CHECKMATE: THE MANAFORT COOPERATION IS PARDON PROOF

[kpete]

Last edited Fri Sep 14, 2018, 12:53 PM - Edit history (2)

Marcy Wheeler: “At this point, the deal is pardon proof. That was part of keeping the detail secret: to prevent a last minute pardon from Trump undercutting it.”

Reasons why this is pardon proof:

1) Mueller already got the key pieces of testimony a pardon would thwart.
2) Manafort is subject to civil forfeiture; he loses $46M even w/pardon.
3) The dropped charges can be filed in states.

A pardon, at this point, does nothing. Nothing.

I was virtually certain that the plea deal Manafort is pleading to today would include cooperation — and I was correct. Andrew Weissmann told Amy Berman Jackson that the deal does require Manafort cooperation.

I was certain not just because of the tease in the Special Counsel announcement, above, that additional information would be forthcoming.

But the fact that no media outlet was able to confirm whether or not the plea would include cooperation could only be possible if Mueller had made silence about that fact part of the deal. Otherwise, Manafort’s lawyers would have confirmed that it included no cooperation to placate the President.

And at this point, the deal is pardon proof. That was part of keeping the detail secret: to prevent a last minute pardon from Trump undercutting it.

Here’s why this deal is pardon proof:

Mueller spent the hour and a half delay in arraignment doing … something.
It’s possible Manafort even presented the key parts of testimony Mueller needs from him to the grand jury this morning.

The forfeiture in this plea is both criminal and civil, meaning DOJ will be able to get Manafort’s $46 million even with a pardon.

Some of the dismissed charges are financial ones that can be charged in various states.

Remember, back in January, Trump told friends and aides that Manafort could incriminate him (the implication was that only Manafort could). I believe Mueller needed Manafort to describe what happened in a June 7, 2016 meeting between the men. I have long suspected there was another meeting at which Manafort may be the other Trump aide attendee.

And Manafort has probably already provided evidence on whatever Mueller needed.

As I disclosed July, I provided information to the FBI on issues related to the Mueller investigation, so I’m going to include disclosure statements on Mueller investigation posts from here on out. I will include the disclosure whether or not the stuff I shared with the FBI pertains to the subject of the post.


https://www.emptywheel.net/2018/09/14/the-manafort-plea-is-pardon-proof/

Link to tweet

[MattP]

1. He should have plead earlier and kept more money

[flibbitygiblets]

13. Speculation: Some kind of witness protection from the Russians/Ukranians

So far they haven't been bold enough to pull their "polonium tea" trick on American citizens. But Manafort has been acting as a foreign agent for the Russians/Ukranians for decades. He's as good as one of their own. Which has always meant, he talks, he dies. No prison sentence would be worse then what they would do to him (and don't forget), his family.

My guess is that (especially after having to forfeit his $ and after what must be astronomical legal fees), he can't afford to disappear on his own. He'll need help/protection from Uncle Sam. That was almost certainly part of the plea.

[flibbitygiblets]

14. His lawyer's statement just included the line "he wanted to make sure his family remained safe"

the news is only reporting the part the lawyer said about "Manafort has accepted responsibility"; that's what the headline says. But outside the courthouse steps, right after that "accepted responsibility" part, the lawyer said "...he wanted to ensure that his family was able to ...to remain safe"

Hmmm, sounds like they're getting protection!

[lindysalsagal]

40. Father/Husband of The Year, that one.

Wow.

[hlthe2b]

2. I surely hope Bureau of Prisons is on top of keeping him safe... n/t

[Scurrilous]

3. K&R

[lagomorph777]

4. I was curious how "empty wheel" connects to Mueller, got this from her "About" page:

Marcy Wheeler is an independent journalist writing about national security and civil liberties. She writes as emptywheel at her eponymous blog, publishes at outlets including Motherboard, the New Republic, and Al Jazeera, and appears frequently on television and radio. She is the author of Anatomy of Deceit, a primer on the CIA leak investigation, and liveblogged the Scooter Libby trial.

Marcy serves on the Advisory Committee for the House Fourth Amendment Caucus, is a senior fellow at GWU’s Center for Cyber and Homeland Security, and was declared an Internet Human Rights hero by AccessNow.

Marcy has been blogging full time since 2007. She’s known for her live-blogging of the Scooter Libby trial, her discovery of the number of times Khalid Sheikh Mohammed was waterboarded, and for reverse-engineering government surveillance years before it otherwise gets disclosed.

Marcy has a PhD from the University of Michigan

[NewJeffCT]

5. She was also contacted by the FBI (I believe)

not long after the election about a confidential source she had that knew of the direct connection between Russia and somebody on the trump campaign, I believe.

[lagomorph777]

6. All rather mysterious. But her analysis makes a ton of sense.

Not a happy day in Trumpworld!

[Fred Sanders]

8. Plea bargain...not to include anything to placate the president. No Placated president? Sad!

[flibbitygiblets]

16. Manafort's silence was never about Trump loyalty. He was afraid of Putin.

How did an unregistered foreign agent for Ukraine suddenly become Trump's campaign manager, do you suppose? He was installed as Trump's handler/Putin's inside guy. He probably wanted to flip more than any one of those crooked fuckers on Team Trump, but he knew that not only would his life be in jeopardy, so would his family.

Mueller probably knows how to protect people, given all his prior mob-family experience flipping witnesses.

[lagomorph777]

23. Manfort will need plastic surgery and a nondescript apartment in Albuquerque.

Federal Witness Protection Program!

[klook]

38. He can stay in a little room in the back

of a Vietnamese nail salon in a rundown section of ABQ!

[Lucky Luciano]

44. I heard that the Cinnabon in Omaha is hiring...

[red dog 1]

30. She is a regular guest on "Democracy Now" w/Amy Goodman

https://www.democracynow.org/appearances/marcy_wheeler

[lagomorph777]

32. Looks like a good source to follow

[eleny]

7. If he's talked about the June '16 meeting today I hope this means a Jr. will be indicted very soon

[R B Garr]

9. Wonderful! nt

[ananda]

10. This is good ... keeping it pardon proof!

Yay!

[PatrickforO]

11. Manafort is SUCH a dirtbag.

I mean, all we have to do is look at the kind of company Trump keeps and we know exactly what a poop-bag he really is.

My happiest fantasy is watching Trump on national television being taken out of the WH in cuffs.

[Dopers_Greed]

12. Mueller is playing 10 dimensional chess against the Inbred Tanning Bed

[erronis]

18. +1000. Love it. We could take all of his voters IQs and not increase the Inbred Tanning Bed Q.

[meow2u3]

21. Inbred Tanning Bed

ROFLMAO!!

[Danascot]

37. It was Gary Cohn, Trump's former chief economic advisor who said

Trump’s intelligence level that of an “inbred tanning bed", per Woodward's book.

[Power 2 the People]

15. Agent Orange is going down....HARD!

[bucolic_frolic]

17. "At this point"

but at a future point? A pardon won't undo this plea bargain, but it could be some benefit to Manafort at sentencing? Is that what they're saying?

[beastie boy]

19. A better reason why Manafort has been pardon proof all along:

Now that he is worth nothing, both politically and financially, he will never be able to repay what he owes Putin's oligarchs. And they have ways of making you pay no matter what. Just ask Skripal. If they do not abide by spy exchanges, they will certainly not abide by a Trump pardon.

Manafort may have rightfully concluded that he is safer in federal custody than being pardoned and walking free. Just like many Mafia rats before him, he probably decided to take his chances with the federal witness protection program.

[SHRED]

20. Great Twitter thread!!!

[ehrnst]

22. Marcy Wheeler is a reliable source. (nt)

[Timmygoat]

24. I just want to say

I live in awe of Mueller!

[luvallpeeps]

41. and I'll feel indebted to him

Forever.

[red dog 1]

31. + 1

[Hekate]

25. His life and that of his family just changed forever. His family should be very worried. nt

[FailureToCommunicate]

26. A glimmer of hope.

[samnsara]

27. ...maybe manafort knows trumps going down and an impeached or otherwise ex prez cant pardon

[Pepsidog]

28. Donnie's Saturday morning tweet storm should be entertaining.

[matt819]

29. Post of the day goes to kpete

This is great news.

Kind of makes the buffoon's tweets about Manafort keeping quiet pretty silly. Even better.

[red dog 1]

33. K&R

Thanks for posting, Kpete

[oasis]

34. Trump is sweating his ass off.

[Blue Owl]

35. Dear Dotard:

You get NOTHING.

[oswaldactedalone]

36. Countdown in

3, 2, 1... to Dump tweeting, "No collusion, this proves me innocent, illegal witchhunt continues. Sad!"

[mucifer]

39. Also, no lawyer with him in the flipping session and one lie and he goes back to prison for 10 years

[bonniebgood]

42. 3.2.1 Dtrump himself will FLIP/Resign and blame it all

on Russia and the democrats. to save don jr. one can hope.

[gordianot]

43. He will want to keep his ill gotten gains above all else.

As to another human being of any kind they are expendable to Trump Narcissism.

[RobertDevereaux]

45. Dear Mr. Mueller...

Keep on closing that vise about the toxic GOP, one ratchet at a time!

[Ligyron]

46. This is good news indeed and what we hoped for but...

Is NY State, f.i. really going to be able to file charges should Trump issue pardon(s)? It would be political suicide for Trump to do so - not only the House but the Senate would end up in Democrat control one would think if it happened before the election. Afterward?

I'd sure like a little more assurance that double jeopardy or some other dodge in NY state wouldn't somehow arise. Can the Pugs in that state's legislature screw thing up? The new AG there is a treasure for sure but what follows?

Other states are in play, of course, since Trump and Co have exposure in many of them, i.e. California.