538 Republicans Really Could Lose That Tennessee Senate Seat

[Quixote1818]

The Senate race in Tennessee between former Gov. Phil Bredesen and Rep. Marsha Blackburn has flown largely under the radar this year. It’s no wonder, given all the hype about turning Texas blue and how Democratic senators in red states might be imperiled by their Kavanaugh confirmation votes. But Tennessee could be one of the pivotal contests come November.

FiveThirtyEight’s model is slightly split on the race. The polls-only version says the race is a toss-up, but when you factor in the fundamentals — including fundraising and the political climate of the state — the race leans toward Blackburn. My boss, Nate Silver, wrote about this funny little split from the model’s vantage and included lots of juicy historical data. (Is there any other kind??)

But day to day, there’s also a visible strategic difference between the two campaigns. Bredesen, an avowed centrist in the old Southern Democrat tradition, is trying to keep things local and low key — no big-name endorsements, please, unless they’re from Republicans. (Tennessee’s outgoing Republican Sen. Bob Corker all but endorsed Bredesen: “I think he’s got real appeal — I don’t think it, I know it.”) Blackburn, meanwhile, is running a very 2018 game, hoping her fealty to the Trump agenda will earn her votes in a state that the president won with nearly 61 percent of the vote. While the race might be undercovered nationally, it’s one of the most important for partisans, holding outsized power to tip the balance of the Senate. So, best for us to get to know the two principals.

More:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-really-could-lose-that-tennessee-senate-seat/

[k-dub]

1. If we take TENN

Then election night 2018 is gonna be fun. Blackburn is a crackpot of the highest order.

[RockRaven]

2. Good. If Heitkamp loses, and Dems pick up NV and AZ, it could be the 51st Senator.

That presumes Dems hold everywhere else, which seems like a heavy lift, tbh.

[Lunabell]

3. Marsha Blackburn is a flake.

A real looney toons and the people of Tennessee can see that clearly.

[Lucinda]

4. Bredesen was a pretty popular governor.

State finances and Tenncare were both a mess, and he managed to untangle it. I'm a California transplant, but have lived here long enough to see how a Dem can be effective running a largely GOP state.

[kcr]

7. He was governor when I moved there

I lived there myself for 15 years, and still pay attention to the area's politics. I really hope he can pull off this win.

[peggysue2]

5. And Bredesen is a well-known and well-liked candidate

As I said in an earlier thread: the GOP is worried about this race and they have reason for their angst.

Let's give them an old fashion nervous breakdown. Let's win this thing!

[Hermit-The-Prog]

11. lots of TN love him

Hoping Dems don't give up on him. I'm hoping to have some more to donate before the end of the month.

[Celerity]

6. MoveOn just dumped him over his support of Kavanaugh

Same for Manchin.

Liberal group cuts support for Dems Manchin, Bredesen over Kavanaugh

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/410169-liberal-group-cuts-support-for-dems-manchin-bredesen-over-kavanaugh

MoveOn, a progressive outside group, said on Friday that it is cutting support for Democrats in two key Senate races because they are supporting Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

"We're cancelling a planned six-figure digital video ad expenditure for Phil Bredesen in Tennessee due to his Kavanaugh position," the group said in a tweet.

They added that "similarly [we] will be pulling all planned campaigning on behalf of Joe Manchin in West Virginia if he votes yes. Kavanaugh is unfit for the Court."

Manchin became the only Senate Democrat to say he would vote for Kavanaugh on Friday, calling him a "qualified jurist who will follow the Constitution and determine cases based on the legal findings before him."

snip


Not sure of the impact.....

[bearsfootball516]

8. Really seems like cutting off the nose to spite the face here...

Bredesen may not be perfect, but he's a hell of a lot better than Blackburn and him winning is basically essential to Democrats taking back the Senate.

[Celerity]

9. I think they weighed up the situation and didn't want to risk

alienating their donor base, who must be 98 or 99% against any support of the horrid Kavanaugh. Bredesen unfortunately is tanking in the polls. I really think his too-clever-by-half machination of supporting Kavanaugh to try and drawn in cross-over Republican votes has blown up in his face. Volunteers are now leaving his campaign over it and Blackburn is now, unfortunately, surging.

Manchin also has lost some of his lead, if the newest polls are to be believed. I am waiting to see what happens in the next 7 ro 10 days. I think a post mortem may show the Kavanaugh support cost both more core Democratic support than it gained cross-over support. Especially in Tennessee, as West Virginia is much harder to measure.

I would guess they (MoveOn) will focus their monies on other races and not risk alienating their base of financial support for future elections.

Just my theory upon reflection.

[NewJeffCT]

10. Democrats never seem to learn

Manchin and Bredesen are both losing support because the few liberals in their respective states are pissed about Kavanaugh.