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DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts) Wed Sep 12, 2018, 09:38 AM Sep 2018

22

Shocker from Paul Ryan's WI district Bryce (Democrat ) 48% Stell (Republican) 43% *

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-wi01-1.html

*headline doesn't match text, went with headline from 538.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

17 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

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** Shocker from Paul Ryan's WI district** Bryce (Democrat ) 48% Stell (Republican) 43% * (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2018 OP

Nice NewJeffCT Sep 2018 #1

Love to see this, but it's only polled 200 people. bearsfootball516 Sep 2018 #2

That poll is not done. RandySF Sep 2018 #3

There are two sets of numbers. They are only polling 400-500 per district DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2018 #6

"It's still too early to draw many conclusions from our poll." RandySF Sep 2018 #8

Then where is Nate getting his numbers ? DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2018 #9

From an incomplete poll a poll conducted in July. RandySF Sep 2018 #10

Then why did Nate put 9/11 on the poll ? DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2018 #11

Because Siena started last night. RandySF Sep 2018 #12

But you just said it's "from an incomplete poll a poll conducted in July." DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2018 #13

I think we're looking at two different pages RandySF Sep 2018 #14

I'm thoroughly confused now. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2018 #15

Sorry but on 538.com the #s are reversed. What am I missing here? CurtEastPoint Sep 2018 #4

That's a projection DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2018 #5

Thanks! I see now. CurtEastPoint Sep 2018 #7

House control odds still accelerating...to 81.8%... it was barely over 50 just weeks ago! Fred Sanders Sep 2018 #16

Time for a change of leadership. One that isn't based solely on Russian support perhaps? ffr Sep 2018 #17

NewJeffCT

(56,828 posts)

1. Nice

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 09:42 AM

Sep 2018

Hope the Iron Stache can win this one - would be a nice middle finger to Ryan as he departs, especially if Dems take over the House.

bearsfootball516

(6,377 posts)

2. Love to see this, but it's only polled 200 people.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 09:44 AM

Sep 2018

Not even close to enough to be a decent sample, even the link says it in bold type when you click on it.

RandySF

(58,805 posts)

3. That poll is not done.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 09:49 AM

Sep 2018

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

6. There are two sets of numbers. They are only polling 400-500 per district

Reply to RandySF (Reply #3)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 09:54 AM

Sep 2018

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

RandySF

(58,805 posts)

8. "It's still too early to draw many conclusions from our poll."

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #6)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 10:01 AM

Sep 2018

They only have 200 respondents so far.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-wi01-1.html

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

9. Then where is Nate getting his numbers ?

Reply to RandySF (Reply #8)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 10:02 AM

Sep 2018

He has two sets

RandySF

(58,805 posts)

10. From an incomplete poll a poll conducted in July.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #9)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 10:07 AM

Sep 2018

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

11. Then why did Nate put 9/11 on the poll ?

Reply to RandySF (Reply #10)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 10:11 AM

Sep 2018

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

RandySF

(58,805 posts)

12. Because Siena started last night.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #11)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 10:13 AM

Sep 2018

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

13. But you just said it's "from an incomplete poll a poll conducted in July."

Reply to RandySF (Reply #12)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 10:18 AM

Sep 2018

RandySF

(58,805 posts)

14. I think we're looking at two different pages

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #13)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 10:48 AM

Sep 2018

Siena started polling yesterday and quit for the night at 200 respondents. On the list you refer to is on poll with two different models (likely and registered). I was looking at 538’s district profile which has the impomplete Siena poll and a poll from July.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

15. I'm thoroughly confused now.

Reply to RandySF (Reply #14)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 10:50 AM

Sep 2018

I'll 1et the readers figure it out.

CurtEastPoint

(18,643 posts)

4. Sorry but on 538.com the #s are reversed. What am I missing here?

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 09:49 AM

Sep 2018

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/wisconsin/1/

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

5. That's a projection

Reply to CurtEastPoint (Reply #4)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 09:53 AM

Sep 2018

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

SCROLL DOWN

CurtEastPoint

(18,643 posts)

7. Thanks! I see now.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #5)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 09:54 AM

Sep 2018

Fred Sanders

(23,946 posts)

16. House control odds still accelerating...to 81.8%... it was barely over 50 just weeks ago!

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 11:12 AM

Sep 2018

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

ffr

(22,669 posts)

17. Time for a change of leadership. One that isn't based solely on Russian support perhaps?

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 12:22 PM

Sep 2018

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