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Recursion

(56,582 posts)
Wed Oct 17, 2018, 01:46 PM Oct 2018

A global tipping point: Half the world is now middle class or wealthier

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/09/27/a-global-tipping-point-half-the-world-is-now-middle-class-or-wealthier/

This, more than anything else, is why white people around the world are furious and burning shit down.

Something of enormous global significance is happening almost without notice. For the first time since agriculture-based civilization began 10,000 years ago, the majority of humankind is no longer poor or vulnerable to falling into poverty. By our calculations, as of this month, just over 50 percent of the world’s population, or some 3.8 billion people, live in households with enough discretionary expenditure to be considered “middle class” or “rich.” About the same number of people are living in households that are poor or vulnerable to poverty. So September 2018 marks a global tipping point. After this, for the first time ever, the poor and vulnerable will no longer be a majority in the world. Barring some unfortunate global economic setback, this marks the start of a new era of a middle-class majority.

We make these claims based on a classification of households into those in extreme poverty (households spending below $1.90 per person per day) and those in the middle class (households spending $11-110 per day per person in 2011 purchasing power parity, or PPP). Two other groups round out our classification: vulnerable households fall between those in poverty and the middle class; and those who are at the top of the distribution who are classified as “rich.”

Our “middle class” classification was first developed in 2010 and has been used by many researchers. While acknowledging that the middle class does not have a precise definition that can be globally applied, the threshold we use in this work has the following characteristics: those in the middle class have some discretionary income that can be used to buy consumer durables like motorcycles, refrigerators, or washing machines. They can afford to go to movies or indulge in other forms of entertainment. They may take vacations. And they are reasonably confident that they and their family can weather an economic shock—like illness or a spell of unemployment—without falling back into extreme poverty.

By classifying all households in the world into one of these four groups, using income and expenditure surveys from 188 countries, we are able to derive measures of the global distribution of income. Our social enterprise World Data Lab—the maker of World Poverty Clock—has refined these estimates and created a new interactive data model to estimate all income brackets for almost every country for every point in time until 2030 by combining demographic and economic data.
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A global tipping point: Half the world is now middle class or wealthier (Original Post) Recursion Oct 2018 OP
You are EXACTLY correct! yardwork Oct 2018 #1
This seems like good news genxlib Oct 2018 #2
This is good climate news, too Recursion Oct 2018 #3
I see your point genxlib Oct 2018 #7
Peak oil demand was 2014, I think Recursion Oct 2018 #9
Peak oil production predictions have been made since the 1920s former9thward Oct 2018 #14
Not production, demand Recursion Oct 2018 #16
If demand slips behind production prices will quickly fall. former9thward Oct 2018 #19
And yet we're still on course for 10 billion by 2050 NickB79 Oct 2018 #8
Education of girls and women are a more effective contraceptive. irisblue Oct 2018 #17
That is difficult to distinguish from economic development Recursion Oct 2018 #18
... PETRUS Oct 2018 #4
I will never understand how people talk themselves Recursion Oct 2018 #5
Your mind-reading skills leave a lot to be desired. nt PETRUS Oct 2018 #6
Nor will I ever understand how people convince themselves.... LanternWaste Oct 2018 #10
That's working class, not 'middle' n/t leftstreet Oct 2018 #11
What's your distinction between the two? Recursion Oct 2018 #13
Nice to read some good news. Turin_C3PO Oct 2018 #12
Great news. GulfCoast66 Oct 2018 #15

yardwork

(61,599 posts)
1. You are EXACTLY correct!
Wed Oct 17, 2018, 01:50 PM
Oct 2018

This is indeed why "white people around the world are furious and burning shit down."

This is why BREXIT.

This is why right-wing government in Italy elected.

This is why Trump.

Come on, fellow white people. Show some courage.

genxlib

(5,524 posts)
2. This seems like good news
Wed Oct 17, 2018, 01:53 PM
Oct 2018

Until you considerate it in the context of climate change.

I am not sure the Earth can carry the burden of a worldwide middle class.

On a different note, I suspect there is an entire aspect of consumer debt not being considered here. How many of those people are living above their means to be middle class.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
3. This is good climate news, too
Wed Oct 17, 2018, 02:01 PM
Oct 2018

There is no contraceptive in the world as effective as economic development.

genxlib

(5,524 posts)
7. I see your point
Wed Oct 17, 2018, 02:42 PM
Oct 2018

And agree in principal.

But generally speaking, our carbon footprint goes up when we gain economic status. I don't know where the inflection point is between small affluent families and large poor ones.

A great deal matters how the new middle class consumes. If they all want gas burning cars to live in the suburbs then we are dead. Hopefully, there is a new attitude about consuming sustainably that can help.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
9. Peak oil demand was 2014, I think
Wed Oct 17, 2018, 02:48 PM
Oct 2018

Most oil companies project that demand for fossils only goes down from here

India just built the world's biggest solar plant, and hopes to have an all-electric car population within 10 years

former9thward

(31,997 posts)
14. Peak oil production predictions have been made since the 1920s
Wed Oct 17, 2018, 10:41 PM
Oct 2018

All of them wrong.

In 2017 the world achieved a new oil production record of 92.6 million barrels per day (BPD), which is the 8th straight year global oil production has increased. The United States was the world's top oil producer in 2017, exceeding 13 million BPD* for the first time ever. Saudi Arabia was second at 12.0 million BPD, while Russia came in at 11.3 million BPD.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/06/14/world-sets-new-oil-production-record/#42c9ecbd752d

former9thward

(31,997 posts)
19. If demand slips behind production prices will quickly fall.
Thu Oct 18, 2018, 02:15 PM
Oct 2018

Oil prices have been mostly stable and inching higher.

irisblue

(32,969 posts)
17. Education of girls and women are a more effective contraceptive.
Wed Oct 17, 2018, 10:54 PM
Oct 2018

Women who have higher levels of education have less children

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
18. That is difficult to distinguish from economic development
Wed Oct 17, 2018, 11:03 PM
Oct 2018

Because it also goes hand in hand with it. Increase women's and girl's education in a region, and the middle class grows.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
5. I will never understand how people talk themselves
Wed Oct 17, 2018, 02:29 PM
Oct 2018

into being sad about hundreds of millions of people getting out of extreme poverty. But, clearly, you've managed to.

 

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)
10. Nor will I ever understand how people convince themselves....
Wed Oct 17, 2018, 03:17 PM
Oct 2018

that their arrogance alone allows them to be mind-readers. But, clearly...

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
13. What's your distinction between the two?
Wed Oct 17, 2018, 08:51 PM
Oct 2018

The authors defined their terms. What does this distinction add to that?

Turin_C3PO

(13,975 posts)
12. Nice to read some good news.
Wed Oct 17, 2018, 03:19 PM
Oct 2018

As was said above, the birth rate goes down tremendously when economic development occurs.

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)
15. Great news.
Wed Oct 17, 2018, 10:47 PM
Oct 2018

People with options have less kids.

And for the life of me, I don’t understand how and liberal can dislike more people having a better life as we live in our own luxury.

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