Menendez of NJ may cost the Dems the chance of winning back the Senate

[book_worm]

Menendez leads with 45 percent to Hugin’s 43 percent five weeks before the Nov. 6 election, according to poll numbers of likely voters who say they lean toward one candidate or the other. Libertarian Murray Sabrin pulls 3 percent, while other candidates and undecided voters total 8 percent.

Menendez, who was reprimanded by a Senate ethics panel after corruption charges were dismissed following a mistrial, is viewed unfavorably by 54 percent, with 30 percent having favorable views and 6 percent unsure.

Hugin is viewed favorably by 34 percent and unfavorably by 21 percent, although 43 percent are not familiar with him. Only 10 percent are unfamiliar with Menendez.

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-1001-stockton-poll-shows-us-senate-race-in-nj-a-dead-heat.pdf

The one thing working in Menendez' favor is the strong unpopularity of Donald Trump who has a 64% disapproval rating.

[marylandblue]

1. Should that headline read "Mendendez?"

[Iggo]

2. "Menendez" auto-correcting to "Martinez" ?

[maxsolomon]

3. He should have retired.

But that's not the way America works. Hubris first.

[W_HAMILTON]

4. Virtually zero chance of this happening.

A blue wave that results in us taking back the Senate (excluding the Menendez seat) would be more than enough of a blue wave to retain Menendez's seat.

[FBaggins]

5. Menendez is far from safe...

... but implying that it's a two-point race is also far from fully honest.

It's a lightly-polled race at this point, but the latest legit poll I've seen (Quinnipiac about a week ago) showed him six points up.

[Jersey Devil]

6. Lived in NJ my whole life and never heard of "Stockton University Poll"

I'd wait for Quinniapac or another know, reliable poll before hitting the panic button. Never heard of "Stockton University Poll". Stockton University itself, if memory serves correctly, is a small college in the Atlantic City area that used to hold classes in hotel rooms in Atlantic City.

[Tiggeroshii]

11. Hes still +8 in rcp average

[FBaggins]

14. That includes a 21 point Monmouth poll from April

It's reasonable to assume that it's out of date at this point... but he's definitely more than two points ahead (I'm guessing 5-6).

That's still a dangerous place to be for a dented incumbent who can't seem to get close to 50 percent... but he should be ok given the advantage in energy levels that Democrats enjoy this season.

[Tiggeroshii]

15. Thatenthusiasm gap will likely save him

[FBaggins]

16. I certainly hope so

Most analysts place him as the 6th-8th most endangered Democrat in the Senate. If that seat is legitimately in play then we aren't going to take back the Senate.

[UTUSN]

7. Too bad he's personally a bit shady, esp. since he's a good Dem & rarity a Cuban Dem

[JustAnotherGen]

12. I don't see how Bob is shady

He's a very kind and caring person.

[UTUSN]

17. Granted that I don't have all the charges & trial evidence, but that qualifies as "a bit" no?

Yes, he wasn't found Guilty; isn't re-trial coming? Something about hundreds of thousands in gifts from a friend. Still in the "a bit" territory despite presumption of innocence. I don't doubt that he's "very kind and caring" and I have been thrilled every time I've heard him speaking and forcefully so in his Democratic role, especially his contrast with RUBIO and Carnival CRUZ and the others of Cuban derivation as despicable wingnuts. I'm thrilled that the generations after the First Exiles are generally Democratic.

I'll never learn not to post in shorthand since it takes a ton more words to supply my context. Besides that the longer my context the more room I leave for more disputation and refutations. Oh, well.

[JustAnotherGen]

18. Thank you for giving me more info

It helps us with the 'general public' who are not tuned into this stuff in NJ. We are also a very neglected/overlooked state.

I'm one of the many living here that truly wonder - what's the game the Cons are trying to run? I will always believe this started with a backroom deal between Hugin and Christie.

I was at an event last night with the Governor and quite a few other committee people in my county . . .

The reality is even if he is EVER found guilty - it pales in comparison to Hugin's misdeeds, transition team for Trump, jacking up cancer drug prices, etc. etc.

The Trump Transition team piece comes at the tail end of the ads. The general NJ public does NOT realize that about Bob Hugin. Guy is a scumbag.

[Princess Turandot]

19. He's not being retried. The Feds dropped the case.

I think the votes were 11-1 to acquit when the judge granted a mistrial.

[RhodeIslandOne]

8. He should have declined to run again

That said, I’m not worried about him losing.

[Tiggeroshii]

9. RCP average still +8.3

He needs to keep campaigning and we neeed to have his back, but it still seems like we dont have too much to worry about there just yet.

[JustAnotherGen]

10. He came to our Rally for Separated children

In our teeny tiny town in a VERY bright red portion of NJ.

We thought we might get 50 people - he showed up for hundreds.

He showed up.

He ALWAYS shows up for us. Always. Every single person in NJ.

I do believe that the blue wave is going to sweep him into another term.

I ALSO believe that ALL the nasty Hugin crap has not hit yet.

Brace for your October surprise folks - we've got this. Just have to drop at the right time. . . It's not time yet. It will be soon.

Hugin is going down.

[BumRushDaShow]

13. I think Jerseys have had enough of the GOP - at least this go around

after fiascos like this -



Their worry is the GOP tax giveaway where they, including many GOP residents, will most certainly suffer from being unable to deduct all of their property taxes, which are some of the highest in the country. Their own GOP congress critters, whose seats are threatened now, have been fuming bigly, so they may leave Menendez alone for now. And the good thing is - if something did happen with Menendez, assuming he is re-elected, the governor controls the process and that governor is a Democrat.