Poll: Midwest Abandons Trump, Fueling Democratic Advantage For Control Of Congress

[DemocratSinceBirth]

In a troubling sign for Republicans less than two months before November's elections, Democrats' advantage on the question of which party Americans are more likely to vote for in November is ballooning, according to a new NPR/Marist poll.

The gap has widened to 12 percentage points, up from 7 in July — and largely because of voters in the Midwest. They have swung 13 points in Democrats' direction since July. That Midwestern shift is consistent with what Marist has found in statewide polls conducted for NBC in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota that showed Trump's support there starting to erode.

"Every way we are looking at the data, the same general pattern is emerging," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. "The Midwest is an area that is getting restless about what they hoped was going to occur and what they feel is not occurring."

Trump has waged trade wars with several countries, aiming to renegotiate deals and has instituted tariffs on imports that have been met with retaliatory tariffs on exports. Many of those have taken a toll on Midwestern farmers, for example. And some automakers have come out against Trump's moves on car imports, hitting Trump with some tough headlines.

https://www.npr.org/2018/09/12/646816285/poll-midwest-abandons-trump-fueling-democratic-advantage-for-control-of-congress

[duforsure]

1. The South is starting to run from him also

After he called southerns dumb numerous times, and they see that trumps been lying and gave the super wealthy huge tax windfalls from robbing the rest of us of health care and now they are wanting to destroy Social Security , and another round of tax givaways to them selves again knowing their time will be short lived now anyway. Women and minorities are also running away in huge numbers , especially if kavanuagh is voted onto the court. And people everywhere can see kavanaugh is a liar and corrupt, and a fraud, and will only destroy the rule of law and justice in this country to protect putin and trump over the system of justice we have. Every day trump tweets or talks their chances holding onto the Senate will disappear. Every day they're exposed more the chances go way down for them also. All their corruption and election fixing , and helping a murderous corrupt criminal Putin by protecting him is backfiring on them badly.

[Wounded Bear]

2. Not really surprised...

The "Trump" efffect is vastly overrated.
I posted this in thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211125345

Especially in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Those states were "won" on razor thin margins. The main problem for Dems were those who stayed home and those who voted 3d party. Remember, almost always when Repubs win there are historic low turnout numbers. The other big problems, of course, were jerrymandering and voter suppression.

But people are getting the message. Penn fell to a court order and has been redistricted. There are several other states where that could happen.

Looking at the races over the last year or so, special and primaries, Dems are seeing about a 10-15% bump over the 2016 margins.

There's a lot to work for, but we have a ton of good Dem candidates of very diverse backgrounds and messages.

All politics is local, and there is only so much that can be attained through dumping tons of national dollars on a Congressional race.

I still feel good about our chances.

[ROB-ROX]

3. REMEMBER THE 2016 ELECTION???

The GOP was down in all the percentage points released. They still won the election. They know how to affect an election so they can win and they have the money to buy an election. All the good news about positive percentage points reminds me of 2016. I do not know how they will do it, but I see BIG money winning even though the NUMBERS indicate differently............

[Scurrilous]

4. K&R