Trump's Approval Rating Is Down. Mueller's Is Up. Is There A Connection?
Since taking office, President Trump has faced an onslaught of controversies — allegations of infidelity and shady connections with Russia, backlashes to family separations at the border and criticism of the government’s hurricane response. His poll numbers, although historically low, have remained relatively steady, giving rise to the idea that nothing can move opinions of Trump. That was never really true. And a drop in Trump’s approval ratings in recent weeks is further evidence of that.
What’s behind the decline in Trump’s approval rating? It’s impossible to pinpoint the exact cause(s), but polls released this week suggest that special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russia interference in the 2016 election might have a role in it all.
The important thing here is the timing: On Aug. 20, Trump had a net approval rating of -10 percentage points. On Aug. 21, Paul Manafort, former chairman of Trump’s presidential campaign, was found guilty of bank and tax fraud, and Michael Cohen, who used to be Trump’s lawyer, pleaded guilty to federal crimes related to the Trump campaign. Both were implicated as a result of Mueller’s investigation. And it’s really been since then that we’ve seen the movement in Trump’s approval rating (now -14 points), the generic congressional ballot and, notably, views of the Russia investigation itself.
Let’s start with a new CNN poll that found voters, by a 20 percentage point margin, approved of Mueller (50 percent) over Trump (30 percent) when it comes to the handling of the Russia investigation. Mueller’s approval rating has expanded 9 points since CNN asked the same question in June and 3 points since it asked in early August. Trump’s approval rating, on the other hand, has jumped 1 point since June but dropped 4 points since last month.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-approval-rating-is-down-muellers-is-up-is-there-a-connection/
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