It's not just about those arms sales

[babylonsister]

https://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2018/10/its-not-just-about-those-arms-sales.html

Hullabaloo
Wednesday, October 17, 2018
It's not just about those arms sales
by digby



The New York Times reports on another issue that's got the White House nervous about the Saudi killing of a journalist. To be clear, it's likely that Trump truly is concerned about his vaunted arms deal and doesn't want to disrupt his romance with MBS because they have been so nice to him (and paid him millions of dollars.) This is what he cares about. But apparently, they have been planning to try to topple the Iran government by cutting off their ability to sell their oil --- with the help of the Saudi government --- next month.

White House officials are worried that the apparent killing of the dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and Saudi Arabia’s changing account of his fate, could derail a showdown with Iran and jeopardize plans to enlist Saudi help to avoid disrupting the oil market.

Officials said the dilemma comes at a fraught moment for the Trump administration, which is expected to reimpose harsh sanctions against Iran on Nov. 5, with the intent of cutting off all Iranian oil exports.

But to make the strategy work, the administration is counting on its relationship with the Saudis to keep global oil flowing without spiking prices, and to work together on a new policy to contain Iran in the Persian Gulf.

If that carefully coordinated plan moves forward, the Saudis would likely see a significant increase in oil revenue at exactly the moment Congress is talking about penalizing the kingdom over the Khashoggi case. It is one reason that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was sent, with a few hours’ notice, to see King Salman of Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday.

Part of the problem is optics, officials said: Saudi Arabia looks like a brutal ally, including by leading a deadly military campaign in Yemen, just as President Trump and Mr. Pompeo have been casting Iran as the region’s bully.

“It’s a neat trick if you can both sanction a country and partner with them at the same time,” said Richard N. Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, who worked for several Republican presidents. “And it’s not easy to keep the focus on Iran’s behavior when the Saudis are doing terrible things to journalists and dissidents, and bombing children in Yemen.”

snip//

On Nov. 5, the administration is expected to announce that any company that does business with Iran — buying oil, financing projects or investing in the country — will be prohibited from doing business in the United States, including clearing transactions in dollars. It would present a common front with the Saudis, and cast Iran as the source of almost all instability in the Middle East.

That argument, officials have acknowledged, is now in jeopardy.

Guess what? This Iran plan is fraught with danger. The consequences of this confrontation could be catastrophic:

snip//

Maybe we'll get "lucky" and this murder of a Saudi journalist in Turkey will make this move impossible. Or maybe not. Trump shows no sign of causing anything to disrupt his cozy relationship with the Saudis.

If you're wondering why Turkey is behaving the way it is, it may just be to help disrupt this plot to confront Iran. Turkey and Iran's relations have been complicated but since the 2017 Qatar crisis, they allied against the Saudis and the US. And Turkey was against the US withdrawing from the Iran deal. It's a web of shifting alliances that makes it likely Trump and Jared, being dopes, and Bolton and company being extreme ideologues, are subject to manipulation by the Saudis.

[Igel]

1. There's that.

Not just Saudi oil, but the ability to hem in the Iranians.

But let's not forget that many who are saying, "Cut off arms sales to Arabia because of Kashoggi" were, just last month, saying, "Cut off arms sales to Arabia because of Yemeni children." And last year saying, "Cut off arms sales to Arabia because of Islamist support" or "because of human rights." The reason keeps changing, but there's a constant.

Meanwhile we're being told to trust Erdogan and his security apparatus' claims, sight unseen.