Political reporters having a field day reporting on our "diminishing" chances of winning the Senate

[RandySF]

We were originally supposed to be wiped off the map this year and we may yet net 1 or 2 seats.

[Iliyah]

1. No talk about the House?

They want to psych Dems and Indies, but I think people are pretty much pissed.

[manor321]

2. Not sure what you mean

Before the Kavanaugh hearings things looked better for us in the Senate (remember polls showing Beto tied or ahead?).

Now 538 gives us an 18.8% chance of getting control, with the "average" being Republicans picking up 0.6 seats.

[spooky3]

3. Not sure what you mean, either.

538 has never given Dems a chance over about 30% of taking the Senate, because there are so many more Dem seats than Repub seats being defended this year.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

[karynnj]

4. Even now - it is 50% likely that we have the current spread or better

However, of that 50%, 32% is the current spread or the Democrats adding one - with the Republicans staying in control.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. 538 had us at 34.5% toward senate control on September 1

That's from the link you posted. Run the cursor over each specific date and you will see numerous days above 34% in the early going.

34.5% was the high water mark

IMO, that was too high. I posted a thread here on the day the 538 senate model debuted, and they were at 34.3%. Other mathematical models were below 20% at the time.

538 apparently began their chart before actually posting the senate forecast on the website, because that chart begins in August below 30%.

Frankly I took advantage of this. I played Democratic "No" toward senate control at 64 and 65 and 68 cents on Predictit. My average is 65 cents. Obviously I will root the other way but I never have any problem wagering against my partisanship or my favorite sports teams. The Predictit market was overly influenced by 538, while ignoring the vast number of self-identified conservatives in those states we are trying to win.

The media is properly mentioning this, IMO. It is a legitimate trend and therefore story. Several senate races have apparently shifted away from us. Betting odds in Tennessee, North Dakota, Missouri, Texas, Florida and Nevada have moved toward the Republican in recent days or weeks. Some of the moves have been 20% or greater.

[unblock]

5. The fact that we have more than a 3% chance of winning the senate is incredible

We have a horrible map this cycle and a year ago we were thinking it would take a miracle not to lose seats, possibly quite a few seats.

The idea that we could actually pick up seats, n bet mind enough to gain control, was unthinkable a year ago.

[beachbum bob]

6. I rather have the media say whatever and we simply blow GOP up on

Nov 6, then they can say...hell didn't see it coming.

[Raine]

8. IF true isn't it better to know

plus it might put enough fear into the Dems to get out and vote and turn it around.

[Blueman13]

9. At the end of day everyone just has to get out and VOTE

And after all the dusts settles, we will see what happens. I think there will be slight bump towards Democrats as we get further from the Kavanaugh story.I would be thrilled if the 538 forecast goes back to the mid-20's at or near election day. The Senate is just ridiculous for Democrats this year even in a "blue wave." That is why I will take for in second if the senate remains 51-49 or even 52-48 headed into 2020. That will put Democrats in great shape because in 2020 Senate Republicans will be playing defense in a lot of states (Maine, Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa, Alaska, Montana and Texas) off the top of my mind. Not all, but a lot of these seats are winnable.