A testable theory about the FBI investigation of Kavanaugh that Feinstein has prompted.

[byronius]

From DailyKos:

Again, given the Republican’s complete disregard for due diligence or normal procedure and their curious dedication to doing this as fast as possible, it doesn’t make sense McConnell was worried about Kavanaugh’s writings. His positions are well known. Besides, look at how much impact his perjury has had on the process. No need to look, it hasn’t had any impact. That’s why I now think the paper trail McConnell was concerned about was not judicial or even legal. To be really damaging it would have to be something that could sink the nomination of a conservative, pro-life, Catholic Republican intent on overturning Roe v. Wade.

Sending something to the FBI regarding something that happened in the early 1980s is odd. Most every crime you can think of, short of murder, is going to be outside any statute of limitations that justifies a federal investigation.

However, a recent crime involving the structuring of financial transactions to avoid bank reporting regulations is a federal crime. We have seen this before. That is what Denny Hastert went to prison for.

Under federal law, whenever someone deposits or withdraws $10,000 or more from a bank account, the bank has to report the transaction to the government. This is a tool the government developed to help investigators track large criminal enterprises — say, drug rings or groups supporting terrorists — by being able to tell when people were coming up with mysteriously big amounts of money.

Putting in or taking out $10,000 or more at a time isn't illegal — it just triggers a report to the government. But trying to keep the government from finding out about the transaction, by using multiple deposits or withdrawals of $9,999 or less? That is a crime. That's structuring.

This brings us back to what I think happened here. I think Kavanaugh might have gone into crazy credit card debt so he could avoid triggering bank reporting of a large transaction. Sen. Whitehouse’s pointed questions about gambling may have been prompted by his experience with organized crime and his suspicion that the baseball ticket story was really a cover for structuring. He may have additional information about separate activities that would also require large covert cash payments. Given this latest development, it is reasonable to speculate this might be a payoff to keep something quiet from his high school days.

The fact that this matter was brought by a woman who wants to keep things private suggests this may have been something like an unwanted pregnancy. Whether the child was delivered and Kavanaugh was paying support, or whether the pregnancy was terminated and Kavanaugh wanted to keep that from getting out is completely unknown and speculative. This wouldn’t be the first time something like this has happened — in this administration. (Broidy — I’m looking at you)

Regardless, this brings us back to the FBI. If Kavanaugh, for whatever reason, was structuring payoffs to avoid detection, that would be a recent federal crime and well within the purview of the FBI.

The fact the Republicans are holding up the nomination gives me confidence this is real and they know he could go down in flames. The only reason they would be so skittish is they know this has happened before.

My two cents.

Interesting speculation.

[hlthe2b]

1. good points however, it isn't the R's holding up the nomination. The week delay is the only power

the Dems still had as rules allow any single member to delay that long.

[unblock]

2. the fbi is involved in background checks of anyone subject to a federal confirmation process.

anything that could relate to any item on the background check, any statement he made during the fbi interview, or anything that could be a source of potential blackmail would be within the fbi's perview.

digging into something from high school for a random person kavanaugh's age might be unusual, but it's perfectly reasonable *given that kavanaugh is a nominee for supreme court justice*.


the speculation is all well and good, as far as speculation goes. but there's no particular need for there to be a federal crime here for the fbi to get involved given that he's a nominee for a federal post requiring confirmation.

there *could* be a crime, possible including (or only) lying to the fbi during the background check process.

or there could only be something perfectly legal but that could be a basis for blackmail, which is exactly the sort of thing fbi investigations into nominees are supposed to try to find.

[BigmanPigman]

3. This could be enough for Collins and Murkowski to

use as an excuse to not confirm him. They want to get along with the GOP but the more dirty details about Kavavaugh's lack of character/morals could be a way for them to escape total hatred from McConnell if they vote NO.

[bucolic_frolic]

4. $200,000 credit card debt is a red flag for something

even if it's just poor judgment about personal finance. If you could run up that kind of credit card balance, why would you? Sharply lower rates are available from banks for direct loans. Something fishy is going on here.

"avoid triggering bank reporting" seems a reasonable line of inquiry. As for payoffs, let's see where the money went first.

[Mr.Bill]

5. The tough part to believe

is that a doofus like Kavanaugh could have gotten laid in high school.

[47of74]

8. Well not consensually

[OMGWTF]

10. insert drum sting here

[Grasswire2]

12. "gotten laid" implies consent

That wasn't the case here, evidently.

Which makes your assessment of him correct. He tried to take what he couldn't get.

[Honeycombe8]

6. I'd guess there's some evidence he lied before the committee or in the questionnaire he had to...

or in the questionnaire he probably had to fill out for the Committee and who knows who else.

I doubt he had a credit card, if he was a minor at the time. Unless he made payments in recent years.

Who knows. It's all speculation. It could be anything.

[ThoughtCriminal]

7. Guessing that the incident was in high school, but

payoffs are recent. Why would there be payoffs? A teen abortion in the 80's is no big deal until you are a prospective Supreme Court Justice pandering to the religious right. Not that they really care, but the optics are devastating.

[erronis]

9. I think you and HoneyComb8 are on the right track. The Immoral Majority couldn't care but the FBI

does still care. This has to irk orangefaceass since he thought he pwned the DOJ.

[john657]

11. The FBI has said they have no intention of investigating this letter,

All they did was pass the letter on to the WH to include it in Kavanaugh's background folder.

[lagomorph777]

13. Gambling addict, rapist?

What else ya got? Russiapublicans just don't effing care.