engineering School at the University of Virginia. I didn't notice any mention of Walter in Orrin's Wikipedia article, but there's a brief Wikipedia article for Walter too.

Walter Pilkey

Walter Pilkey (1936–2007) was a professor of mechanical engineering at University of Virginia. He earned his PhD from Penn State. His areas of professional interest included crash safety, shock and computational mechanics. He has written or co-authored more than 30 books and 300 articles in professional publications. He founded Shock and Vibration, a journal published in association with SAVIAC and the limited distribution journal Critical Technology in Shock and Vibration, also in association with SAVIAC. He was the editor-in-chief of the International Journal of Finite Elements in Analysis and Design.

Professor Pilkey was a Fellow of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers.

Engineering Professors Kenneth R. Lawless and Walter D. Pilkey Leave Lasting Legacies

September 07, 2007 Josie Pipkin, [e-mail]
....

Pilkey earned his Ph.D. from Pennsylvania State University and was engaged in engineering programs in Korea, Taiwan, China, Turkey, India, Russia, Afghanistan and Germany before arriving at U.Va.'s Engineering School in 1969. He was scheduled to retire in May 2008.

Pilkey was editor-in-chief of five engineering journals, several of which he initiated. He edited or authored 30 books and published hundreds of professional papers. His research areas included structural mechanics and shock and vibration system optimization. The latter area led to studies related to crash safety for cars, planes and trains, and studies of airbags, helmets and seats to mitigate injuries.

An avid mountain climber, skier, hiker, swimmer and runner, Pilkey found enjoyment in the everyday. “When he found out he was sick, he just continued his routine of meeting with students, publishing papers, writing books and spending time with family and friends,” Crandall said. "Most of us can envision any number of changes we would make in our lives if we knew our time was limited. In comparison, Walt didn’t see the need to change a thing. He already had his perfect life."
....

Many years ago, Orrin pointed out that it was a huge waste of time to replenish beaches, and that the sea would come along and undo all the work that the Army Corps of Engineers had just done. You can guess how popular that idea was.

Orrin H. Pilkey

Orrin H. Pilkey (born September 19, 1934) is Professor Emeritus of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, at Duke University, and Founder and Director Emeritus of the Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines (PSDS) which is currently based at Western Carolina University.

Life and career

Pilkey received his B.S. degree in geology at Washington State College, his M.S. degree in geology at the University of Montana and his Ph.D. degree in geology at Florida State University. Between 1962 and 1965, he was a research professor at the University of Georgia Marine Institute on Sapelo Island. He has been at Duke University since 1965, with one year breaks with the Department of Marine Science at the University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez, and with the U.S. Geological Survey in Woods Hole, Massachusetts.

Pilkey began his career with the study of abyssal plains on the deep sea floor. As a result of the destruction of his parents' house in Waveland, Mississippi in Hurricane Camille (1969), he switched to the study of coasts. Pilkey's research centers on both basic and applied coastal geology, focusing primarily on barrier island coasts and the effects of shoreline stabilization and development, and sea-level rise. The PSDS has analyzed the numerical models used by coastal geologists and engineers to predict the movement of beach sand, especially in beach replenishment. In general, Pilkey argues that mathematical models cannot be used to accurately predict the behavior of beaches, although they can be useful if directional or orders-of-magnitude answers are sought. In the book, Useless Arithmetic, written with his daughter, Linda Pilkey-Jarvis, they argue that the outcome of natural processes in general cannot be accurately predicted by mathematical models. The Rising Sea, written with Rob Young, current director of PSDS, focuses on the global threat from sea level rise. The Last Beach sounds the alarm that recreation on many of the world's beaches is going to be a thing of the past. It explains that "the future of the world's beaches hangs in the balance, from big threats such as engineering, mining, and pollution, to activities that seem harmless, like driving on beaches." In many places, pollution is in the beach sand as well as in the water. Retreat from a Rising Sea, written with daughter, Linda, and son, Keith, highlights the need for moving back from the coast, a process that is already beginning in some parts of the world, such as Arctic barrier islands, atolls, and river deltas. The authors think that New Orleans and Miami, among other cities, are doomed. His most recent book, Lessons from the Sand, offers easy experiments for kids (and adults)to do while learning about beach processes. Orrin co-wrote this colorful book which is completely illustrated by his son and co-author, Charles Pilkey, an artist/sculptor.

[turbinetree]

11. Wado------------Thank you

[Johnny2X2X]

10. Awful

People are about to lose their homes and lives, most of it would have happened regardless, but perhaps some could have been saved if the North Carolina legislature hadn't stopped people from doing anything to help.

[Zambero]

12. Potential new geographic place names for North Carolina

Here are some possibilities for the NC legislature to consider, in line with current climate change policy:

The Former Banks
The Inner Banks
Denial Shores
Seawall Estates
West Carolina
No Carolina
Charlotte by the Sea

The best part is that countless real estate tracts within this area will be completely tax free!

[Achilleaze]

30. Moonrise over Chattanooga Bay is sure to be memorable

[SWBTATTReg]

13. Think of all of the lawsuits that will hit the state(s) that ignored this problem...

When homes get washed away, when developers claimed that such things wouldn't happen, they deserve a big chunk of the blame. Those who built in these areas too, thinking that they would be okay also deserve a portion of the blame.

I'm surprised that the banks and others lending money for these properties allowed it, and insurance companies insured such properties. This is just going to be a big mess.

Stay safe everyone...

[Auggie]

15. Vulnerable coastline, stripped FEMA budget, Category 4 hurricane -- the perfect storm.

[world wide wally]

16. Why do I get the feeing this law isn't going to work out well?

[CottonBear]

18. "It's not nice to fool Mother Nature." (margarine tv commercial from the 70s! LOL!) n/t

[ancianita]

17. Disaster Capitalist model: penny pinch on the ounce of prevention, then pound foolish on the cure.

[B Stieg]

19. And things are definitely about to get catastrophic! (nt)

REGISTER and VOTE!

[neohippie]

20. Our brilliant GOP legislature also passed other stupid laws

They passed a law making it illegal to disclose fluids used in fracking too

https://www.wral.com/house-approves-fast-track-fracking-bill/13682552/


This state has their heads in the sand and will soon drown in their ridiculous legislation

[turbinetree]

22. And not to be snide...............

but, just think of all the flooding where those fracking ponds are and all of filth being retained, and after the flooding all of the pipes being exposed...............and then to top that off all of the sludge ponds from the coal industry, in the entire area.......................

[neohippie]

27. Oh yes

There's already been lots of issues with Duke energy coal ash spills too

And then there's the hog farm waste pits too

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-10/add-potential-coal-ash-spills-to-hurricane-florence-s-threats

[turbinetree]

29. Wado------------Thank you....................good luck...................

[Stainless]

21. Nature is the Ultimate Arbiter

Republican attempts to regulate nature through legislation is criminally pathetic.

[Stuart G]

23. Let's see how that works out in the next few days..Pat McElraft. But you too are quite "stupid"

You know more than the "Science Panel" Congratulations repeat: Mr. McElraft you are a stupid..asshole...

[octoberlib]

24. That is the year hardline Repub whackjobs gained a majority in the legislature.

They're gonna get people killed on the coast and outer islands.

[Marcuse]

25. The traditional punishments for scientists are, for the moment, considered cruel and unusual.

[Achilleaze]

26. Why do republicans always piss on truth and facts?

Don't they see how their determined ignorance causes them Great Grief that they could otherwise avert.

Truth and facts are good. Willful ignorance is, when you come right down to it, bad.

[Iggo]

31. $$$

[Volaris]

28. The models are predicting 13 FEET of storm surge.

What's THAT gonna do to the plans for the developers, HRMMMMM?

smdh

Im not sayin they asked for it the same way 'Im not sayin it was aliens...',

But you know the rest.

[dem4decades]

33. Can they quickly pass a law denying hurricanes?

[Duppers]

34. K & R