Poll: Democrats Surging in Pennsylvania

[erpowers]

Pennsylvania was the linchpin of Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, but it could be ground zero of Democrats’ 2018 comeback. Not only are the incumbent Democratic senator and governor prohibitive favorites to win reelection, but Democrats could also pick up as many as a half-dozen congressional seats — roughly a quarter of the seats the party needs nationwide to win back the House.

Fewer than two years after Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to carry Pennsylvania since 1988, a new POLITICO/AARP poll shows both Sen. Bob Casey and Gov. Tom Wolf with double-digit leads over their GOP challengers. And Democrats have a slight edge on the generic congressional ballot — which, combined with a new, court-imposed congressional-district map unwinding GOP gerrymandering, portends major gains in next month‘s elections.

The top issue for voters in Pennsylvania is health care: Nearly 3 in 4, 74 percent, say it’s “very important” to their vote in November, out-rating the economy and jobs (72 percent), Social Security (67 percent) and national security and terrorism (65 percent). For voters 50 and older, Social Security (81 percent) only slightly outpaces health care (79 percent).

In the Senate race, Casey leads Rep. Lou Barletta by 15 percentage points, 47 percent to 32 percent. Casey leads Barletta — a four-term congressman who forged his political identity as an immigration hard-liner as the then-mayor of Hazelton, Pa. — by a similar margin among voters 50 and older, 49 percent to 34 percent.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/10/15/poll-pennsylvania-governor-senate-2018-221307

[blue neen]

1. Governor Wolf also has a fantastic running mate this time, John Fetterman!

It's a great ticket for PA!

[BigGermanGuy]

4. vote for the better man

vote fetterman!

[Scurrilous]

2. K&R

[Freddie]

3. Wonderful news but

WHY did the PSEA (teachers union) endorse Fitzpatrick?? The Repug running for re-election in PA-01. How in the name of God can the teachers union endorse the union-hating (especially public sectors union) party that wants to destroy public schools? The party of Betsy DeVos? Huge sign on the major highway near my house about this. Makes me sick.

[BumRushDaShow]

7. I would so much want to get that seat back!

This used to be the old PA-8 and it had been won by (D) Patrick Murphy in the 2006 wave and he was again re-elected in 2008. But then 2010 came along and completely wiped us off the map here.

Thankfully we are unwinding all the nightmarish gerrymandering that they did here and in fact Eric Holder was just here last week to stump for (D) candidates and help to start working on the state legislative redistricting, which itself had been taken to court several times in 2011 and 2012 before it ended up where it is - a bit less gerrymandered but STILL gerrymandered.

Regarding the redrawn new PA-1 (originally PA-8), it now includes a little more of Montgomery County so I am hoping there can be a little extra (D) turnout to flip it. Fitzpatrick tries to play "moderate" but it's time for that family to go (his brother had the seat previously).

[Cosmocat]

5. A couple of factors

First, PA managed to actually win a redistricting battle with the state supreme court tossing out the old map (one of the very worst, comically brazen) maps in the country. The GOP leadership kept fighting it, but couldn't do anything this go round - they ARE going to try to come back on it if they can. But, the new map was drawn to more accurately reflect PA as a mild blue state - and in a wave election it could go from what was an absurd 13 R/6 D to better than 50/50.

Second, Casey's father was a long standing state level politician, including governor during the hey day of democratic suppport in the state, and his name still carries A LOT of weight. He has blew Santorum out and won going away the last time

Third, Wolf has done a good job and is reasonably well regarded as Governor, and the democratic Lt Governor who was a completely scumbag, lost to a big time up and coming progressive in John Fetterman - that is a really strong ticket AND the R candidate for governor is complete loon - actually just had a video that went viral saying he was going to be put on golf shoes and run over Wolfe's face, something like that.

SO, the top of the ticket is really solid for most years as is.

NOW - the gerrymandering at the state level is just as bad as the congressional one was, but did not get included in the reform.

They key to this election is finding a way to get at least one chamber of state government in D hands going into 2020 and try to go at their districts, and just generally tamp down the republican fuck wittery - the only thing tha that has kept the state from some North Carolina like craziness is Wolf.

[BumRushDaShow]

8. "big time up and coming progressive in John Fetterman"

The ad that Wolf had out with Fetterman was a riot!!!!!

[Cosmocat]

9. Oh yeah

"Maybe next time we can choose some ink."

[DeminPennswoods]

10. Cracks me up every time

Gov Wolf has a really, dry, understated sense of humor. His campaign ads have been running here in western PA for weeks and they are all really well done. No wonder Wagner is mad.

[BumRushDaShow]

12. They have been running them over here in Philly too

I know Wagner had been running his all summer and I was glad to finally see some Wolf ones. Of course this area is pretty blue so he could save it for some of the other parts of the state, although we do have some small pockets of Republicans here as well.

[DeminPennswoods]

13. Seen just a handful of Wagner ads out this way

The last one I saw was one of him denying he said he wanted to tax retirement income. That was immediately followed by a Wolf ad with video of Wagner saying exactly that. Haven't seen a Wagner ad since.

[Wounded Bear]

6. After they un-gerrymandered, there should be several more blue seats than before...

At least that's what it looks like from the outside.

Go PA!!!

[DeminPennswoods]

11. The new districts are compact and fair

There are definitely new districts that will elect republicans, but all this dividing cities (Erie, Reading for ex) and municpalities (Monroeville for ex) is gone.